Child development lags and learning trajectories in primary school in Uruguay: compensation or divergence? / Rezagos en el desarrollo infantil y trayectorias de aprendizaje en la enseñanza primaria de Uruguay: ¿compensación o divergencia?

We evaluate two rival hypotheses of: (a) divergent trajectories — or cumulative learning gaps — between children with severe and moderate developmental lags and developmentally on-track children; and (b) convergent trajectories — which predict the inverse pattern. We estimate growth curves using panel data from a cohort of students first assessed by the Early Years Evaluation (Uruguay) at the end of kindergarten (age five), assessed up to three times in language and mathematics on an annual basis during years three to five since their transition to first grade. By the third year in school, substantial differences are found in reading and maths skills between children that did and did not show early developmental lags (effects range between .31 and .46 sd). We find a prevalent pattern of divergence in learning gains between years three to five in school (gaps increase by .10 sd per year). Our results suggest that tackling academic gaps will require timely interventions based on early identification of children who are academically at risk. Uruguay has developed early developmental assessment tools and learning monitoring systems, both of which should serve as the basis of an effective early warning system to deal with learning disparities from early ages.