Abstract
In this study, we examine the role of fund characteristics in determining mutual fund performance in India. The data comprises of 237 open-ended Indian equity (growth) schemes during the period April 2007 to March 2013. Using daily dividend adjusted net asset values (NAVs), the risk-adjusted performance is estimated employing conditional version of Carhart (1997) four factor model in a time series regression framework. A range of fund characteristics, namely, the size of fund, growth in size of fund, expense ratio, portfolio turnover, NAV and age of fund, are examined in predictive model in a panel data regression framework that may determine the future performance of the fund. The Hausman specification test is conducted to decide if individual effects are random or fixed. The results of panel regression, based on fixed effects estimator, show that the size of fund, growth in size of fund and NAV negatively affect one period ahead risk-adjusted performance in India, while the age of fund has a positive impact. Expense and portfolio turnover ratios do not play a significant role. Identification of significant fund characteristics offer valuable insights to investors as it will allow them to make prudent selection of mutual funds and make judicious investment decisions.
Introduction
In the current scenario, mutual funds as a means of investment are attaining immense popularity and drawing the attention of investors at large to invest in various securities through the expertise and knowledge of qualified professionals. The Mutual fund industry in India is more than five decades old. The year 1964 saw the birth of the first asset management company (AMC) in India: Unit Trust of India (UTI). Unit Scheme 1964 (US-64) was the first scheme launched by UTI in 1964 followed by Mastershare in 1986. As the mutual fund industry gained momentum, the Indian market witnessed the setting up of many public sector mutual funds from 1987. From 1993, the doors were opened to private sector players, both Indian and foreign. In 1996, a comprehensive regulatory framework was established under Securities and Exchange Board of India, SEBI (Mutual Fund) Regulations 1996 1 which brought all the mutual funds under its framework and provided a level playing field to them. The year 2002 witnessed the splitting up of UTI into two separate entities: UTI-I which includes US-64 and UTI-II which manages net asset value (NAV)-based schemes. In March 2016, 42 mutual fund houses operated in India (33 private and 9 public) offering 2,420 schemes with assets under management (AUM) as on 31 March 2016 being US$ 189.66 billion.
The booming mutual fund industry in India is catching the attention of academicians, researchers, policymakers and investors, both retail and institutional. The academic world has always remained inquisitive of this growth and its underlying reasons. A number of studies conducted in this area not only analyze the performance of mutual funds but also try to identify fund characteristics determining fund performance. Empirical evidence suggests that fund-specific characteristics such as the size of fund, management fee and age of fund have significant influence on performance of the fund (Carhart, 1997; Christensen, 2003; Droms & Walker, 1996; Elton, Gruber & Blake, 1993; Ippolito, 1989; Low, 2012; Mansor, Bhatti & Ariff, 2015 Sharpe, 1966). Also, there is a segment of research which analyses managerial characteristics such as education, age and experience of managers in determining fund performance (Chevalier & Ellison, 1999; Golec, 1996; Gottesman & Morey, 2006; Huang & Shi, 2013).
Identification of significant fund characteristics is of great consequence for investors as it will allow them to make a prudent selection of mutual funds and make judicious investment decisions. Thus, the objective of the study is to examine the role of fund characteristics in determining mutual fund performance in India.
In the Indian context, influence of fund characteristics on fund performance is less explored, with focus limited to characteristics such as sponsorship of funds (public or private, Indian or foreign), investment objective (growth, income and balanced), fund structure (open-ended and close-ended) and past performance of fund (Alekhya, 2012; Arshdeep, 2011; Bawa & Brar, 2011; Dhar, 2003; Garg, 2014; Pandey & Sudesh, 2005; Panwar & Madhumati, 2006). International evidence provides other important fund attributes, for instance, the size of fund, growth in size of fund, NAV and portfolio turnover that impact the performance of funds (Belgacem & Hellara, 2011; Low, 2010; Prather, Bertin & Henker, 2004; Yap & Pierce, 2008). Further, Indian studies have estimated the performance of funds using traditional measures such as Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen measures (Alekhya, 2012; Arshdeep, 2011; Panwar & Madhumati, 2006; Prasad & Prasad, 2012). Also, these studies have primarily used a lower (monthly) frequency of data while analyzing fund performance (Arshdeep, 2011; Goel, Sharma & Mani, 2012). The application of panel data estimation to capture the effects of various fund characteristics on future fund performance is limited. 2
The present study attempts to fill this important research gap by examining a range of fund characteristics, namely, the size of fund, growth in size of fund, expense ratio, portfolio turnover, NAV and age of fund that may determine future performance of the fund. The risk-adjusted performance of mutual funds is measured using the conditional version of Carhart (1997) four factor model (following a conditional performance evaluation approach suggested by Ferson and Schadt, 1996). Since the risk exposure of mutual funds change over time, the Carhart model is estimated using daily observations as it allows the performance of funds to be evaluated over short time horizons in a more reliable manner (Bollen & Busse, 2001; Gallefoss, Hansen, Haukass & Molnar, 2015; Goetzmann, Ingersol & Ivkovic, 2000; Sehgal & Jhanwar, 2008). Following Chevalier and Ellison (1999) and Yap and Pierce (2008), a predictive model in a panel data framework has been adopted for examining relationship between fund performance and its characteristics. The predictive relationship model is superior to a realized relationship model as it allows the investors and fund managers to have a futuristic orientation towards fund characteristics that are expected to influence performance of fund. The study covers a large number of mutual fund schemes (namely 237) for a more recent time period (2007 to 2013).
The study is organized as follows: the second section provides a relevant review of the literature. The third section describes data and their sources. The fourth section provides details of the mutual fund performance model. The fifth section covers methodological issues. The sixth section details the empirical results. The last section provides a summary and concluding observations.
Review of Literature
Review of the previous literature helps in preparing the following list of fund characteristics to be used in the current study for examining the relationship between these characteristics and performance.
Data
Mutual Funds Data
The study focuses on 237 open-ended Indian equity-based schemes with growth as their objective. The sample period spans from April 2007 to March 2013 3 which witnesses the global financial crisis in August 2007. Considering 9 August 2007 (Filardo et al., 2010), when global financial recession sets in, as the demarcation date, we account for its effect on risk-adjusted performance of fund managers.
Daily dividend adjusted NAVs 4 for the sample schemes are drawn from MFI explorer, the mutual fund database offered by ICRA online limited. The daily NAV values are used to calculate percentage returns, which are employed in the subsequent estimation procedure. The sample observations vary from scheme to scheme as certain mutual fund schemes are being launched subsequent to April 2007. Thus, the observations considered for such schemes are from the date of their inception till March 2013.
Benchmark Indices
For estimating the risk-adjusted performance of mutual funds employing the conditional Carhart (1997) model, the S&P Bombay Stock Exchange 500 index (henceforth, BSE 500 Index) is used as a proxy for market performance. Covering 20 major industries of the economy, it represents about 93 per cent of the total market capitalization on the BSE. It is a broad-based, value-weighted (free-float weighted) index constructed on lines of S&P 500, USA. Daily closing index values are used to compute percentage daily market index returns.
The Carhart (1997) model requires the construction of size, value and momentum factors in addition to the market factor. For the purpose, the constituent stocks of BSE 500 Index are used as sample securities to construct size, value, momentum factors on daily basis. Closing-adjusted stock prices of the BSE 500 Index stocks are used to compute percentage daily returns on sample securities. Closing prices of the securities are adjusted for capitalization changes, such as stocks dividends, stock splits and rights issues.
For constructing size and value factors, natural log of Market Capitalization (MCAP is total market value of a company’s outstanding shares) and Price–to-Book value (P/B ratio is security’s market price divided by its book value) of BSE 500 Index stocks at the end of March of year t are employed respectively. For constructing price momentum factor, the daily closing adjusted share prices of BSE 500 Index stocks for period April of year t − 1 to March of year t are used. The annual data for MCAP and P/B ratio has been obtained from March 2007, whereas the stock price data has been collected from April 2006 to estimate price momentum. Data source is CMIE Prowess, a popularly used financial software in India.
Additionally, the 91-day treasury-bills rate is used as a proxy for risk-free rate of return and is extracted from the official website of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Central Bank of India.
Public Information Variables
Following Ferson and Schadt (1996), we employ economic variables that have been widely used in several studies for predicting security returns and risks over time (see Bauer, Derwall & Otten, 2007; Elton et al., 2012; Moreno & Rodriguez, 2009; Roy & Deb, 2004; Sawicki & Ong, 2000). The variables are as follows: (a) Dividend Yield (DY) is defined as previous 12 months dividend payments for index stocks divided by the price level at the end of the previous month. DY on CNX 500 Index is collected from the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) website; (b) Treasury Bill yield (TB) is the yield on the treasury bill index as compiled by the NSE. Data source is the NSE website; (c) Term Structure of interest rates (TS) is computed as the difference of yield on 10-year government bond index (long-term bonds) and treasury bill index (short-term bonds). Data on 10-year government bond index and treasury bill index are collected from Bloomberg database and NSE website respectively; and (d) Corporate Default Risk spread (DRS) in the corporate bond market is measured as difference of yield on BBB-rated 10-year corporate bond (low-grade bonds) and AAA-rated 10-year corporate bond (high-grade bonds). Data is collected from Bloomberg database.
Mutual Funds Characteristics Data
The choice of the study period, that is, April 2007 to March 2013 is ascribed to the non-availability of data on fund characteristics for preceding years. Particularly, data on portfolio turnover ratio (PTR) is accessible from March 2007. Portfolio turnover, being an important fund characteristic representing the actively managed mutual fund portfolio, is not omitted from study.
Fund characteristics used in the study are the size of fund, growth in size of fund, expense ratio, portfolio turnover ratio, NAV and age of fund. Since, we use predictive model for panel data regression where relationship between fund performance of year t and characteristics of year t − 1 is examined, hence, the time period used for dependent variable, that is, risk-adjusted performance, is from April 2007 to March 2013 and for independent variables, that is, fund characteristics is from April 2006 to March 2012. Average values are computed for the characteristics for each financial year.
Fund Characteristics Used in the Study
The data pertaining to all these variables except FUNDAGE have been collected from MFI explorer, the mutual fund database offered by ICRA online limited. In case of FUNDAGE, launch date and redemption date of mutual fund schemes have been collected from the website
Model Specification
The relationship between fund characteristics and fund performance is examined by following a two-step procedure involving time series regression (performance measurement of mutual funds) and panel data regression (fund characteristics determining performance of mutual funds). First, a time series regression is carried out to estimate each fund’s risk-adjusted performance on an annual basis. Next, the intercept (alpha, a risk-adjusted measure of performance) generated in time series regression is used as the dependent variable in panel data regression with various fund characteristics serving as independent variables.
Time Series Regression
A comprehensive study of performance benchmarks, conducted by Otten and Bams (2004) for US mutual funds, finds Carhart (1997) four factor model to be statistically the strongest model in conditional setting. In Indian context, Sehgal and Babbar (2017) also suggest conditional version of Carhart (1997) four factor asset pricing model as the optimal performance benchmark to evaluate mutual fund performance. The previous research uses Carhart (1997) model in conditional as well as unconditional settings as it includes size, book-to-market equity and momentum factors, and it lends more explanatory power to estimate alphas of funds (Bollen & Busse, 2001; Kaushik & Pennathur, 2012; Lai & Lau, 2010; Sehgal & Jhanwar, 2008).
Therefore, in the current study, the conditional version of Carhart (1997) four factor asset pricing model is employed as a performance benchmark to measure risk-adjusted performance of mutual funds in India.
Traditionally, the performance of mutual funds is measured using unconditional measures of performance based on the assumption that the expected returns and betas of funds remain constant over time as managers use no information available about the economy to form expectations and to modify their investment strategies. However, empirical evidence provides that the expected returns and risks of funds are not constant but time variant (Bansal & Harvey, 1999; Bessler, Drobetz & Zimmerman, 2009; Ferson & Schadt, 1996; Sawicki & Ong, 2000). In such a case, unconditional measures of performance using fixed betas for the evaluation period may lead to unreliable estimates of alphas by confusing common time variation in risks and risk premiums with superior performance generated by mutual fund managers (Ferson & Schadt, 1996).
Acknowledging the dynamic nature of betas, Jagannathan and Wang (1996) examine the conditional version of capital asset pricing model (CAPM), where expected return of an asset is a linear function of its conditional beta depending on the information available at any point in time. They argue that the assumption of unconditional CAPM of betas being constant over time is not an appropriate assumption and conclude that the conditional CAPM explains the cross-section of returns much better than unconditional model. In a similar vein, Ferson and Schadt (1996) advocate a conditional performance evaluation (CPE) approach, consistent with the semi-strong form of market efficiency as interpreted by Fama (1970). 6 They evaluate the conditional performance of mutual funds by exploring the effects of incorporating lagged information variables (IVs) in the analysis of investment performance. According to them, an actively managed investment strategy that may be reconstructed by using information available in public domain should not be accredited with a superior performance.
The present study uses the CPE approach as proposed in Ferson and Schadt (1996). They propose following conditional form of model based on CAPM incorporating time varying beta βpm (Zt–1) of portfolio p which is conditional on an observable set of instruments (Zt–1):
that is, errors on average are zero and not correlated with market risk premium,
where,
Rpt – Rft = excess returns on managed portfolio p at time t,
RMt – Rft = excess returns on market index at time t,
Rft = risk-free rate of return at time t,
βpm (Zt–1) = conditional betas of portfolio p that depends on information vector (Zt–1) at time t − 1.
The time variation in betas is incorporated in the performance measurement model using lagged publicly available IVs. Hypothesizing that the fund manager uses only public information available at time t − 1 (denoted by Zt–1) to predict returns and risks at time t, it is deduced that the fund’s portfolio beta depends only on Zt–1.
Using the Taylor series expansion, beta of the fund (βpm(Zt–1)) is expressed as a linear function of Zt–1, that is,
where,
zt–1 = Zt–1 – E(Z) = a vector of deviations of Zt–1 from the unconditional means measuring the unexpected change in the IV.
Bp,MKT = E(βpm(Zt–1)) = an expected conditional beta which is a constant and may be interpreted as an average beta, that is, the unconditional mean of the conditional beta.
Bp,IV = the sensitivity of the conditional beta with respect to deviations of the IVs from their means. This part varies depending on the information available at a point in time.
Primarily, this class of models assumes that returns and risks in time t can be predicted at time t − 1, utilizing publicly available IVs whose values are realized in time t − 1. The core idea of CPE is to eliminate, from the performance measure, an effect of investment strategy which may be replicated using publicly available information, consistent with the semi-strong form of market efficiency as interpreted by Fama (1970).
Following Ferson and Schadt (1996), the present study assumes beta of the fund to be a linear function of information vector (Zt–1) which comprises of IVs, namely, DY, TB, slope of term structure and corporate default risk spread. All IVs are demeaned and used in their lagged form.
Conditional Carhart (1997) Four Factor Model
Carhart (1997) four factor asset pricing model adds Jegadeesh and Titman’s (1993) momentum factor besides market, size and value factors. Momentum is a phenomenon which implies that past winners continue to be future winners, while past losers continue to be future losers over the next 3 to 12 months of the portfolio-holding period. In a time series regression framework, the excess returns on equity portfolios are regressed on market premium, zero investment portfolios for size, book equity to market equity and a year momentum in stock returns. The four factor model explains the significant amount of variation in excess portfolio returns relative to CAPM and Fama and French (1993) three factor models. In the present study, P/B is used in place of book equity (BE)-to-market equity ratio (ME). Hence, LMH (low minus high P/B) factor is constructed in place of HML (high minus low BE/ME) factor. Low P/B stocks represent value stocks.
The conditional version of Carhart (1997) four factor model is estimated in the following form:
where,
Rpt – Rft = excess returns on managed portfolio p at time t.
RMt – Rft = excess returns on market index at time t.
αp = the intercept term, conditional alpha, measures the stock selection ability of mutual fund portfolio p. It is the average difference between the actual returns on mutual fund portfolio and the expected returns on dynamic investment strategy conditional on state of the economy.
SMBt = size factor measured as difference between the average returns on portfolio of small and large market capitalization stocks.
LMHt = value factor measured as difference between the average returns on portfolio of low and high P/B stocks.
WMLt = stock momentum factor measured as difference between the average returns of portfolio of winners and losers stocks.
βmkt,smkt, lmkt, wmkt = sensitivity coefficients with respect to fundamental risk factors, namely, market, size, value and stock momentum respectively.
βp,dy, βp,tb, βp,ts, βp,drs, sp,dy, sp,tb, sp,ts, sp,drs, lp,dy, lp,tb, lp,ts, lp,drs, wp,dy, wp,tb, wp,ts, wp,drs = sensitivity coefficients with respect to interaction terms between fundamental risk factors and lagged values of IVs, namely, DY, TB, TS and DRS.
dyt–1, tbt–1, tst–1, drst–1 = demeaned IVs.
∈ pt = error term.
Panel Data Regression
Further, to examine the role of fund characteristics in determining mutual fund performance in India, panel data regression analysis is conducted. Following Chevalier and Ellison (1999) 7 and Yap and Pierce (2008), relationship of fund characteristics with risk-adjusted performance is determined using predictive model in panel data regression where risk-adjusted performance (dependent variable), measured as alpha or intercept provided by conditional Carhart model, for year t is regressed against fund characteristics for year t − 1(independent variables).
The following equation is used in the study:
where
p = 1, 2, 3………, 237. N = 237 (number of schemes)
t = 2007–2008, 2008–2009………., 2012–2013. T = 6 (time Period)
αp,t = conditional alpha which measures the stock selection ability or risk-adjusted performance of mutual fund p in period t estimated using conditional Carhart (1997) four factor model employing equation (5),
β0 = a constant,
β1, β2, β3, β4, β5, β6 = sensitivity coefficients,
AUMp,t–1 = size of fund p in period t − 1,
GRAUMp,t–1 = growth in size of fund p in period t − 1,
EXPp,t–1 = expense ratio of fund p in period t − 1,
PTRp,t–1 = PTR of fund p in period t − 1,
NAVp,t–1 = net asset value of fund p in period t − 1,
FUNDAGEp,t–1 = age of fund p in period t − 1,
ept = an error term.
Estimation Procedure
The risk factors are constructed to be incorporated as explanatory variables in time series regression, that is, conditional Carhart (1997) four factor asset pricing model. We compute daily excess returns for each sample fund for the sample period using dividend adjusted NAVs. The NAV-based returns are net of expenses and management fees but are gross of any load charges. 8 Excess returns on fund are computed as the difference between NAV-based percentage returns and risk-free rate of return. Excess returns on market index are similarly estimated as difference between index values based percentage returns on BSE 500 Index and risk-free rate of return.
For constructing size and value factors, methodology suggested by Fama and French (1993) is adopted. First, BSE 500 Index stocks are ranked as per MCAP (at the end of March of year t) and median MCAP is used to divide them into two groups where the top 50 per cent are classified as big (B) and bottom 50 per cent are classified as small (S). Next, they are ranked on P/B ratio (at the end of March of year t), and median P/B ratio is used to divide them in two groups where the top 50 per cent are classified as high (H) and bottom 50 per cent are classified as low (L). The intersection of the two MCAP and two P/B groups leads to the formation of four equally weighted, double-sorted portfolios, 9 namely, BIG-HIGH (B/H), BIG-LOW (B/L), SMALL-HIGH (S/H) and SMALL-LOW (S/L), where B/H represents large cap and high P/B stocks and so on. Daily returns are computed on each portfolio for the period April of year t to the March of year t + 1. Using fresh information on MCAP and P/B for sample stocks, at the end of March of every year, the portfolios are rebalanced starting from March 2007 to March 2012.
Size factor is expressed as Small Minus Big (SMB) and is computed as:
This size factor is independent of value factor by construction. Value factor is expressed as Low Minus High (LMH) and similarly estimated, which is free from any size effects by construction as given below:
In the present study, P/B is used in place of BE/ME. Hence, LMH (low minus high P/B) factor is constructed in place of HML (high minus low BE/ME) factor. Accordingly, the interpretation of value factor will be inverse.
For constructing Carhart (1997) momentum factor, sample stocks are ranked as per average daily returns calculated from April of year t − 1 to March of year t, that is, a year immediately prior to portfolio formation. These ranked stocks are then grouped into five equally weighted portfolios—P1 to P5—which are held for next 1 year, that is, from April of year t till March of year t + 1. The top 20 per cent past performers are denoted as P5 or winners portfolio, and the bottom 20 per cent based on past returns are denoted as P1 or losers portfolio. Portfolios are rebalanced annually starting from 2007 to 2012. The momentum factor, WML (winners minus losers), is estimated as the difference between average returns on winners (P5) and losers portfolios (P1).
The multiple time series regression analysis is conducted using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method for estimating the model. Also, an intercept dummy variable is incorporated in the model to account for global financial crisis. Before August 9, 2007, dummy takes the value ‘0’, and on and after this date, dummy assumes the value ‘1’. The statistical significance of the parameters is tested at 5 per cent level (two-tailed basis).
Wherever necessary, White (1980) heteroscedasticity consistent standard errors and Newey and West (1987) heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors are computed. Corrections are made for multicollinearity 10 following the approach suggested by Giliberto (1985) and Lance (1988). The transformed variables are used for further estimation purposes.
Conditional Carhart model is estimated for 6 individual years starting from April 2007 to March 2013 for sample schemes. Alphas, interpreted as a measure of risk-adjusted performance of mutual fund managers, are used as dependent variable in panel data regression analysis.
A panel of 237 sample schemes is created for 6 years. It is a short panel with T = 6 and N = 237, where T being time period and N being number of schemes. The study at the outset carries out pooled regression and conducts a Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects (chi-square statistic is 0.01 and p value is 0.46). Further, the study conducts a Hausman specification test to decide if individual effects are random or fixed. Hausman test results in favour of fixed effects model (chi-square statistic is 246.53 and p value is 0.00; Table 1). Results of panel regression in the study are, therefore, based on fixed effects estimator.
For panel data regression, the problem of multicollinearity among explanatory variables is examined through pair-wise correlation and variance inflation factor (VIF) between them (Table 2). Correlations show the linear association between the fund characteristics. Correlation coefficient is found to be high (greater than 0.50) in case of fund age and NAV (0.65). High correlation implies older funds tend to give higher NAVs which may actually be an outcome of compounding effects owing to reinvestment clause in most funds schemes. High correlation between the fund characteristics may be driven by multico-llinearity between them. However, VIF is found to be below 2 for all explanatory variables assuring that multicollinearity is not a serious problem in the present case (Gujarati, 2004). To correct heteroscedasticity across individuals and autocorrelation over time within individuals, cluster-robust standard errors of fixed effects model are computed that cluster on individual.
Panel Data Analysis: Fixed Effects Estimator
Mean Correlation Matrix and Variance Inflation Factor Matrix for Fund Characteristics
Empirical Results
Descriptive Statistics
Panel A of Table 3 presents the average descriptive statistics for sample mutual fund schemes and various benchmark portfolios used in the study over the period April 2007 to March 2013. The mutual funds schemes exhibit average excess returns of −0.00522 per cent (annualized 11 excess returns of 1.30 per cent) during the sample period. The mutual fund schemes exhibit negative excess returns since the global financial crisis period. Only 81 out of 237 schemes provide positive excess returns, that is, returns over and above risk-free rate of return. 156 schemes, however, observe negative excess returns, while 153 out of those schemes report higher negative excess returns than that of market which generates an average annualized excess return of −0.11 per cent. For the sample period, particularly, Sahara Banking and Financial Services Fund, launched in 2008–2009, exhibits the highest daily average excess return of 0.06550 per cent (annualized 16.37 per cent), whereas Escorts Infrastructure Fund reports the lowest daily average excess return of −0.08830 per cent (annualized −22.07 per cent). 12
The annualized average standard deviation of returns of mutual fund schemes remains around 17 per cent for the sample period. The highest volatility is observed in case of JM Hi Fi Fund and the least volatile scheme is Principal Resurgent India Equity Fund.
The average skewness for sample schemes is 0.16 ranging from −5.87 (Sahara Taxgain fund) to 10.45 (Sahara Infrastructure Fund) through April 2007 to March 2013 period. Approximately 55 per cent of the 237 schemes exhibit negative skewness. Return distributions of all the mutual fund schemes are leptokurtic. Jarque-Bera (JB) normality test is applied for testing whether the series is normally distributed. JB statistic is statistically significant at 5 per cent level for all mutual fund schemes, confirming that their returns distributions are non-normal in nature.
The average excess returns for market index (S&P BSE 500 index) are negative (annualized −0.11 per cent). In contrast, the annualized standard deviation is 26.55 per cent, indicating that high risk associated with the market index is not fetching adequate returns for the investors. The market index exhibits little skewness but strong leptokurtosis over the study period. JB statistic is 4580.05, suggesting that the distribution of the market index is not normal owing to leptokurtosis.
The annualized average returns for SMB associated with size factor are 11.17 per cent. The positive SMB, referred to as the size premium, indicates that stocks of firms with smaller MCAP outperform stocks of firms with larger MCAP during the study period in the Indian market. On the other hand, the average standard deviation associated with size factor is around 8 per cent. The SMB factor exhibits negative skewness and leptokurtosis during the sample period. JB statistic of 699.37 for the sample period confirms the non-normal distribution of the returns from size factor.
Panel A: Descriptive Statistics for Sample Schemes and Factor Portfolios
The average annualized returns for LMH representing the value factor are 0.77 per cent. However, the volatility in returns measured by standard deviation is almost 8 per cent. The positive average returns for LMH, referred to as value premium, indicates that stocks of firms with low P/B ratio (value stocks) tend to outperform stocks of firms with high P/B ratio (growth stocks) during the study period in the Indian market. The positively skewed and leptokurtic distribution of returns is observed for LMH factor and high value of JB statistic (107.98) for the total period suggests that the series is not normally distributed.
The mean returns for WML associated with momentum in stock returns also are positive for the sample period. This implies that the winner stocks (over past 12 months) on an average have generated larger returns than loser stocks (over past 12 months) signifying the presence of stock momentum effect in the Indian market for the sample period studied. The non-normality of distribution of returns is confirmed through JB statistic.
Panel B of Table 3 presents the description of fund characteristics over the period April 2006 to March 2012. The number of mutual fund schemes shows a 73 per cent increase, from 756 schemes in 2006–2007 to 1,309 schemes in 2011–2012. Average size of fund during the sample period is ₹6,258.76 million (USD 96.29 million) with a maximum of ₹7,228.75 million (USD 111.21 million) in 2010–2011. On individual analysis of schemes, HDFC Equity Fund shows the highest average AUM (₹55,524.9 million) and Escorts Leading Fund reports the lowest average AUM (₹9.52 million) during the sample period. Average growth rate of AUM amounts to 2 per cent over total sample period, indicating inflows of money to the total corpus of mutual fund houses. Maximum average growth rate observed is 76.05 per cent in case of Sahara Banking and Financial Services Fund and a minimum average growth rate is –54.74 per cent in case of BNP Paribas Mid Cap Fund. Average expense ratio over the years is about 2.25 per cent, which remains similar throughout the sample period indicating that different funds may charge differently, but the ceiling rate set by SEBI does not allow funds to deviate much while charging its annual recurring expenses. 13 When analyzed on individual basis, it is observed that Birla Sun Life Small & Midcap Fund reports the highest average expense ratio (3.69 per cent) and LIC Nomura MF Growth Fund has the least average expense ratio (1.71 per cent) through the sample period. The average turnover ratio for the sample period is 89.34 per cent, with a maximum of 101.07 per cent observed in 2008–2009 and a minimum of 75.03 per cent in 2011–2012. For the total sample period, on an average, Religare Invesco Equity Fund and Franklin Pharma Fund report the highest (263.11 per cent) and lowest (4.1 per cent) portfolio turnover ratios respectively. Average NAV for sample schemes is about ₹32.90. Average age of fund is about 6.56 years. The oldest mutual fund scheme in our sample is UTI Mastershare, and the youngest mutual fund scheme is UTI Top 100 Fund.
Time Series Regression
The time series regressions for 237 mutual fund schemes using conditional Carhart (1997) four factor model is estimated for 6 individual years starting from April 2007 to March 2013 for sample schemes. Table 4 reports annual alpha of 237 mutual fund schemes estimated using conditional Carhart (1997) four factor model in a time series regression framework. These alphas interpreted as a measure of risk-adjusted performance of mutual fund managers are employed as dependent variable in panel data regression analysis.
Panel B: Annual Averages of the Fund Characteristics
Alpha (risk-adjusted returns) of 237 Mutual Fund Schemes Estimated Using Conditional Carhart (1997) Four Factor Asset Pricing Model in a Time Series Regression Framework
Panel Data Regression
Table 1 reports results of panel data regression using fixed effects estimator employing equation (6) for the sample period spanning from April 2007 to March 2013.
F-statistics of fixed effects model is 19.01, implying goodness of fit of the model. Thus, fund characteristics pertaining to a period jointly affect one-period-ahead risk-adjusted performance.
Analysis of individual fund characteristics is as follows:
The statistically significant constant suggests that there may be some unobserved factors which are not captured through the present regression model. These unobserved factors may be managerial attributes such as manager’s experience, education, age, etc. Such factors could not be included in the model because of non-availability of data.
Broadly, AUM, GRAUM, NAV and FUNDAGE are found to be statistically significant characteristics in predicting the performance of mutual funds in India, whereas EXP and PTR share insignificant relationship with performance of fund.
Thus, results indicate that funds with small size, low growth in AUM, low NAVs and old by age provide higher one-period-ahead risk-adjusted performance. Expense and portfolio turnover ratios of fund are not found to have any marked effect on fund performance.
Summary and Concluding Observations
The study examines a range of fund characteristics, namely, the size of fund, growth in size of fund, expense ratio, portfolio turnover, NAV of fund and age of fund that may determine future performance of mutual funds in India. Using a sample of 237 open-ended Indian equity (growth) schemes from April 2007 to March 2013, a two-stage analysis is performed to capture this relationship. Firstly, alpha, risk-adjusted performance of funds, is generated using the conditional version of Carhart (1997) four factor model in a time series regression framework. Annual risk-adjusted performance for 237 schemes become the input for the second stage analysis, where panel data regression is estimated using fixed effects estimator.
The results suggest that size of fund, growth in size of fund and NAV negatively affect performance of fund, while age of fund has a positive impact. Besides, the portfolio turnover and expenses incurred by fund houses in respect of operations, management, brokerage or commission do not show any significant impact on performance of the fund. The findings of this study are consistent with Ippolito (1989), Dahlquist et al. (2000), Yap and Pierce (2008), Low (2010, 2012), Ferreira et al. (2012) and Lobao and Gomes (2015).
These findings have implications for mutual fund investors, fund managers and the academic community. While selecting mutual fund schemes, investors require being conversant with investment actions of fund managers; however, such actions are not directly observable by them. In such a scenario, findings exhibiting the relationship between fund characteristics and performance offer valuable insights to investors in making judicious investment decisions. The study suggests that it may be better for investors to route their investments in small-sized funds, low growth in AUM funds, low NAV funds and older funds having past track record. The funds with these attributes have the potential of generating high risk-adjusted returns. Further, expenses charged and active turnover of portfolio by mutual funds might be overlooked as these characteristics exhibit no significant influence on future performance of fund.
From a fund manager’s perspective, the study highlights those fund characteristics that may have bearing on performance of funds which they manage.
These findings are definitely advantageous to academicians and researchers as the literature on relationship between fund characteristics and fund performance is limited with respect to the Indian mutual fund industry. In an Indian context, this study has been the first attempt to apply predictive relationship model in a panel data framework. The present study fills the important research gap and contributes to the mutual funds literature by identifying significant fund characteristics determining investment performance.
