A recurring question in the study of disaster effects involves political instability. A relationship has been posited between disasters and various forms of political unrest, and case evidence exists to support the contention. Statistical testing, however, has been lacking. A pilot study, this paper integrates a worldwide-disaster database with a political-instability database and reports time-series cross-section (pooled time-series) findings for 12 countries struck by rapid-onset natural disasters between 1966 and 1980. The regression results, both strong and significant, indicate a positive relationship between disaster severity and political unrest. The unrest, however, can be dampened if not eliminated by governmental repression, the implications of which are most disturbing.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Albala-BertrandJ. M.1993. The Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters.Oxford: Clarendon Press.
2.
AndersonThomas P.1988. Politics in Central America.New York: Praeger.
3.
AnnisSheldon. 1991. “Giving Voice to the Poor.” Foreign Policy84 (Fall): 93–106.
4.
BatesFrederick L. (ed.). 1982. Recovery, Change and Development: A Longitudinal Study of the 1976 Guatemala Earthquake.Athens, Georgia: University of Georgia Department of Sociology.
5.
BeckNathaniel, and TuckerRichard. 1996. “Conflict in Space and Time: Time-Series—Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable.” Paper presented at the annual American Political Science Association meeting.
6.
BrintonCrane. 1938. Anatomy of Revolution.Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
7.
BrockettCharles D.1992. “Measuring Political Violence and Land Inequality in Central America.” American Political Science Review86(March): 169–176.
8.
Bulmer-ThomasVictor. 1991. “Nicaragua Since 1930.” Pp. 227–276 in Central America since Independence, edited by BethellLeslieCambridge: Cambridge University Press.
9.
CastanedaJorge G.1993. Utopia Unarmed, The Latin American Left After the Cold War.New York: Vintage Books.
10.
CockroftJames D.1990. “Mexico's Political Earthquake.” Monthly Review42(December): 39–50.
11.
CothranDan A.1994. Political Stability and Democracy in Mexico: The “Perfect Dictatorship”?Westport, Connecticut: Praeger.
12.
CunyFrederick C.1983. Disasters and Development.Oxford: Oxford University Press.
13.
DaviesJames C.1962. “Toward a Theory of Revolution.” American Sociological Review27(February): 5–19.
14.
DavisMorris, and SeitzSteven Thomas. 1982. “Disasters and Governments.” Journal of Conflict Resolution26(September): 547–568.
15.
DiamondLarry. 1991. “Economic Development and Democracy Reconsidered.” American Behavioral Scientist35(March-June): 450–499.
16.
DiamondLarry, LinzJuan J., and LipsetSeymour Martin. 1990. Politics in Developing Countries: Comparing Experiences with Democracy.Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner.
17.
DixonWilliam J., MullerEdward N., and SeligsonMitchell A.. 1993. “Inequality and Political Violence Revisited: Response.” American Political Science Review87 (December): 983–993.
18.
DoreElizabeth. 1986. “Nicaragua: Experience of the Mixed Economy,” Pp. 319–350 in Latin American Political Economy: Financial Crisis and Political Change, edited by HartlynJonathan, and MorleySamuel A.Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press.
19.
DrabekThomas E.1986. Human System Response to Disaster: An Inventory of Sociological Findings.New York: Springer-Verlag.
20.
DunkerleyJames. 1988. Power in the Isthmus: A Political History of Modern Central America.London: Verso.
21.
DunkerleyJames. 1991. “Guatemala Since 1930.” Pp. 227–276 in Central America since Independence, edited by BethellLeslieCambridge: Cambridge University Press.
22.
FeierabendIvo K., and FeierabendRosalind L.. 1966. “Aggressive Behavior within Polities, 1948–1962: A Cross-National Study.” Journal of Conflict Resolution10(September): 249–271.
23.
FeierabendIvo K., and FeierabendRosalind L.. 1972. “Systemic Conditions of Political Aggression: An Application of Frustration-Aggression Theory.” Pp. 136–183 in Anger, Violence, and Politics, edited by FeierabendIvo K., FeierabendRosalind L., and GurrTed RobertEnglewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
24.
FreudenheimEllen, “Politics in International Disasters: Fact, Not Fiction.” 1979. Pp. 225–244 in Disaster Assistance: Appraisal, Reform and New Approaches, edited by StephensLynn H., and GreenStephen J.. New York: New York University Press.
25.
GasiorowskiMark J.1995. “Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis.” American Political Science Review89(December): 882–897.
26.
GlantzMichael H.1976. The Politics of Natural Disaster.New York: Praeger.
27.
GranadosHéctor Rosada1992. “Parties, Transitions, and the Political System in Guatemala.” Pp. 89–109 in Political Parties and Democracy in Central America, edited by GoodmanLouis W., LeograndeWilliam M., and FormanJohanna Mendelson, Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press.
28.
GreenStephen. 1977. International Disaster Relief: Toward a Responsive System.New York: McGraw Hill.
29.
GreeneWilliam H.1997. Econometric Analysis, Third Edition.Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
30.
GurrTed Robert1968. “A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices.” American Political Science Review62 (December): 1104–1124.
31.
GurrTed Robert. 1970. Why Men Rebel.Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
32.
GurrTed Robert. 1974. “Persistence and Change in Political Systems” American Political Science Review68(December): 1482–1504.
33.
HellmanJudith Adler. 1994. “Mexican Popular Movements, Clientelism, and the Process of Democratization.” Latin American Perspectives21 (Spring): 124–142.
34.
HibbsDouglas A1973. Mass Political Violence: A Cross-National Causal Analysis.New York: Wiley.
35.
HuntingtonSamuel P.1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the late Twentieth Century.Norman, Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma Press.
KimC. I. Eugene, and ZiringLawrence. 1977. An Introduction to Asian Politics.Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
38.
KrauzeEnrique1997. Mexico, Biography of Power: A History of Modern Mexico, 1810–1996.New York: HarperCollins.
39.
MayerJean. 1974. “Coping with Famine.” Foreign Affairs53(October): 98–120.
40.
MidlarskyManus I.1988. “Rulers and Ruled: Patterned Inequality and the Onset of Mass Political Violence.” American Political Science Review82 (June): 491–509.
41.
MidlarskyManus I.1989. “Land Inequality and Political Violence (Rejoinder).” American Political Science Review83(June): 587–595.
42.
MullerEdward N.1985. “Income Inequality, Regime Repressiveness, and Political Violence.” American Sociological Review50(February): 47–61.
43.
MullerEdward N., and SeligsonMitchell A.. 1987. “Inequality and Insurgency.” American Political Science Review81(June): 425–451.
44.
MullerEdward N., SeligsonMitchell A., and FuHung-der1989. “Land Inequality and Political Violence (Critique).” American Political Science Review83(June): 577–586.
45.
PereraVictor. 1993. Unfinished Conquest: The Guatemalan Tragedy.Berkeley, California: University of California Press.
46.
PrzeworskiAdam. 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
47.
SAIS (School of Advanced International Studies) Study Group.1985. Report on Guatemala.Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
48.
SchioederRichard C.1985. “Troubled Mexico.” Editorial Research Reports (November 8): 843–860.
49.
SeitzSteven Thomas, and DavisMorris. 1984. “The Political Matrix of Natural Disasters: Africa and Latin America.” International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters2(August): 231–250.
50.
SmithPeter H.1991. “Mexico since 1946: Dynamics of an Authoritarian Regime,” Pp. 321–396 in Mexico since Independence, edited by BethellLeslieCambridge: Cambridge University Press.
51.
StataCorp. 1997. Stata Statistical Software: Release 5.0.College Station, Texas: Stata Corporation.
52.
TangemanMichael. 1995. Mexico at the Crossroads, Politics, the Church, and the Poor.Maryknoll, New York: Orbis Books.
53.
TaylorCharles Lewis, and JodiceDavid A.. 1983. World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators, (3rd ed.) Cambridge, Massachusetts: Yale University Press.
54.
WangT. Y.1993. “Inequality and Political Violence Revisited: Comment.” American Political Science Review87(December): 979–983.
55.
WisebergLaurie. 1976. “An International Perspective on the African Famines.” Pp. 101–127 in The Politics of Natural Disaster, edited by GlantzMichael H.New York: Praeger.
56.
WoodwardRalph LeeJr.1985. Central America, A Nation Divided.Oxford: Oxford University Press.
