Abstract
Background
Medical diagnosis in practice connects to research through continuous feedback loops: Studies of diagnosed cases shape our understanding of disease, which shapes future diagnostic practice. Without accounting for an imperfect and complex diagnostic process in which some cases are more likely to be diagnosed correctly (or diagnosed at all), the feedback loop can inadvertently exacerbate future diagnostic errors and biases.
Framework
A feedback loop failure occurs if misleading evidence about disease etiology encourages systematic errors that self-perpetuate, compromising future diagnoses and patient care. This article defines scenarios for feedback loop failure in medical diagnosis.
Design
Through simulated cases, we characterize how disease incidence, presentation, and risk factors can be misunderstood when observational data are summarized naive to biases arising from diagnostic error. A fourth simulation extends to a progressive disease.
Results
When severe cases of a disease are diagnosed more readily, less severe cases go undiagnosed, increasingly leading to underestimation of the prevalence and heterogeneity of the disease presentation. Observed differences in incidence and symptoms between demographic groups may be driven by differences in risk, presentation, the diagnostic process itself, or a combination of these. We suggested how perceptions about risk factors and representativeness may drive the likelihood of diagnosis. Differing diagnosis rates between patient groups can feed back to increasingly greater diagnostic errors and disparities in the timing of diagnosis and treatment.
Conclusions
A feedback loop between past data and future medical practice may seem obviously beneficial. However, under plausible scenarios, poorly implemented feedback loops can degrade care. Direct summaries from observational data based on diagnosed individuals may be misleading, especially concerning those symptoms and risk factors that influence the diagnostic process itself.
Highlights
Current evidence about a disease can (and should) influence the diagnostic process. A feedback loop failure may occur if biased “evidence” encourages diagnostic errors, leading to future errors in the evidence base.
When diagnostic accuracy varies for mild versus severe cases or between demographic groups, incorrect conclusions about disease prevalence and presentation will result without specifically accounting for such variability.
Use of demographic characteristics in the diagnostic process should be done with careful justification, in particular avoiding potential cognitive biases and overcorrection.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
