Flying Under the Radar: How Susceptible Are University Students to County Lines Victimization?

Abstract

We quantitatively investigated how susceptible university students are to engaging in activity that could lead to County Lines involvement by asking them to rate their willingness to participate in five hypothetical scenarios typical of County Lines engagement and one control scenario (bit-coin scam). About 62% of the 116 students were willing to engage compared to only 3% in the control scenario. Participant demographics, drug abuse, mental health, financial distress, and materialism were also measured and significantly predicted willingness to engage with the scenarios with weak to moderate effect. Findings suggest that university students are vulnerable to engaging in County Lines but the risk factors in the literature may not be good predictors of determining vulnerability.

Keywords

County Lines vulnerability students drugs

In the United Kingdom the illicit drugs market is worth an estimated £9.4 billion affecting approximately 3 million people each year (Black, 2020). Historically the majority of activity occurred in major cities (Pearson & Hobbs, 2001) but this market has become saturated (Hales & Hobbs, 2009; Ruggiero, 2009) leading dealers to expand their influence to smaller rural locations where there is less competition and less police presence (Windle & Briggs, 2015), which has led to a 50% increase in rural/coastal drug related offences (Dahlgreen, 2019). The National Crime Agency (National Crime Agency [NCA], 2016) in the UK describe this trend as “County Lines,” a distinct and rapidly emerging criminal business model that utilizes mobile phones to link the supply of illicit substances from urban to rural and/or coastal locations (HM Government, 2018) with the management being overseen by senior gang/group members in urban locations (Coomber & Moyle, 2017). To expand their customer base, lines also operate to advertise substances, with mass marketing texts sent to drug users in the local area offering deals and introductory offers, for example, “buy one, get one free” (Coliandris, 2015). There is currently no legal definition of County Lines and thus, there remains a lack of awareness amongst law enforcement staff and agencies of what constitutes County Lines activities, meaning many offences remain unrecorded (Ford, 2018). The primary motivation for County Lines activities is financial (Spicer, 2018), with individual deal lines each profiting over £800,000 per year (NCA, 2019b) and there is an estimated 2,000 lines (NCA, 2017). Due to the relative infancy of this drug supply model, obtaining accurate figures pertaining to the extent and reach of County Lines is challenging. This project is one of the first to explore the phenomenon of County Lines in South Wales and the vulnerability of university students to being involved.

Exploitation of Vulnerable Individuals and the Associated Risk Factors

A fundamental element of the County Lines model is the exploitation and recruitment of vulnerable individuals to facilitate the movement, storage, and supply of drugs and money (Windle et al., 2020). Whilst senior gang/group members control deal lines from the safety of the urban locale, more vulnerable individuals undertake risky front-line roles which include: the transportation of drugs and money from the urban to rural location (often via “plugging” which involves concealing drugs internally), street-level dealing, and the cutting and bagging of substances in “trap houses” (Glover Williams & Finlay, 2018). These houses typically belong to vulnerable adults in the rural marketplace and are overtaken by County Lines perpetrators as a temporary base for packaging and distributing drugs, a method known as “Cuckooing” (Coomber & Moyle, 2017). Victims are also exploited for the use of their bank accounts for money laundering purposes, informally referred to as “squaring” (Ford, 2018). This hierarchical structure allows senior gang/group members to maintain anonymity, distance themselves from criminality, and subsequently, law enforcement (Spicer, 2018). This has continued despite the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with County Lines offenders taking advantage of the current restrictions to further conceal their activities. Utilizing the national respect for key workers and their ability to move more freely during lockdowns, those in front-line roles have been instructed to pose as key workers, using fake NHS identification lanyards to avoid being stopped (Pidd, 2020).

Academic literature investigating County Lines exploitation and vulnerabilities is scant. Research has primarily been qualitative in nature, via the use of semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and case studies with victims and professionals in relevant fields (Ford, 2018). These methods of investigation are dependent on victims being forthcoming and victims can be reluctant to co-operate due to the fear of self-incrimination and retribution from perpetrators (NCA, 2019a). Those that become involved in County Lines are taken advantage of (Chakraborti & Garland, 2012) and the Home Office (2018) note several risk factors including; drug abuse, poor mental health/well-being, social isolation, and financial distress/instability. Most cases of County Lines exploitation involve grooming tactics and the imposition of rewards for involvement. Perpetrators establish contact with vulnerable individuals either in person or online and begin to establish trust and cultivate relationships (NCA, 2019a). Offenders then provide tangible (e.g., free money, designer clothes, and drugs) and/or intangible rewards (e.g., friendship, affection, and intimacy) rendering victims indebted to them. Akin to modern slavery, individuals are forced to engage in County Lines activities to repay their “debts,” which is accompanied by intimidation and threats of/actual violence (Robinson et al., 2018).

Other victims are lured by financial gain and material rewards (Lais, 2019). Some offenders in senior positions glamorize their lifestyles stating that County Lines offending is a way to make fast and easy money (Irwin-Rogers, 2019). This is amplified by social media whereby offenders utilize online platforms to post images of material possessions and money (Irwin-Rogers & Pinkney, 2017). More deceptive methods include the use of fake job adverts on recruitment websites for money laundering purposes, which promise “high sums for minimal work” (NCA, 2019b); and false accommodation listings whereby individuals pretend to be desperately looking for lodgings with a hidden agenda of cuckooing (M. McNally 2020, personal communication, 9 June). In society there is often an emphasis placed upon the accumulation of wealth and material possessions as a symbol of one’s success and status, promoting materialistic values, and a “get rich quick” culture (Richins & Dawson, 1992). Materialistic individuals may become involved in County Lines because it represents an enticing opportunity for quick wealth/material success for what they believe will be minimal effort (Lais, 2019).

The Harms Associated With County Lines

Irrespective of the method of recruitment, individuals in front-line roles and cuckooed residents are exposed to a “spectrum of harm” (Moyle, 2019). Those involved have described threats and experiences of physical, sexual, and emotional violence (HM Government, 2018). These tactics are employed by senior gang/group members to control or discipline victims, particularly if one attempts to leave or engage with law enforcement (Coliandris, 2015; Home Office, 2018). The risk of harm is also heightened by exposure to rival gangs/groups, who frequently use violence, weapons, and intimidation to force competing groups out of the area and achieve market dominance (Densley et al., 2020). As a result, it is suggested that County Lines has contributed toward a rise in knife crime and fatal stabbings across the country (O’Hagan & Long, 2019). Those working or cuckooed in “trap houses” have also reported extremely poor living conditions without food, running water, or heating (Bingham, 2019). The transportation of drugs via “plugging” can have serious health implications if packages rupture (NCA, 2017). Involvement in County Lines can result in enduring physical and mental health conditions, including depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, and in some cases, death (Hughes et al., 2015). There has been a recent change in sentencing guidelines which propose tougher sentences for County Lines offenders given the serious nature of this exploitative crime (Sentencing Council, 2021). Therefore, whilst County Lines primarily revolves around the distribution of drugs it is a multifaceted issue involving criminal and sexual exploitation, violence, and modern slavery (Home Office, 2018).

University Students and Vulnerability to County Lines Victimization

Vulnerable populations, such as looked-after children, drug users, homeless, and those with a prior record, are the typical targets of County Lines (Papadaki, 2020). However, in order to reduce the risk of detection, individuals with stable, affluent, and/or non-criminal backgrounds (referred to as “clean skins,” NCA, 2017) are becoming the main targets of County Lines abuse. Using a-typical offenders, such as children, has been a long-standing tactic of the Mexican drug cartels (Klein, 2015). Higher education students fall within this category and may be unsuspectingly vulnerable. Drug use is a common aspect of university culture with one in five UK students stating that they regularly use drugs (National Union of Students, 2018). Due to the academic, financial, and social pressures of attending university, national surveys have revealed that poor mental health/well-being, financial distress/instability, and feelings of social isolation are rife amongst students (Pereira et al., 2019).

Public media reports have suggested that County Lines offenders have begun enrolling on courses or masquerading as students to run lines from UK institutions (Camber, 2019). The advantages of posing as a student are that offenders are less likely to be stopped by the police, and it also allows for the recruitment of fellow students for front-line roles (France, 2020). In particular, it has been suggested that students in debt are being targeted to sell drugs to pay off their debts (Howes, 2019). Students attending universities across South Wales have reported that they are regularly approached on campus, at parties, or via social media by individuals who advertise drugs, often enticing them with giveaways and offers; a well-known grooming tactic used by County Lines offenders (Fyfe, 2020). This has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic with dealers offering bulk deals, free samples, and “lockdown party packs” via social media to curb boredom (Grierson, 2020).

Violence and Vulnerability Unit (VVU, 2021) are a team of County Lines experts commissioned by the Home Office to increase knowledge of how criminal gangs and groups operate. The VVU recently conducted a small-scale qualitative research project at a university in South Wales to investigate whether County Lines gangs/groups may be operating on campus (Cullen et al., 2019). Interviews and focus-groups with staff and students revealed no evidence of County Lines gangs/groups openly operating on campus. However, individuals talked about a number of issues that could potentially encourage or make it easier for students to be targeted. There were concerns around an open campus policy and members of the public being able to enter university premises with ease. There were also reports of increased drug use amongst students, mental-health/well-being issues, and financial difficulties, all of which are known risk factors associated with susceptibility (Home Office, 2018). There was also evidence of students in debt being vulnerable to inappropriate/fake employment offers, particularly international students. Based on this information the VVU recommended that academic research using a larger cohort is needed to further understand the level of risk to students at the participating university (Cullen et al., 2019), which may have implications for the wider student population in the UK.

Anecdotal evidence and information provided by the VVU implies that students attending UK institutions may be at risk of County Lines victimization. To the authors knowledge there is no other academic research which has investigated susceptibility to County Lines behaviors in university students. If students are at risk, an intelligence gap exists regarding the type of students who are vulnerable and the associated demographic characteristics. It is also unknown whether the risk factors linked to increased susceptibility amongst other populations are relevant to student vulnerability.

The aim of the present research was to investigate how vulnerable university students attending UK universities are to County Lines victimization. Second, to identify whether certain demographic characteristics were associated with riskier decision making. Third, to identify whether a relationship exists between risk factors identified in the current literature (drug abuse, poor mental health/well-being, social isolation, financial distress/instability, and materialism) and riskier decision making.

Method

Approach to Design

The design of this study was non-experimental and correlational. The dependent variable was the likelihood of students making decisions in line with County Lines victimization. To assess this, hypothetical scenario vignettes were considered the most suitable method. They have been used in a wide range of psychological research to examine decision making and determine how participants would respond when faced with certain social situations (Hughes, 1998). This method can generate insight into how participants may respond when faced with similar situations in reality (Jenkins & Noone, 2019). Vignettes are also appropriate where addressing research questions that would not be possible or ethical through observation (Hughes & Huby, 2004). To produce valid data, vignettes must be credible, simple, and informed by real life examples (McInroy & Beer, 2021; Silva et al., 2019). There are numerous ways that individuals become involved in County Lines and there currently exists no quantitative data detailing the most common scenarios. Therefore vignettes were constructed based on a thorough review of existing literature, anecdotal evidence, and information provided by County Lines experts at the VVU (M. McNally, 2020, personal communication, 9 June). To assess whether students were specifically at risk of County Lines victimization as opposed to risky scenarios/decision making in general, a control vignette was included. An online questionnaire (Qualtrics, Provo, UT, USA) was used to gather the data. The questionnaire comprised of three sections; demographics, vignettes, and risk factor questionnaires.

Participants

Participants included 118 university students aged 18 years or older. Participants were recruited via social media platforms (Facebook and Twitter) and the Cardiff Met student homepage (MetCentral) accessible to all students enrolled at Cardiff Met. The majority of participants were under 35 years (81%), female (61%), and identified as White British (76.7%). Of the cohort 54% were on undergraduate courses, 80% were UK nationals, 72% attended a Welsh university. A broad spectrum of living situations were reported; living with family members/relatives being the most common (32%), followed by shared accommodation (26%), student/university halls (22%), spouse (15%), single occupancy (4.3%), single parent (1.7%), and no-fixed abode (1.7%).

Measures

Decision making conducive to County Lines victimization

Five hypothetical vignettes were implemented that depict scenarios typical of County Lines exploitation/recruitment (see Supplemental Appendix 1). The vignettes encapsulated the typical grooming and deceptive tactics employed by offenders. Three focused on the imposition of tangible and intangible rewards (free money, free drugs, and friendship). Another depicted an online fake job advert with the hidden agenda of money laundering. The final vignette illustrated a cuckooing scenario. The control vignette depicted a common phishing e-mail scam whereby strangers demand payment via bitcoin and threaten to hack your computer if you refuse. For each vignette, participants were required to indicate how likely they would be to engage using a continuous rating scale with an interactive slider function ranging from 0 (Extremely Unlikely) to 100 (Extremely Likely), for example, “What is the likelihood of you accepting the money?”

Measures for risk factors of interest

Drug abuse

Drug abuse amongst students was measured using the Drug Abuse Screening Test (DAST-10; Skinner, 1982) which includes 10 items with a “Yes/No” format about illicit drug use in the past 12 months, excluding alcoholic beverages. Items include, “Do you abuse more than one drug at a time?” Items with a response of “Yes” are given a score of 1 (with the exception of item 3) and those with a response of “No” are given a score of 0. Scores for each item are totaled to provide a total raw score ranging from 0 to 10, with 0 to 2 representing no/low levels of drug abuse, 3 to 5 moderate levels, 6 to 8 substantial levels, and 9 to 10 representing severe drug abuse. The DAST-10 has demonstrated reliability (internal consistency of α > .85) and test-retest reliability of r > .70 (Skinner, 1982). It has also demonstrated construct validity with DAST-10 scores highly correlated with scores on other psychometrically sound measures of substance abuse (Yudko et al., 2007).

The DAST-10 has also been able to identify problematic drug use amongst university students in previous research (McCabe et al., 2006). With the current sample, the alpha coefficient was calculated as .87.

Mental health/well-being

The 5-item World Health Organization Well-Being Index (WHO-5) was used to measure students’ current mental health/well-being with reference to the previous 2 weeks (WHO, 1998). The WHO-5 was derived from the larger 28 and 10-item versions and consists of five statements rated on a 6-point Likert scale ranging from 0 (At no time) to 5 (All of the time). Statements include, “I have felt cheerful and in good spirits.” Scores are summed to provide a total raw score ranging from 0 to 25, with 0 representing worst possible and 25 representing best possible quality of life. This is then multiplied by 4 to give a final score ranging from 0 to 100, with higher scores representing better mental health/well-being. A score of below 28 is indicative of depression. The WHO-5 has demonstrated acceptable reliability (internal consistency of α = .86 and test-retest reliability of r = .77) and construct validity, as WHO-5 scores are correlated with other psychometrically sound measures of depression, anxiety, and psychological distress (Topp et al., 2015). It has also been used with student populations to successfully identify those with poor mental health (Downs et al., 2017).

Social isolation

Social isolation amongst students was assessed using the UCLA 3-Item Loneliness Scale (TILS; Hughes et al., 2004) which measures three dimensions of loneliness: relational connectedness, social connectedness, and self-perceived isolation. The TILS was derived from the original UCLA 20-item loneliness scale and contains three statements rated on a 3-point Likert scale ranging from 1 (Hardly ever) to 3 (Often). Items include, “How often do you feel left out?” Scores are summed to provide a total raw score ranging from 3 to 9, with scores of 3 to 5 representing those who are least lonely and 6 to 9 representing those who are most lonely. The TILS has been implemented on a student population and has demonstrated acceptable reliability (internal consistency of α = .81) and is highly correlated with the 20-item version (Hughes et al., 2004). TILS total scores are correlated with other psychometrically sound measures of loneliness and students with higher scores have reported reduced life satisfaction and activity days (indications of loneliness), thus demonstrating evidence of construct validity (Matthews-Ewald & Zullig, 2013).

Financial distress/instability

The Student Financial Well-being Scale (SFWBS; Norvilitis et al., 2003) was used to measure students’ feelings of financial distress/instability. The SFWBS consists of eight statements rated on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 5 (Strongly Agree) to 1 (Strongly Disagree), with the exception of items 4, 7, and 8 which are reverse-scored. This provides a total raw score ranging from 8 to 40, with 8 representing high/severe financial distress and 40 representing little/no financial distress. The SFWBS was specifically developed for use with student populations, demonstrated by the inclusion of items which only relate to students, for example, items referencing student loans. The scale has demonstrated adequate reliability (internal consistency of α = .74) and construct validity, demonstrated via students with higher scores stating they have a higher debt to income ratio than those with little/no financial distress (Norvilitis et al., 2003).

Materialism

Materialism was measured using the 9-item Material Values Scale (MVS; Richins, 2004) which measures three dimensions of materialism: success, centrality, and happiness. The 9-item MVS was derived from the original 18-item MVS and consists of nine statements rated on a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 1 (Strongly Disagree) to 5 (Strongly Agree), with the exception of items 7 and 9 which are reverse-scored. Items include, “I admire people who own expensive homes, cars, and clothes.” This provides a total raw score ranging from 9 to 45, with 9 representing those who are least materialistic and 45 representing those who are most materialistic. The MVS has been conducted with a student population, has demonstrated acceptable reliability (internal consistency of α = .84) and is highly correlated with the full 18-item version. MVS scores were also correlated with other psychometrically sound measures of materialism, thus demonstrating evidence of construct validity (Richins, 2004).

Ethical Considerations and Procedure

Ethical approval was granted by Cardiff Metropolitan University’s Department of Sport and Health Sciences (PGR-3171). All participants were given an information sheet and made aware that some aims of the project were initially withheld. All responses were anonymous, confidential, and no personally identifying information was collected. Participants were informed after the vignettes about the full purpose of the study and that they should contact the police if they are in immediate danger or believe they/someone they know is a victim of County Lines. The remainder of measures were then completed followed by a debrief form.

Results

Endorsement of Vignettes

To determine the likelihood of students making decisions in line with County Lines victimization, the vignette continuous variable was transformed was into a dichotomous data. By using a continuous scale for data collection a range of responses could be collected that would not have been possible if the question had been a forced Yes/No style question. For each vignette, scores under 50 were categorized as “might not engage” and scores 50 and above were categorized as “probably would engage.” Dividing the data along this line was arbitrary because no prior research had been done on these vignettes to determine how much perceived prior endorsement translates into real-world behavior. Two participants withdrew from the study by exiting their browser before completing any of the measures and therefore were not included in the analysis. The percentage that endorsed the vignettes were as follows; coffee meet 63%, free money 59%, cuckooing 49%, fake job 20%, free drugs 15%, and bitcoin (control) 3%.

County Lines Endorsement Across Demographic Groups

Cross-tabulations were performed with the recoded data to examine whether certain demographic characteristics were associated with increased likelihood of engaging across County Lines vignettes. Table 1 present the percentage of participants that reported more than 50% endorsement of a vignette. For three out of five of the vignettes older participants showed lower levels of endorsement. Students who identified as Black/Black British and Asian/Asian British were more likely to engage than students identifying as White in four out of the five vignettes. UK students presented with lower endorsement rates compared to European Union (EU) and international students across all vignettes. Engagement rates were higher in the “Fake job advert/money laundering” vignette amongst EU students (50%) and international students (47.1%) when compared with UK students (12.9%). Students who identified their living situation as sofa surfing/no fixed abode exhibited 100% endorsement rates across all five vignettes.

Table 1.

Percentage of Participants that Engage in the Difference Vignettes.

		N	Free money (%)	Cuckooing (%)	Free drugs (%)	Fake job advert (%)	Coffee meet (%)
Age
	18–24 years	59	57.6	62.7	18.6	22.0	59.3
	25–34 years	37	64.9	59.5	18.9	24.3	67.6
	35–44 years	9	66.7	33.3	0	11.1	66.7
	Over 45 years	11	36.4	36.4	0	0	63.6
Gender
	Male	43	72.1	62.7	18.6	22.0	59.3
	Female	71	49.3	59.5	18.9	24.3	67.6
	Gender variant/non-conforming	1	100.0	33.3	0	11.1	66.7
	Prefer not to answer	1	100.0	100.0	0	0	0
Ethnicity
	White	89	55.1	50.6	16.9	12.4	60.7
	Mixed	2	50	0	0	50	50
	Asian or Asian British	15	60	86.7	13.3	46.7	73.3
	Black or Black British	7	85.7	71.4	14.3	42.9	85.7
	Prefer not to answer	2	100	100	0	0	0
	Mediterranean	1	100	100	0	100	100
Level of study
	Foundation	13	46.2	46.2	23.1	30.8	61.5
	Undergraduate	63	57.1	65.1	17.5	17.5	63.5
	Postgraduate taught	25	64	60	8	20	64
	Postgraduate tesearch	15	66.7	26.7	13.3	20	60
Type of student
	UK	93	55.9	50.5	14	12.9	61.3
	EU	6	83.3	66.7	33.3	50	83.3
	International	17	64.7	88.2	17.6	47.1	64.7
Location
	England	32	65.6	65.6	31.3	15.6	65.6
	Wales	84	56	53.6	9.5	21.4	61.9
Living situation
	Student/university halls	25	60	80	20	20	60
	Single occupancy	5	60	20	20	0	60
	Shared accommodation	30	63.3	56.7	23.3	33.3	60
	With family members/relatives	35	57.1	51.4	8.6	14.3	65.7
	With spouse/partner	17	47.1	41.2	0	0	64.7
	Sofa surfing/ no fixed abode	2	100	100	100	100	100
	Single parent	2	50	50	0	50	50

Risk factors

On average students exhibited low levels of drug abuse (DAST-10; M = 1, SD = 1.96) and demonstrated moderate levels of mental health/well-being (WHO-5; M = 45.9, SD = 18.79), social isolation (UCLA TIL; M = 5.69, SD = 1.81), financial distress/instability (SFWBS; M = 26.69, SD = 6.23), and materialism (MVS; M = 26.73, SD = 6.06). There were statistically significant positive correlations between scores on the DAST-10 (drug abuse) and free money (r = .27, p < .01), cuckooing (r = .23, p < .05), free drugs (r = .62, p < = .01), and fake advert (r = .41, p < .01) vignettes. Mental health well-being significantly correlated with the free money vignette (r = .21, p < .05), financial distress significantly correlated with cuckooing (r = −.18, p < .05), free drugs (r = −.19, p < .05), and fake money (r = −.36, p < .05) vignettes. Materialism significantly correlated with the free money (r = .31, p < .01) and fake advert (r = .22, p < .05) vignettes. All significant correlations between scores on the risk factor scales/tools and riskier decision making across County Lines vignettes were weak to moderate, with only 3% to 45% of the variance being explained. In this data set the assumption of homoscedasticity was significantly violated and would have greatly increased the risk of a Type 1 error (Osborne & Waters, 2002) therefore further regression analysis was not possible.

Discussion

The findings of this study indicated that university students are vulnerable to County Lines victimization. All of the County Lines vignettes had some level of endorsement. In three out of five vignettes, over 50% of students reported that they would be likely to engage. In comparison, 97% of students reported that they would not be likely to engage in the control bitcoin scam vignette. Statistically significant correlations were observed between risk factors and riskier decision making in some of the vignettes but these correlations were weak to moderate and statistically accounted for only a small proportion of the variance.

The contrast between endorsement of the County Lines vignettes compared to the control vignette could be due to general awareness amongst students of bitcoin/phishing scams. This is consistent with previous research which has demonstrated that awareness of scams and the general tactics used by scammers reduces the likelihood of victimization. DeLiema et al. (2019) investigated the factors which influence the likelihood of becoming a victim of fraud by surveying individuals who had self-reported being a target/victim of a financial scam. Results showed that 49% of participants who were targeted but did not engage had prior awareness of the scam and the associated tactics utilized by scammers. This is further supported by Wang et al. (2012) who found that previous knowledge of e-mail based scams both reduced the likelihood of responding to phishing emails and improved individuals’ ability to detect deceptive indicators, for example, phishing emails coming from unrecognized addresses. County Lines is relatively new and therefore it is likely that there is a lack of awareness and general public knowledge surrounding the topic. A recent survey conducted in London exploring public awareness of County Lines and modern slavery revealed that 25% of respondents had no knowledge of County Lines (YouGov, 2019). Many identified victims reveal that they were not aware they were being groomed and initially believed their exploiters were “helping them out” or were their “friends” (Papadaki, 2020; Spicer, 2018).

Some noteworthy findings emerged when comparing engagement across demographic groups. Increasing age appeared to be protective across the majority of vignettes, with older students demonstrating lower engagement rates. The exception was the “Coffee meet” scenario. This is consistent with literature which suggests that younger adults are more impulsive and less risk-averse in comparison to older adults in a variety of decision making contexts (Dohmen et al., 2017; Rolison et al., 2014). The contrasting high engagement rate in the “Coffee meet” scenario for older participants could be attributed to a lack of socialization opportunities and increased difficulties making friends at university (Van Rhijn et al., 2015). Therefore older age may not be protective in certain situations of County Lines exploitation because different age groups are vulnerable to different tactics.

Endorsement rates were higher amongst international and EU students, particularly in the case of the “Fake job advert/money laundering” vignette. This echoes existing literature which suggests that increased vulnerability to money laundering scams amongst non-native students is a well-known issue (NCA, 2019b). A non-familiar environment, a lack of guardianship, and naivety regarding the legitimacy of job adverts can contribute toward increased susceptibility to fake employment offers (Esoimeme, 2020; Forbes-Mewett et al., 2015). The increased costs and fees associated with attending UK universities as an international/overseas student (e.g., higher tuitions fees) can heighten vulnerability as these students are under increased pressure to obtain funds (Randhawa, 2016). This is consistent with Cullen et al. (2019) which found evidence for international students in debt being vulnerable to inappropriate/fake employment offers (Cullen et al., 2019). Identified money mules are at risk of having their bank accounts frozen/closed, being unable to obtain new accounts, and can face up to 14 years in prison (NCA, 2019a). A willingness to engage in this vignette by international/overseas students suggest that they could be at increased risk of money laundering scams devised by County Lines criminals.

With regard to living situation, there were only two students who were identified as having no fixed abode/sofa-surfing. Students living in these conditions could be considered extremely vulnerable as they reported a willingness to engage with all of the County Lines vignettes. Homelessness is often accompanied by additional difficulties such as accessing employment, lack of family support, and substance misuse problems (Home Office, 2018) that may further exacerbate their vulnerability. County Lines offenders take advantage of unstable living situations and the associated challenges by offering homeless individuals rewards/gifts that they would otherwise struggle to obtain such as free money, drugs, or affection (Moyle, 2019). Although only two students reported having no fixed abode/sofa-surfing in this study, student homelessness is a substantial issue in the UK (Casey, 2018; Mulrenan et al., 2017). The current study highlights that students with no fixed abode/sofa-surfing may be acutely vulnerable to County Lines and given the rise in student homelessness, this may be a pervasive issue across the UK.

When comparing engagement across different ethnic groups, the results appeared to show that individuals who identify as Black/Black British and Asian/Asian British demonstrated higher endorsement rates across all County Lines vignettes, with the exception of “Free drugs.” Existing County Lines literature suggests that individuals of any ethnicity may be victimized; and to the author’s knowledge there is no quantitative data currently available that provides a frequency count of County Lines victimization according to ethnicity (Ford, 2018; Home Office, 2018). However, research suggests that university students belonging to ethnic minorities are more likely come from deprived and low socioeconomic backgrounds, struggle to access the same employment opportunities as their culturally dominant counterparts, and report finding it harder to make new friends at university (Busby, 2019; Stevenson et al., 2019). This may explain why these students demonstrated higher engagement rates in the vignettes which offered money, an employment opportunity, and friendship.

Results indicated that on average students reported low to moderate levels of the identified risk factors (drug abuse, poor mental health/well-being, social isolation, financial distress/instability, and materialism) associated with increased susceptibility to victimization. Although a number of significant correlations were identified between risk factor scores and increased likelihood of engaging in the vignettes, the majority of these were weak and statistically accounted for only a small proportion of the variance. The strongest correlation observed was between scores on the DAST-10 and riskier decision making in the “Free drugs” vignette. Students with higher levels of drug abuse demonstrated an increased willingness to accept free drugs. This is in line with literature which highlights that drug abuse/addiction is the most significant risk factor amongst adults associated with County Lines victimization (NCA, 2018). For those with substance issues, the offer of free and readily available drugs is tempting, particularly if they are struggling to fund their habit (Spicer, 2018). Whilst causal links cannot be established, this finding highlights that students who present with higher levels of drug abuse may be more susceptible to offers of free substances and in turn, may be at an increased risk of exploitation.

There was a positive correlation between WHO-5 scores (better mental health/well-being) and riskier decision making in the “Free money” vignette. This contradicts literature which suggests that poor mental health is associated with victimization (Home Office, 2018). However, based on guidelines for interpreting correlation coefficients (Ratner, 2009), this correlation and the other identified relationships statistically accounted for a very small amount of the variance. Overall these findings suggests that the hypothesized risk factors might not be as important in influencing decision making as initially hypothesized in the literature and that there may be unobserved factors which may better account for decisions to engage County Lines. Alternatively, it could be the combination of the hypothesized risk factors that lead to engagement.

Strengths and Limitations

The main advantage of the current research is the use of a hypothetical vignette methodology to reflect real-world vulnerability to County Lines. The findings contribute to an under researched topic area and to the authors’ knowledge, this is the first academic study to quantitatively investigate the vulnerability of university students to County Lines victimization. A caveat of using vignettes is that in reality, individuals are constantly responding to the people and the environment around them, which can influence decision making (Hughes & Huby, 2004). As a result, the data can only provide an indication rather than a guarantee of how individuals may behave if faced with these scenarios in reality. It is also important to note that this study used self-report measures to investigate the variables of interest which can increase the risk of socially desirable responding (van de Mortel, 2008). A further limitation was that the study did not reach the full range of demographic characteristics present amongst the UK student population. The creation of the vignettes was based on a reading of the literature and personal collaboration with the VVU. Future research should aim to develop scenarios based on police evidence examples and real case studies rather than anecdotal experience.

Implications for Prevention and Treatment of Offenders

The findings support the need for UK educational institutions to increase their awareness of County Lines, the associated harms and the tactics used by offenders. Educational posters and leaflets designed in collaboration with County Lines experts and/or other organizations such as the National Crime Agency, could be distributed around campuses, halls of residence, and local student accommodation. This method has proven useful for raising awareness amongst students in other domains such as risky drinking (LaBrie et al., 2007). Universities should also utilize online portals, blog websites, and student homepages (see “MetCentral” for an example) to disseminate information to students about County Lines. These procedures would potentially help to raise awareness amongst all types of students and thus, reduce the risk of future harm. Student services should also aim to make international students aware of legitimate means of finding employment and warn against the risks of fake job adverts. Universities should ensure that sufficient provisions and support packages are in place for students with unstable living conditions and the stigma surrounding it should be reduced (Mulrenan et al., 2017). It may be advantageous for academic personnel to become aware about County Lines and the signs of exploitation to increase the chances of identifying victims. The Association of University Chief Security Officers are encouraged to prioritize discussions about County Lines activity with individual universities and Regional Organized Crime Units. Institutions with an open campus policy may particularly need to revise security arrangements at high-risk times (e.g., induction weeks) as students start returning to campus post COVID-19 lockdown.

It is important that appropriate support mechanisms are in place to help those already involved in County Lines to speak up about their circumstances without fear of reprisal. Criminalizing those who are involved due to their vulnerable and inability to refuse participation may do more to hinder their rehabilitation and further obscure law enforcement’s ability to bring to justice the people running the criminal networks. Website such as Unseen (https://www.unseenuk.org/county-lines-campaign/) can be useful in increasing awareness of the issue and helping people start to seek help through accessing the Modern Slavery and Exploitation Helpline 08000121700.

Future Research and Conclusions

Future research should focus on expanding this study to a national scale. Repeating this study with a larger cohort of university students from a variety of institutions and locations would help determine whether the trends and conclusions drawn from the current sample are applicable to the wider student population. This cohort should be large enough to ensure that a more representative sample is gathered, encapsulating the full range of demographic characteristics. The questionnaire could also benefit from the addition of a social desirability scale such as the short Marlowe-Crowne scale (Reynolds, 1982) to detect and control for social desirability bias. If correlations between established risk factors and riskier decision making remained weak, qualitative methods (e.g., focus-groups and structured interviews) could be conducted alongside the questionnaire to determine whether there are unobserved risk factors or variables which are better associated with students’ decision making. In addition, future studies should aim to measure actual County Lines engagement which would provide quantitative data regarding how many students have been victimized. This would also allow researchers to investigate whether the risk factors of interest are associated with real world victimization.

This study has provided evidence that higher education students are vulnerable to County Lines victimization by a number of different means. Demographic, age, ethnicity, place of residence appear to play a role in vulnerability. The study also suggests that the risk factors for County Lines may not be as important in influencing engagement as initially hypothesized in the literature, with the exception of higher levels of drug abuse and an increased willingness to accept free drugs. The conclusions drawn from this study points to the notion that awareness of County Lines and the tactics employed by offenders to recruit/exploit victims is lacking amongst students. It is suggested that universities employ methods to increase awareness to prevent students from potential harms. This research adds to a scant literature base and provides the basis for a national-scale study with a larger cohort which would further add to our understanding of County Lines and student victimization.

Supplemental Material

sj-docx-1-ijo-10.1177_0306624X221102844 – Supplemental material for Flying Under the Radar: How Susceptible Are University Students to County Lines Victimization?

Supplemental material, sj-docx-1-ijo-10.1177_0306624X221102844 for Flying Under the Radar: How Susceptible Are University Students to County Lines Victimization? by Ashley Marie Burt, Libby Payne and Daniel Robert Stubbings in International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology

Footnotes

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

ORCID iDs

Libby Payne

Daniel Robert Stubbings

Supplemental Material

Supplemental material for this article is available online.

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