Revisiting Saarinen’s “Perception of the drought hazard on the Great Plains”

I Introduction

Perception and cognition studies were first published in psychology while geography embraced the field of research a bit later. Sensory input or sensory stimulation is the psychology view of perception (Bruner, 1957; Gold, 1980; Ittleson, 1960; Rock, 1975) and is often referred to as a subset of cognition (Downs and Stea, 1973; Golledge and Stimson, 1997). Geographers use “perception” as a term for how things or events are perceived or seen by people (Golledge and Stimson 1997), meaning that geographers studying perception examine how one understands the environment and how behavior is conditioned related to those surroundings (DeChano, 2000). Although there is no universally accepted definition of environmental perception, most researchers agree that the focus is on people’s feelings toward and/or awareness of the environment (Bell, 2001; Zube, 1999) which may influence their behavior toward the environment. It inherently involves people interacting with the environment in some way (Golledge and Stimson 1997).

In the 1940s, there was rise in geographic research investigating people’s perceptions on various aspects of the environment beginning with Gilbert White’s (1945) dissertation entitled “Human adjustment to floods.” He collaborated with other geographers, most notably Robert Kates and Ian Burton, to expand the body of literature on perception and flooding. While on the faculty at the University of Chicago, a young graduate student, Thomas Saarinen, studied under White and became fascinated with the idea of people’s perceptions of natural hazards and what their perceptions might tell researchers. Saarinen (1966) developed his dissertation on farmers’ perceptions of drought in the Midwest, which was highly influenced by White’s flooding perception research. Saarinen’s publication of his dissertation, “Perception of the drought hazard on the Great Plains” has become one of the most influential works on the perception of drought. It has also spurred others to expand environmental perception research to other hazards such as earthquakes (Turner et al., 1979), risk assessment (Slovic et al., 1979), and all hazards in one place (Trendell, 1979, Wuorinen, 1979).

II Substance of the 1966 publication

Saarinen’s book on the perception of the drought hazard on the Great Plains is as much applicable now as when it was first published in 1966. The Great Plains has endured a history of semi-arid conditions with several periods of drought. Saarinen’s work takes a closer look at what was occurring at the time and how it was being perceived by farmers.

In his first chapter, Saarinen focused on how people perceived and reacted to the Great Plains drought hazard. He hypothesized that Great Plains resource managers’ (wheat farmers in this case) perception of drought played a significant role in deciding which management practices to adopt and that perception varied according to several variables including aridity of the area, the amount and frequency of drought experienced, and differences in personality among managers. He discussed why it is difficult to define drought and briefly touched on the “newly” developed Palmer Drought Severity Index. He mentioned the techniques that had already evolved to combat drought such as dry farming techniques and improved machinery and went on to suggest that institutional adjustments and management strategies needed to follow suit. Saarinen also posited that perception and adaptation were important pieces when it comes to drought adjustment and adaptation. These last two pieces of the puzzle were the focus on the rest of this book and are subsequently discussed here.

In the second chapter, Saarinen suggested that perception was the key concept in adapting to both the physical and social environments. He narrowed the literature focus to perceptions in the broadest geographical sense – the human/environment interaction, and filtered down to a final discussion of perceptions and their relation to natural hazards. The human milieu that can be found inside and outside of geography included environmental determinism, mild environmentalism, environmental possibilism, probabalism, and finally cognitive behavior, which was where the most current work of the time in geography was focused. These same ideas could be found in many other behavioral science disciplines such as psychology, sociology, and anthropology. Within geography, perception studies were mainly in cultural geography but a more recent trend was to investigate how perceptions play into resource management decisions as well as examining other aspects of the environment such as scenic beauty and natural hazards.

In his third chapter, Saarinen laid out the methodology he used for his study. He chose six sites in the Great Plains that had winter wheat as the main crop. Farmers were interviewed using a questionnaire and a modified version of the Thematic Apperception Test (TAT). The questionnaire contained a section of general background questions, another section inquiring about farmers’ perceptions of the drought hazard and range of choice perceived to combat the drought hazards, a third section on farming practices and use of certain strategies, and a final section of attitudes towards water witching, weather modification, and luck in farming. The modified TAT employed the full 10 photos recommended but Saarinen only fully analyzed two of these photos using the Schaw-Henry technique for analysis. The two photos that were chosen were elected because they were the most pertinent and were the most likely to provide rewarding insight. Themes were then classified and groups for comparison by frequency and kinds of actions and resolutions found. Saarinen also determined the Palmer Drought Severing Index for each location for each month beginning in 1924 and ending on the date of the farmer interview. These numbers were then compared with responses to determine the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions of various drought aspects. Saarinen ended this chapter with a discussion of limitations of the study design.

Chapter 4 reported on Saarinen’s results of farmers’ perception of the drought hazard. His main findings included the following:

Dryness was a disadvantage of the Great Plains in terms of farming.

All in all these farmers were aware of the drought hazards and able to assess accurately current moisture conditions. The most accurate perceptions were found with those in the least humid region, those with the most drought experience, and those whose operations were the most vulnerable to weather variations.

Saarinen’s results of farmers’ perception on the range of choice they have to combat the drought hazard were laid out in Chapter 5. He found that most farmers did not perceive a wide range of choice in ways of using the land and that the number of ways decreased with aridity. He did note that irrigation was mentioned frequently (65% of responses) and that ranges of alternative crops that might be grown were also suggested. Other ways of reducing drought loss included stubble mulch, summer fallow, and conserve all moisture. When local officials were asked what they suggest for reducing this risk a few more choices were provided. However, both groups reported that the range of alternatives was less as aridity increased.

Saarinen next turned his attention to farmers’ perception, and their adaptation and adoption to farming practices. He found that farmers in more arid areas keep grain reserves and 94 percent practice summer fallow. Highly recommended by experts, stubble mulch was also regarded as one of the most effective strategies for reducing drought loss. The degree of adoption of these practices was most notably dependent upon aridity or local topography. The more perceptive farmers were to the drought risk the more likely they were to adopt stubble mulch as a practice. Interestingly, the most innovative farmers were not always the most perceptive of the drought hazard except in instances where innovations were directly influential to the drought problem. Nearly two-thirds of farmers also believe that luck was an important factor for farming but water witching and weather modifications were not very effective. Saarinen’s investigation into current adaptations revealed no real correlation between aridity and gross income but that reserves of crops were a more frequent occurrence in the most arid areas. These farmers also believed that they could go fewer years with reserves without a serious problem compared with those farmers in more humid areas.

Farmers’ personality traits as determined by the TAT were the focus of Chapter 7. The two main personality traits were the uncertainty of the area and concerns regarding a single climate element such as wind. Other themes included humor, pride, gambling spirit, curiosity, religion, need for credit, and scapegoating. From the stories that were told by farmers determination and humor were the main themes. Another set of themes revolved around humans and nature including humans over nature, humans in harmony with nature, and humans under nature. The former theme was noticed in two-thirds of the stories, while one-third fell into the former two categories. Saarinen also reported that Great Plains farmers are most likely to either do nothing or be passive when it came to the issue of achievement conflict, meaning they were more willing to stick it out or become frustrated but not do anything about the issue. His examination of personality characteristics suggested that some personality traits are associated with different degrees of the perception of drought among farmers as well as with the different rates of adoption of different or alternative farming practices.

Saarinen followed these discussions with some policy implications for government entities. He posited that farmers would be resistant to resettling, perhaps because of the pride associated with “sticking it out.” He also cautioned that new methods of reducing drought-related losses would not be readily accepted by all farmers. Many farmers would wait until these new techniques were proven to actually work before adopting them.

The last chapter of Saarinen’s work reiterated the major findings of his research. Perception of the drought hazards varied based on the degree of aridity of the area and the amount of drought experiences by the person, and personality differences. He also noted that the type of operation played into perception and that age and experience were closely related to drought perceptions. His results mirrored other studies in the literature including the fact that more experience with the hazard, and areas more frequently affected by the hazard produced a heightened perception of the hazard in resource managers. Saarinen also presented a series of unanswered questions that stemmed from his work. Some of these questions were more specific and possibly easier to answer while others were broader and much more difficult to answer. As with the preceding chapter, Saarinen ended with a look at policy implications. He suggested pointing out the frequency of the drought hazard and its affect since all respondents in his study recognize that there was drought hazard. He also advocated for new practices to be introduced during dry periods and more concentrated efforts to introduce these practices to the more innovative resource managers. These managers were more willing to take a chance on the new practice or technique and then introduce it to other managers they met.

III The lasting influence

Saarinen’s 1966 work on drought perceptions was highly influenced by White’s flood studies and was the first of its kind in terms of the type of hazard examined. Flooding is a quick onset, short duration event, whereas drought is a long-lasting event that is not typically recognized until a few years of dry conditions have lapsed. This work, along with the other perception studies, especially those involving natural hazards, provides the foundation for many of the perception studies that are available in the literature today. This paper is the first work that Saarinen offered that examined perceptions. Later in his career his used this foundation to parlay into his work on how children perceive the world and how they draw world maps, research for which Saarinen might be better known.

In the years since Saarinen published this work, more research has been conducted in the area of perceptions and drought as well as other natural disaster including tornadoes, hurricanes, snow avalanches, and the like. Many of the results indicated by Saarinen related to the drought hazard have been substantiated by many of these, more recent projects. It would be interesting to recreate his study and see if farmers in the Great Plains today have the same perceptions as those of 1966 or even if they are heightened. Great Plains resource managers continue to deal with the lack of water occurring naturally and an increasing expense of irrigation, which will not change in this period of global climate change. Have new practices been devised that will help with this problem? Has the geographical range of these crops shifted due to global climate change? Have farmers chosen to give up and pursue off-farm means of income? How can resource managers combat this problem even as innovations are being implemented and geographical ranges changing? These are all questions that come to mind after reading Saarinen’s study of the drought hazard more than 50 years later.