Abstract
In Crisis Without End? Andrew Gamble provides a thorough analysis of the financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath. Using language accessible to the non-expert and a clear exposition, Gamble argues that the current crisis is the result of a structural impasse of the neoliberal order, and guides the reader through the argument while engaging with counter-arguments. Crisis Without End? is a valuable contribution to political economy, and a standout piece in the flourishing literature about the crisis. The book should be commended for highlighting the complexity of the economic system, although it fails to provide the same depth of analysis in relation to the environmental problems it tackles.
Gamble starts the discussion by exposing three possible interpretations of the crisis: (1) as a one-off event concentrated mainly in Anglo-America; (2) as a turning point leading to a new world order; and (3) as an impasse, that is, a situation in which the most immediate crisis has been contained, but there remains a structural crisis underneath. The book is centred on this third hypothesis, which is explored from a plurality of perspectives.
Gamble examines the remarkable resilience of the neoliberal order in the face of the crisis. This is one of the most interesting arguments of the book. Contrary to previous crises, the hegemonic order has not changed fundamentally so far. The author argues that the resilience of the neoliberal system is due to the capacity of the system to adapt and disregard alternatives, rather than to a lack of criticism.
A minor weakness of this discussion is one common to much of the literature that emerged in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, namely the fact that it is too early to establish or measure the effects of the crisis. Gamble suggests that no political party threatening to pull out of the euro or to desist from servicing debt has been elected – just a few months before the election of Syriza in Greece. Adjustments in complex socio-economic systems are necessarily gradual and often unpredictable, so that it is tricky to interpret the course of events so close to the event itself. Small misjudgements are unavoidable and understandable in this context.
The impasse of the neoliberal-order crisis is explained through three conundrums: those of governance, growth and fiscal policy. The governance conundrum highlights the tension between the unified market order required by neoliberalism and the fragmented state system. In the fiscal conundrum, the author tackles the tension between the lowering of taxes required by competition in the international market order and the entitlement state resulting from democracy. In this discussion, Gamble is able to link and identify the inconsistencies that emerge from different scales of analysis, and to describe the complexity of the system.
In relation to the growth conundrum, I was somewhat disappointed by the way environmental issues are analysed. While in the discussion of the economy, the author is well aware of the dangers of oversimplification (‘The modern economy is much too diverse, much too complex and much too flexible to be captured in that way’, p. 150), the same logic fails to be applied to the analysis of the ecological system. The consideration of environmental problems is reduced to the issue of climate change, explained in simplified terms, as exemplified by the statement, ‘To keep the global temperature rise to 2 degrees by 2050 implies a carbon ceiling for emission of 2 tonnes for every person on the planet’ (p. 149).
Similarly to the economic system, the ecological system is too complex to extrapolate trends into the future, so that predictions about the year 2050 should be taken with a grain of salt. Second, estimates of the effects of carbon emissions are characterised by high levels of uncertainty. In the third place, even though the author carefully examines arguments and counterarguments throughout the book, the discussion of environmental issues is based on a single source, the Stern report. A very wide literature on the environmental aspects of the crisis has been produced, including pieces analysing the relationship between energy and economic growth (Hall & Klitgaard 2012; Tverberg 2012; Smil 2008), the biophysical requirements of economic growth (Giampietro et al. 2012); and the complexity of agro-food systems (Pimentel et al. 2005; Giampietro 2003; Gomiero et al. 2010), to name but a few. Whilst one cannot be expected to be familiar with all bodies of literature from other fields, the overview provided in relation to the growth conundrum does not add new elements to existing debates. Nevertheless, this is the only weak chapter of the book, which is otherwise very carefully argued and thought provoking.
The book ends with an enriching discussion of future scenarios. Gamble uses this analysis to highlight the trade-offs, critical assumptions and changes that need to occur in order for a change to occur in the current economic order. This discussion is one of the highlights of the book, tying all the arguments presented into a coherent framework.
The scenario analysis is such an important contribution that it could be further expanded to take into account how the three conundrums identified unfold in the emerging economies. For example, the fiscal conundrum is particularly relevant to the populist policies pursued by the Brazilian government since 2002. Although outside of the scope of the book, it would be interesting to assess the viability of the scenarios based on the emergence of new economic powers in light of a more detailed analysis of emerging economies.
In summary, the author provides a wide range of well structured and persuasive arguments in support of his central thesis. The political ecology approach is a valuable contribution to the analysis of the crisis. The only weakness worth noting consists in the limited discussion of the environmental constraints to economic growth. Nevertheless, Gamble deserves praise for his careful analysis of the plurality of arguments and of the complexity of the political economy of the crisis. Given the value of the analysis presented, it might be developed further still through its extension and application to emerging economies and developing countries.