Developing an Empirical Pipeline and Rail Crude Oil Mode Split and Route Assignment Model

In recent years, improvements in pipeline capacities and connectivity have been inhibited by environmental and political concerns (e.g., the Dakota and Keystone XL pipeline expansion projects). This has resulted in a greater dependency on rail transport, and this modal shift of crude oil from pipeline to rail is likely to become more pronounced in the future. Therefore, there is a need to assess the impacts of future changes in pipeline/rail network connectivity, modal attributes, and shipment protocols, on the expected pattern of crude oil shipments. This paper presents a rule-based mode split and route assignment model that reflects real-world allocation, assignment, and apportionment rules. The decision-making process underlying this model is the shipper, who is prioritized by the carrier when there is limited pipeline capacity available. The proposed algorithm allows for the inclusion of crude oil shipments and the pipeline network into conventional freight demand models by capturing the complex interactions of crude shippers, pipeline carriers, and regulatory bodies. This paper demonstrates how the model can be used to predict changes in Canadian crude oil flow patterns and mode shares subject to changes in specific transportation network attributes or crude oil demands.