From Insecurity to Uncertainty: Risk and the Paradox of Security Politics

The changing contours of conflicts, wars, and crises with and after the end of the Cold War have led to a semantic shift: Not the avoidance of threats, so the argument goes, but the management of risks characterizes contemporary security practices. By juxtaposing the well-known security “dilemma” with the new “security paradox,” this contribution argues that a redefinition of “uncertainty” and “probability” is constitutive for this semantic shift. We argue that new security concerns like terrorism have (re)introduced “unstructured” uncertainty as the rationale for new security practices. To conceptualize this re-opening, we propose a topology of risk, uncertainty, and probability theories that highlights the multiple and conflicting logics of security policies currently at play.