A Test of Situational Communication Theory: Public Response to the 1990 Browning Earthquake Prediction *

Iben Browning's December 3, 1990, earthquake prediction for the New Madrid fault region provided the setting for examining public response and communication about a disaster warning. Grunig's (1983) situational theory of publics was used to examine respondents’ orientations toward the earthquake problem, that is whether they recognized the problem and whether they felt they could do anything about the problem. Two public opinion surveys, the first conducted during the first week of November 1990, and the follow-up conducted during the last week of February 1991, were analyzed. High problem recognition publics were more likely to have reported involvement with the earthquake issue, to have talked with others about earthquakes, and to have done something to prepare for the earthquake. This study extends situational theory by including a measure of the perceived influence of communication on involvement. In the November 1990 survey, problem-facers and constrained reported that both television and newspaper news and interpersonal discussion influenced their perception of the importance of the earthquake problem, whereas in the February survey, only discussion with others impacted issue involvement. Mass media use and interpersonal discussion do influence how important people perceive a potential disaster to be particularly if those people recognize the disaster as a problem and believe that they can prepare for the disaster.