Abstract
This study provides a comprehensive assessment of Brazil’s wind energy potential. The analysis encompasses electricity generation capacity and wind resource availability across multiple heights, covering both onshore and offshore contexts. In addition, the study examines the country’s electricity consumption profile and the broader generation–demand landscape, emphasizing the strategic role of wind power within the Brazilian energy matrix. A comparative perspective is also incorporated, positioning Brazil relative to other Latin American countries and to the BRICS group. The findings highlight the rapid and sustained expansion of Brazil’s wind sector, which is consolidating itself as one of the country’s most promising renewable energy sources. This evolution underscores wind energy’s growing contribution to diversifying the electricity mix, supporting a higher share of renewable generation. The study further reinforces the importance of policy frameworks that prioritize investment in wind energy as a means to strengthen energy security, improve competitiveness, and promote long-term sustainability.
Introduction
The global community is currently witnessing a surge in energy demand due to ongoing advancements in technology and economic progress. This necessitates an expansion of energy generation and an increased exploration of available energy sources. Since the dawn of the initial industrial revolution and the widespread adoption of household electricity and transportation innovations, a robust energy matrix has become an integral component of governmental planning worldwide. Initially, coal-fired power plants were established, and with the widespread adoption of internal combustion engines and automobiles, fossil fuels became extensively utilized. However, growing concerns have emerged regarding the environmental impact of human activities, bringing attention to issues such as climate change and global warming. The adverse effects of carbon dioxide depletion in the atmosphere, stemming from the use of fossil fuels, have been extensively documented in numerous studies and continue to be openly discussed, alongside various other emerging environmental concerns. Hence, the imperative for cleaner, renewable energy sources to meet the growing energy demand without compromising the environment has become a compelling necessity. The development and application of these systems have consequently emerged as a matter of paramount importance (Ackermann and Soder, 2002).
In Brazil, the development of onshore wind energy has experienced significant growth over the past two decades, consolidating itself as one of the main drivers of the country’s renewable energy transition. The first large-scale wind farms were established in the early 2000s, and since then, installed capacity has expanded considerably, supported by favorable wind conditions, particularly along the northeastern and southern coasts. Public policies and successive renewable energy auctions have been decisive in fostering the sector’s expansion (Pereira et al., 2012).
Empirical evidence reinforces this trend. For instance, Simas and Pacca (2014) demonstrated that wind power has not only contributed to diversifying Brazil’s electricity supply but has also reduced regional dependence on hydropower, thereby improving system resilience during drought periods. Collectively, these studies provide a solid academic foundation that underscores the importance of further examining Brazil’s wind energy potential.
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of Brazil’s wind energy potential using nationwide and regional wind maps, encompassing both onshore and offshore resources evaluated at multiple heights and under diverse atmospheric conditions. Beyond estimating electricity generation potential, the study analyzes the country’s energy consumption profile and its current patterns of power generation and demand, underscoring the strategic role of wind energy within this broader context. The paper also examines public policies that have supported the sector’s expansion, highlighting how regulatory instruments and incentive mechanisms have facilitated market development and integration into the national energy matrix. Overall, the findings indicate that Brazil’s wind sector is expanding rapidly and consistently, driven by substantial untapped resources that continue to sustain the growth of installed capacity.
Materials and methods
The data utilized in this study were derived from multiple complementary sources, including peer-reviewed scientific publications, governmental energy reports, and technical documents produced by the wind power industry. These sources comprise national energy balance sheets, official records of installed capacity, and systematic assessments of onshore and offshore wind potential. Such diversity of evidence ensures a multidimensional understanding of the Brazilian wind energy landscape.
By integrating academic, governmental, and industrial datasets, the study establishes an empirical foundation that enhances the methodological reliability of the analyses. This triangulation of sources not only strengthens the consistency and validity of the information employed but also ensures that the findings remain aligned with both the technical specificities of the sector and the broader dynamics of the Brazilian energy system.
Results and discussion
Energy consumption and production in Brazil
Brazil’s electricity generation remains highly dependent on hydropower, which accounted for 58.0% in 2022. The distribution of electricity generation sources in Brazil is presented in Figure 1. The contribution of wind power expanded significantly, rising from 1.1% in 2013 to 12.6% in 2022, accompanied by an increase in installed capacity from 2.2 GW to 23.8 GW (Ministry of Mines and Energy, 2023). Participation of energy sources in the installed capacity (Ministry of Mines and Energy, 2023).
According to the Brazilian Energy Balance (Ministry of Mines and Energy, 2023), the country’s total installed capacity for electricity generation is approximately 190,000 MW. Figure 2 illustrates this distribution from 1974 to 2022, revealing an almost exponential growth in available energy over this period. Notably, the installed capacity of wind energy has experienced substantial expansion, particularly in recent years. Installed capacity of electric energy generation (Ministry of Mines and Energy, 2023).
The expansion of wind power has positioned Brazil as the 7th largest global market and the leader in Latin America (World Wind Energy Association, 2023). By 2023, the country hosted 975 operational wind farms with a cumulative installed capacity of 27.6 GW, alongside 670 projects under construction. Despite this growth, current deployment still represents less than half of the estimated potential, projected between 60 GW and 143.5 GW at a 50 m hub height. With modern turbine technologies reaching 110 m, Brazil’s exploitable wind resources are expected to surpass these values, consolidating the role of wind power in diversifying the national energy portfolio.
Wind energy in Brazil
The study of wind energy in Brazil has received increasing attention in recent years, reflecting the country’s growing role in the global transition toward renewable energy sources. A broad range of academic contributions has advanced the understanding of Brazil’s wind potential, the regulatory and institutional environment, the economic viability of wind projects, and the interaction between wind energy and other components of the electricity system. This section reviews the most relevant recent works, emphasizing methodological contributions and the key findings that shape the academic and policy debate.
Oliveira et al. (2022) present a comprehensive study that proposes the identification of prospective zones for renewable energy deployment, with a particular focus on Brazil. The approach integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with decision-making tools that account for financial, environmental, and societal dimensions. Mathematical modeling, stochastic analysis, and integer linear programming were employed to optimize both system design and financial planning. Their results reveal Brazil’s significant renewable energy potential, with estimated outputs of 247.978 MWh km−2 y−1 for solar, 9.492 MWh km−2 y−1 for biomass, and 3.629 GWh km−2 y−1 for wind energy. Despite the abundance of wind resources, the study highlights the relatively high implementation costs of wind projects, averaging USD 124,655.75, which affected their economic feasibility under the defined criteria. Approximately two-thirds of Brazil’s territory was found suitable for renewable energy systems, yet solar and biomass were prioritized due to cost and connectivity considerations. These findings underscore the importance of multi-criteria analyses for guiding investment decisions in the Brazilian renewable energy sector.
In parallel, Costa et al. (2022) investigate the effectiveness of governmental measures in fostering the adoption and integration of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies into the national electricity grid. Employing a mixed-methods approach—combining systematic literature review with semi-structured interviews—the study evaluates the impacts of socio-economic policies and the implications of the post-COVID-19 context. Results indicate that approximately 25% of policies, motivated primarily by socio-economic concerns, significantly increased the share of wind and solar in Brazil’s energy mix, contributing to decarbonization. The study also stresses the need for new and more adaptive policies to consolidate the role of renewables in the Brazilian energy system, highlighting that policy design remains central to advancing the sector.
Regulatory and institutional aspects are also examined by Santos et al. (2020), who analyze the development of wind and PV energy in Brazil with emphasis on hybrid generation systems. Based on regulatory documents, research studies, and pilot projects, the authors identify the Northeast region as particularly favorable for centralized hybrid systems combining wind and solar generation. However, the study argues that regulatory evolution is essential to support the expansion of such projects, reinforcing the importance of adaptive governance in the renewable sector.
The integration of advanced analytical methods into energy research is exemplified by Ribeiro and Fanzeres (2024), who employ machine learning to investigate temporal patterns of wind speed and solar irradiance in resource-rich regions of Brazil. Using unsupervised learning techniques such as partitioning, hierarchical clustering, and self-organizing maps, the authors identify “exemplary days” capable of representing the behavior of renewable sources across different regions. Their findings indicate that the variability of wind and solar resources can be efficiently characterized by a small number of representative patterns, facilitating planning for hybrid systems and grid integration.
According to Ferreira et al. (2022), technological optimization and site selection are central to improving wind turbine design and identifying prime locations for installation, with technological progress reducing costs and expanding project feasibility. In a subsequent study, Ferreira et al. (2023) state that they develop a methodology for ranking locations for wind, solar, and hybrid projects, using Paraíba as a case study. By applying geostatistical interpolation methods, particularly Kriging, high-resolution datasets are generated to inform site selection and policy design. These methodological advances enhance precision in planning and investment strategies.
Institutional mechanisms such as energy auctions are central to the expansion of wind energy in Brazil. Leusin et al. (2024) examine the effects of contract mechanisms and ceiling prices in auctions, employing hybrid simulation models that integrate agent-based modeling and system dynamics. Their findings reveal how cancellation policies and hydro conditions influence auction outcomes and the growth of the wind sector. Similarly, Catarina (2022) analyzes 758 wind projects through the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), identifying investment patterns and highlighting the importance of scale for economic viability. These studies shed light on the interplay between institutional frameworks and economic outcomes in shaping the trajectory of wind development.
The socio-economic impacts of wind deployment are addressed by Vasconcellos and Caiado (2021), who apply an Interregional Input-Output model to estimate job creation and sectoral benefits of onshore wind expansion in the Northeast. The study finds that while direct effects are significant (10 jobs/MW), indirect and induced effects triple the impact (31.9 jobs/MW), with particular benefits accruing to trade, research, financial, and real estate sectors. This illustrates the broader development potential of wind energy beyond electricity supply.
From a strategic perspective, Rego and Ribeiro (2018) provide a historical overview of support mechanisms for renewables in Brazil, tracing the evolution from feed-in tariffs to the auction-based model that now dominates the sector. Their analysis highlights how coordinated policy instruments have reduced investment risks and enabled large-scale wind deployment. Rocha et al. (2023), through a systematic literature review, reinforce this view by identifying Brazil as a leading locus of techno-economic studies on wind, although they stress the need for further research in underexplored regions and contexts.
Despite these advancements, challenges persist. Diógenes et al. (2020) document the rapid expansion of wind energy in Brazil—capacity increased 37-fold in a decade—while also identifying obstacles such as transmission bottlenecks, macroeconomic instability, and limited access to capital. Based on interviews with stakeholders, they conclude that while developers can address many operational barriers, structural issues require stronger governmental intervention.
Finally, the most recent National Energy Balance, reports that Brazil’s installed wind capacity reached 23,774 MW in 2022, compared to just 2202 MW in 2013—a growth of over 1000%. This expansion consolidates wind power as a central component of Brazil’s energy transition, particularly in the Northeast and Southern regions. Nonetheless, environmental constraints, land-use conflicts, and regulatory challenges limit the full exploitation of the nation’s theoretical potential, estimated to exceed 500 GW (Ministry of Mines and Energy, 2013).
In summary, the Brazilian literature on wind energy highlights a sector that has undergone rapid technological and institutional evolution, supported by increasingly refined analytical approaches and improved regulatory mechanisms. The studies reviewed emphasize the consolidation of wind energy as a central component of the national energy transition, reinforced by advances in modeling techniques, resource assessment, site-selection methodologies, and policy instruments that have shaped the sector’s development. They also point to the growing relevance of hybrid systems, the strategic importance of regions with high wind resource availability, and the broader socio-economic benefits associated with the expansion of renewable energy infrastructure.
However, the literature also consistently identifies challenges that must be addressed to unlock the full potential of wind energy in Brazil. Economic constraints, regulatory limitations, transmission bottlenecks, and socio-environmental conflicts emerge as recurrent barriers, particularly in the context of integrating wind projects into an already complex and evolving energy system. These issues highlight the need for more adaptive governance frameworks and coordinated planning strategies. Taken together, the contributions examined provide a robust academic basis for further research and for informing public policies in one of the most dynamic renewable energy markets in the world.
The Brazilian wind potential
Onshore
Various cartographic representations and investigations are accessible, estimating the attainable wind capacity in Brazil. Efforts to gauge the national wind potential trace back to the 1970s, and the inaugural atlas of Brazilian wind potential surfaced in the 1980s. Nevertheless, all analyses originating from the 1980s exclusively regarded data collected for altitudes of no more than 10 m and were compromised by the impact of topography and obstacles, including urban impediments. During the 1990s, initiatives were instigated to assess the wind potential for elevated towers (exceeding 20 m) positioned in specific regions. The Atlas of Brazilian Wind Potential was subsequently released in 2001, encompassing the entire expanse of the nation. Subsequent to the atlas’s publication, numerous states disseminated their individual wind potential atlases (Amarante et al., 2001).
Ferreira et al. (2017) verify whether the wind speed time series of the MERRA-2 dataset can accurately represent the values at specific points in Brazilian territory. For this purpose, strategies involving interpolation, extrapolation, and bias correction are examined to overcome these limitations and obtain time series that better approximate the most probable values, as suggested in specialized literature. The results are compared with historic series recorded in Brazil to evaluate the method’s applicability and determine whether the data extracted from MERRA-2, after treatment, provide a relevant representation. The study contributes to the literature by (i) assessing the quality of MERRA-2 data to represent high spatial resolution locations in Brazil, (ii) evaluating the impacts of the natural variability of these wind speed series on the results, (iii) proposing new bias correction approaches, (iv) examining the impact of the temporal and spatial scales utilized on the results, and (v) assessing the results by comparing wind speeds.
The Brazilian wind resource atlas outlines specific areas of the country exhibiting significant wind energy potential. Measurement towers were installed along the coastline of Ceará and within the states of Bahia, Minas Gerais, and Paraná to evaluate the wind characteristics of these locations. It is important to highlight, however, that the data presented in the Brazilian National Wind Potential Atlas and various regional mappings were derived from empirical measurements conducted at selected sites and subsequently augmented by computational modeling tools that estimate surface wind conditions. These simulations replicate atmospheric behavior, including wind patterns and associated meteorological variables, utilizing a validated database (Amarante et al., 2001). As a result, such analyses provide an initial approximation of the gross wind potential and assist in the preliminary identification of promising areas for wind energy development. However, they do not represent the fully exploitable potential nor precisely determine the most suitable sites for wind farm deployment. Therefore, detailed, site-specific assessments remain essential in the areas identified to confirm the actual resource potential and the technical and economic viability of wind power installations.
Santos et al. (2024) employed a Weibull–Weibull mixture distribution to model wind speed time series from 575 meteorological stations, using six measurement heights for each of the 12 months between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2022, in order to estimate the distribution parameters. This statistical approach provided a robust representation of the diverse wind regimes across Brazil’s geographic regions. Their results regarding national wind behavior were consistent with those reported by Vinhoza et al. (2023), who evaluated the economic potential of offshore wind energy through a methodological framework integrating spatial suitability analysis with a cost estimation model grounded in established literature. Vinhoza et al. identified three major high-potential offshore zones along the northeastern, southeastern, and southern coasts, with an estimated installable capacity of 875.7 GW, an annual energy output of 489.3 TWh, and capacity factors ranging from 32% to 65%.
In spite of the multitude of investigations undertaken to assess the wind potential in Brazil, a consensus on a definitive figure has yet to be reached. Conversely, there exist numerous estimations of considerable significance. The Brazilian Wind Potential Atlas, crafted by CEPEL (an acronym in Portuguese for the Research Center in Electric Energy), posits that the overall potential within the nation is approximately 143 gigawatts (GW), yielding an annual electricity generation of 272.2 terawatt-hours (TWh/year). This potential was gauged by encompassing all regions with an average annual velocity equal to or surpassing 6 m per second. The assessment factored in the average performance curves of state-of-the-art wind turbines situated on towers exceeding 50 m in height, with intervals of 0.5 m per second, and computed the performance for the lower limit of each interval. Additionally, this estimation considered an average ground occupation density of 2 megawatts per square kilometer (MW/km2) and an availability factor of 0.98. In the integration for this estimate, areas submerged in water were excluded (Amarante et al., 2001).
Despite varying estimations and divergent methodologies employed in studies to measure wind speeds and approximate potential, the most notable estimations consistently propose that the total wind potential of the country falls within the range of 60,000 MW to 143,500 MW (Amarante et al., 2001).
According to the cartographic representation shown in Figure 3, the majority of Brazil’s wind energy potential (over 50%) is concentrated in the northeastern region. This area is characterized by steady coastal winds, which contribute to its substantial wind resource and create an advantageous environment for the development of wind farms. The southeastern region follows, hosting approximately 20% of the country’s wind potential, while the southern region accounts for roughly 16% of the total. The region with the least wind potential is the central-western area, with the primary concentration located in the southwestern part of the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, near the border with Paraguay. The northern region, largely covered by the Amazon rainforest, exhibits limited wind potential due to its geographical and climatic conditions. Wind resource potential and corresponding annual power generation by region (Amarante et al., 2001).
Currently, Brazil has 1059 operational wind farms, with the state of Bahia standing out as the leader, hosting 334 of these facilities. Together, these wind farms account for a total of 10,429 wind turbines installed across the country. The installed generation capacity of this infrastructure reaches 30.96 GW, representing a significant contribution to Brazil’s renewable energy matrix (SIGA, 2023). This rapid development highlights the central role of wind power in diversifying the national energy system and reducing dependence on traditional hydroelectric generation.
In addition to the existing capacity, Brazil is undergoing a new expansion phase in its wind energy sector. A total of 586 wind farms are currently under construction, distributed across several states, consolidating the country’s position as a global leader in wind power development. Once fully operational, these projects are expected to add 24.26 GW of installed capacity to the national grid (SIGA, 2023). This growth trajectory illustrates not only the country’s favorable wind potential but also the commitment to sustainable energy expansion, aligned with global decarbonization goals.
The continuous expansion of wind power in Brazil provides multiple benefits. On the one hand, it enhances energy security by increasing the share of non-hydro renewables, reducing vulnerability to hydrological variability. On the other, it stimulates regional economic development, particularly in the Northeast, where most wind farms are concentrated. Furthermore, the integration of large-scale wind energy projects strengthens Brazil’s potential to meet international climate commitments, positioning the country as a key player in the global transition toward low-carbon energy systems.
Offshore
Despite Brazil’s vast territorial extension and favorable wind regimes, no offshore wind farms have been developed to date; all existing operational projects remain onshore, largely due to the country’s extensive availability of suitable land for large-scale installations and comparatively lower development complexity. Nonetheless, Brazil possesses a considerable and still largely unexplored offshore wind potential. The first governmental technical report dedicated exclusively to this theme, published in 2020, estimated a potential of approximately 700 GW in areas with water depths of up to 50 m (Energy Research Company, 2020). Subsequent studies have expanded this perspective, revealing not only the magnitude of the available resource but also the set of technological, economic, and institutional challenges that need to be addressed for offshore wind to become a feasible component of the national energy matrix.
The scientific literature has increasingly emphasized the importance of establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework to enable offshore wind deployment in Brazil. González et al. (2020), through an extensive review and comparative analyses, underscored lessons from mature offshore markets such as Denmark, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Their findings indicate that clear licensing procedures, transparent maritime spatial planning, and stable long-term contracting mechanisms are key to reducing investor uncertainty. They also draw parallels with Brazil’s long-standing offshore oil and gas sector, suggesting that the country already possesses relevant institutional experience in managing complex marine projects, although significant adaptations are required to account for the distinct environmental, spatial, and ownership characteristics of offshore wind.
Parallel research has investigated the technical and system-integration implications of offshore wind. Borba et al. (2023) analyzed the complementarity between offshore wind generation and hydropower, highlighting that offshore wind tends to exhibit high capacity factors and temporal variability patterns that differ from those of onshore wind and hydroelectric inflows. This complementarity could mitigate hydrological risks, particularly during dry seasons, improving overall system resilience and contributing to emissions reduction. However, these technical benefits depend on substantial investments in transmission infrastructure, grid reinforcement, and offshore substation technology, all of which remain underdeveloped in the Brazilian context. Additionally, challenges related to deep-water foundations, corrosion-resistant materials, and turbine maintenance at far-shore locations increase the engineering complexity of potential projects.
Economic assessments further highlight the hurdles to offshore wind deployment. Reis et al. (2021) conducted an economic evaluation using CAPEX and LCOE indicators, identifying the Northeast coast as the most competitive region, with estimated costs of around US$ 69.9/MWh. While this region shows clear potential, other coastal areas present only moderate feasibility due to a combination of lower wind quality, deeper waters, and greater distance to shore—all factors that increase development costs. These economic barriers are compounded by the absence of dedicated financing mechanisms, risk-mitigation instruments, and incentive structures comparable to those offered in more mature offshore markets. Complementarily, Ozato et al. (2023) developed a probabilistic framework to assess LCOE under alternative tax regimes and green certificate scenarios. Their analysis reinforced the competitiveness of the Northeast but also pointed to additional viable opportunities in Rio Grande do Sul and Rio de Janeiro, provided that fiscal incentives and tailored remuneration schemes are implemented.
From a regulatory standpoint, Brazil faces significant challenges, as the country still lacks an integrated legal framework tailored to offshore wind development. This regulatory vacuum generates uncertainty regarding maritime concessions, environmental licensing procedures, and the coexistence of offshore wind with other marine activities such as fishing, shipping, and oil and gas operations. In the absence of clear rules on seabed rights, grid access, and revenue mechanisms, project developers face elevated risks that can delay investment decisions or deter potential entrants. Although recent discussions within federal institutions indicate progress toward the creation of a dedicated offshore wind decree and a long-term regulatory roadmap, these efforts remain under negotiation and require effective coordination among multiple agencies and government levels. According to the World Bank (2024), Brazil possesses one of the world’s most promising offshore wind portfolios, with more than 1200 GW of technical potential—distributed between fixed-bottom opportunities in shallow waters and extensive floating-wind prospects in deeper areas. These resources are not only robust and spatially diverse but are also located close to major demand centers, offering pathways to reduce transmission constraints and enhance national energy security. Unlocking this potential, however, hinges on addressing the intertwined technical, economic, and regulatory challenges that currently impede project viability. Altogether, evidence suggests that offshore wind could assume a strategic long-term role within Brazil’s energy matrix, but its advancement will depend on coherent regulatory action, technological adaptation to Brazilian offshore conditions, and the establishment of economic instruments capable of mobilizing large-scale private investment.
Brazil X Latin America
The development of wind energy in Brazil presents specific characteristics that distinguish it from the rest of Latin America, particularly in terms of installation scale and integration into the national power system. According to Cacciuttolo et al. (2024), the South American region has advanced in adopting wind energy as a strategy to diversify the energy mix and reduce dependence on hydropower generation, with Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay standing out. However, Brazil has consolidated itself as the regional leader, both in installed capacity and in annual expansion, as a result of more robust energy planning, incentive policies, and a broad availability of onshore wind resources. These factors place the country in a strategic position within the Latin American context, contributing significantly to energy security and to the transition toward a low-carbon economy.
A quantitative comparison of installed capacity reinforces this structural difference. In 2023, Brazil reached 25,055 MW of installed wind capacity, while South America as a whole accounted for 39,298 MW, according to data compiled by Cacciuttolo et al. (2024). This means that Brazil represents approximately 64% of all installed wind capacity in the region. Excluding Brazil, the remaining Latin American countries total 14,243 MW, led by Chile (5993 MW), Argentina (4363 MW), and Uruguay (1645 MW). Countries such as Peru, Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Paraguay have capacities below 1000 MW, highlighting an earlier stage of sectoral development. This contrast underscores Brazil’s dominant position in the region and its relevance for advancing renewable energy deployment in Latin America.
Despite this leadership, Brazil shares with other Latin American countries several challenges related to the environmental impacts of wind energy expansion. The study by Rebolo-Ifrán et al. (2025) shows that the installation of wind farms in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Brazil, still lacks adequate monitoring of risks to birds and bats, and that areas with high wind potential often overlap with habitats of threatened species. Although Brazil benefits from greater technical and regulatory capacity, biodiversity conservation challenges are similar to those observed in neighboring countries, making it essential to adopt preventive measures, standardized impact assessment methodologies, and effective environmental mitigation strategies.
Finally, when comparing Brazil with other Latin American countries, a convergence emerges regarding the recognition of wind energy as a strategic component of the regional energy transition, but significant divergence persists in the pace of expansion and the degree of technological diversification. While many countries face structural limitations, Brazil is moving toward new vectors, including the development of offshore wind and synergies with green hydrogen, as highlighted by Cacciuttolo et al. (2024). Even so, the conclusions of Rebolo-Ifrán et al. (2025) reinforce that—regardless of installed capacity—Latin American countries, including Brazil, must strengthen ecological studies, promote more rigorous environmental assessments, and integrate mitigation measures into early project planning to ensure that wind energy expansion occurs in an environmentally sustainable manner.
Brazil X BRICS
Brazil’s position within the group of BRICS countries reveals a consistent trajectory of wind energy expansion, although the country remains at an intermediate level when compared to the bloc’s Asian economies. As discussed by Khare et al. (2023), Brazil’s electricity matrix is strongly anchored in renewable sources, creating an institutional environment conducive to the incorporation of wind technologies. In contrast, China and India stand out due to the significantly larger scale of their installed capacities, driven by robust industrial policies and continuous investments in energy infrastructure. Complementarily, Moreira Perôcco et al. (2023) show that, by 2018, Brazil had already become the third-largest wind energy producer among the BRICS—positioned ahead of Russia and South Africa, though still far below the levels observed in China and India.
The data presented by Moreira Perôcco et al. (2023) provide a more precise understanding of the structural asymmetries within the bloc. In 2018, China led with a wide margin, followed by India, while Brazil, South Africa, and Russia completed the hierarchy in that order. Projections for the 2018–2023 period suggest that this hierarchy remains unchanged, yet with distinct growth dynamics: Russia and Brazil exhibited the largest percentage increases in installed wind capacity—132.65% and 79.90%, respectively—while China and India, despite maintaining the highest absolute capacities, recorded proportionally smaller growth rates of 48.73% and 33.26%. Although the absolute differences remain substantial, these proportional gains indicate that Brazil is expanding at a faster pace than the bloc’s leading economies. Nevertheless, even with this strong relative performance, Brazil still operates at a much smaller scale than the Asian powers, whose deployment levels remain incomparably higher (Hlongwane and Khobai, 2025).
Consequently, Brazil has consolidated itself as the third-largest wind energy producer within the BRICS, exhibiting an upward trajectory and favorable prospects for continued expansion in the medium term. While its absolute installed capacity remains far from those of China and India, the country’s proportional performance and recent dynamism position it strategically within the bloc’s broader energy transition. Furthermore, when compared with Russia and South Africa, Brazil demonstrates greater stability, higher capacity to attract investment, and a more supportive institutional environment for renewable energy development, reinforcing its growing significance in the BRICS energy policy landscape (Hlongwane and Khobai, 2025).
Public policies in the Brazilian context
As wind power generation is a relatively recent component of Brazil’s energy matrix, a series of public policies has been introduced to support its expansion. Juárez et al. (2014) provide a comprehensive overview of the growing contribution of wind energy to the national electricity system, examining its main technical, political, and social implications. Their study reviews advancements in wind energy technologies, evaluates wind resource availability, and traces the historical evolution of installed capacity in the country. It also analyzes institutional programs and fiscal incentives established by the Brazilian government, along with their broader societal effects. In the present study, we conducted a review of national and international reports, as well as relevant scientific literature, to assess the development of wind energy in Brazil. Our analysis indicates that the 2001 electricity crisis played a pivotal role in prompting the government to adopt a new set of energy policies, which accelerated the early expansion of the wind sector—initially dependent on imported technology. In 2004, regulatory measures were introduced requiring the domestic development of wind technologies, further strengthening the sector. Projections suggest that between 2011 (with approximately 1500 MW of installed capacity) and 2021, wind capacity increased by nearly 600%, underscoring the rapid and sustained growth of the industry.
Soares et al. (2021) discuss in their work the political mobilization of interest groups related to shifts in the wind power regime, their methods of influencing the governmental agenda, and the primary discursive strategies employed. The analysis spans the period from 2000 to 2018, using Brazil as a case study. It allowed us to identify the strategies used to influence the political process carried out by the political subsystem formed around the wind power regime.
In the current Brazilian context, wind technology thrives within a favorable environment. Approved public policies actively promote the harnessing of wind resources, leading to the availability of numerous loans for electricity generation projects. This substantial support has significantly bolstered the country’s installed wind capacity, propelling Brazil to become the world’s third-largest market for wind turbines in 2014, contributing to 7% of global wind turbine sales that year (Ferreira et al., 2022). This expansion continues in 2022. A subdued year in terms of wind energy can also be observed in the remaining five major wind markets, including the USA, Germany, India, and Spain. In contrast, Brazil has demonstrated outstanding performance by adding 4 GW of new capacity, firmly establishing itself as the third-largest market for new wind turbines (Ministry of Mines and Energy, 2023).
These wind farms serve various purposes, encompassing self-energy production, independent energy production, and other applications related to energy. Most of these wind farms are situated in the northeast region, with a notable presence in the south region, while the southeast region features a limited number of wind farms. In contrast, the regions with lower potential, the north and mid-west, currently do not host any wind farms.
In a related contribution, Amanda and Schaeffer (2021) evaluate Brazil’s offshore wind potential using an innovative methodological framework designed to classify and spatially map resource availability across three dimensions: Gross Potential, Technical Potential, and Environmental & Social Potential. The study employs a Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to identify areas with the highest economic feasibility for offshore wind deployment. The results indicate that Brazil holds a Gross Potential of 1688 GW, a Technical Potential of 1064 GW, and an Environmental and Social Potential of 330 GW. Regions with lower economic attractiveness are concentrated in the Southeast, while the Northeast emerges as the most favorable area for large-scale offshore development. The authors additionally identify the ten most promising offshore zones, which together account for a cumulative potential of 126 GW.
It is important to highlight that public policies are essential for enabling the implementation of offshore wind projects, which are expected to assume a growing role in Brazil’s long-term energy strategy. Nonetheless, initial offshore developments will incur higher generation costs compared to onshore wind and will require substantial strengthening of national industrial and technological capabilities if Brazil is to effectively compete with established European markets or with emerging markets in the Americas (World Bank, 2024).
Conclusions
Brazil has already achieved significant progress in the deployment of onshore wind energy, with more than 30 GW of installed capacity distributed across over 1000 wind farms nationwide. This rapid expansion has demonstrated the viability and competitiveness of wind power, especially in the Northeast, where strong and consistent wind regimes make the region a global reference for onshore wind generation. Onshore wind has become a reliable complement to hydropower, helping to reduce the risks of hydrological variability and strengthening the resilience of the Brazilian energy matrix.
The next frontier lies in offshore wind development. With a technical potential exceeding 1200 GW—including both fixed-bottom and floating technologies—offshore wind could provide a transformative contribution to Brazil’s long-term energy security. However, realizing this potential requires decisive political and regulatory action, as initial projects will face higher costs compared to onshore facilities and demand significant investment in national industrial and logistical capacities.
Key policy priorities include: • Regulatory Framework: Establish a clear, stable, and transparent regulatory environment to provide legal certainty for investors in both onshore and offshore projects. • Financial Mechanisms: Create targeted incentives, including tax benefits, green certificates, and financing instruments to mitigate the higher initial costs of offshore projects. • Infrastructure Expansion: Invest in grid integration, port infrastructure, and specialized vessels to support the deployment of large-scale offshore farms. • Industrial Development: Promote local content requirements and support the creation of domestic supply chains for turbines, towers, and subsea equipment, generating skilled jobs and boosting national competitiveness. • Socio-environmental Safeguards: Ensure that both onshore and offshore projects incorporate robust environmental licensing, community engagement, and strategies to preserve biodiversity while fostering equitable regional development.
By consolidating its already successful onshore wind sector and advancing offshore wind through comprehensive public policies, Brazil has the opportunity to establish itself as a global leader in renewable energy. This dual strategy—maximizing the contribution of mature onshore capacity while unlocking offshore potential—can accelerate the transition toward a cleaner, more diversified, and resilient energy system, while simultaneously stimulating industrial innovation, regional development, and social inclusion.
Footnotes
Author contribution
JC: conceptualization, methodology, investigation, data curation, formal analysis, and writing—original draft; FP: writing—review and editing.
Funding
The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Declaration of conflicting interests
The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Data Availability Statement
The datasets generated or analyzed during the present study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.