Abstract
Lately, the credit rating agencies have been the subject of significant criticism for failing to warn the investors of the defaults well in advance. Investors in long-term debt instruments are usually risk averse, buy-and-hold types; and hence, for them, the variability of investment-grade default rates is particularly important since they employ simple investment-grade rating cut-offs in the design of their investment eligibility plan. According to ICRA (Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India) and the other credit rating agencies, default means that the company has either already failed in the payment of interest and/or principal as per terms or is expected to fail. The debt rating at no time informs as to how much bond face value holders would recover in the event of a default. The present regulations pertaining to the credit rating agencies preclude the investors and issuers from suing agencies for awarding a particular rating. Hence, credit ratings are of value only as long as they are credible.
This paper tests the reliability of ratings assigned by ICRA on the basis of the actual default rate experience on long-term debt across five sectors over a period of seven years, i.e., 1995–2002. The reason for including only long-term debt instruments for the purpose of analysis is that the assigned rating and its movement can be observed only over a long period. Since the credit rating agencies do not publish ratings that are not accepted by the issuers, this study is limited to only those issues that have been accepted and used by the issuers. The default statistics were examined sector-wise, period-wise, and company/institution-wise. Analyses of the background and business, operating performance, management and systems, financial performance, prospects, key issues, and the reasons cited for defaults were undertaken with respect to all the companies. Simple metrics like default rates by rating grades and rating prior to default were used to analyse whether low ratings (i.e., speculative-grade ratings) were assigned by ICRA to defaulting credits well in advance of default rate. Further, an attempt was made to identify whether companies in default had issued other debt instruments that were rated by other credit rating agencies.
The findings highlight the following:
The performance of the manufacturing sector vis-a-vis other sectors has been dismal. The period of high defaults (1997-1999) coincides with a high interest regime and poor economic conditions in India. ICRA's performance in terms of proper surveillance and provision of timely and complete information about the companies rated by them has not been up to the mark.
The findings certainly draw attention towards the fact that excessive reliance on credit rating needs to be reduced. Since the governance of the credit rating agencies is questionable, adequate steps have to be taken to make them more accountable.