Are Liberal Democracies Failing to Mitigate Climate Change?: A Case Study of OECD Countries

This study examines the relationship between liberal democracy and climate performance. In the econometric analysis conducted using the panel ARDL model, the long-term effects of liberal democracy, climate change performance, urban population, and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) on carbon emissions (CO₂) are analyzed based on OECD member countries. We find that an increase in the level of liberal democracy increases carbon emissions in the long term, while improved climate performance significantly reduces emissions. It means that liberal democracy not only generates a “demand for climate mitigation” but also a “demand for climate-insensitive economic growth and urbanization.” If the institutional capacity for climate mitigation cannot balance these demands, an increase in carbon emissions will be inevitable. In this context, we argue that relationship between liberal democracy and climate change performance is not linear, but “conditional”. Liberal democracies can only succeed in climate mitigation when a certain institutional capacity threshold is exceeded. This capacity can be increased with the following concrete policy recommendations for OECD countries: To base carbon reduction targets on permanent/legislative rather than temporary/political grounds, to strengthen emission monitoring and reporting mechanisms, and to encourage investments in renewable energy. To expand investments in electric public transport and low-carbon transportation systems, and develop energy-efficient building standards. To focus not only on the rate of growth but also on the carbon intensity and energy structure of that growth.