Investigating Pavement Maintenance and Rehabilitation Requirement Based on Material Types and Traffic Levels through an Application of Probabilistic Approach for Ontario Highways

Abstract

In a pavement management system (PMS), time to maintenance is generally estimated based on the predicted condition of the pavement. Usually a deterministic approach is applied in the PMS to estimate the time to maintenance by following the deterioration equation of the performance index. However, it is necessary to be aware of the probability of failure to investigate whether the estimated time to maintenance by the deterministic approach is reasonably probable. For this reason, a probabilistic approach is applied in this study to estimate the probability of failure over the estimated time to maintenance. In this approach, the probability of failure is estimated from the distribution of the mean time to maintenance by considering both the overall condition of the pavement and individual instances of distress. These mean times to failure or maintenance are calculated from the overall condition of pavement in relation to the pavement condition index (PCI) when the trigger value becomes 65 or less. A pavement may be expected to fail, however, because of any specific distress before it reaches the PCI trigger value for maintenance. For this reason, the probability of failure of each specific distress is also investigated by using a Monte Carlo simulation. It is found that the survival probability up to the fifth year is approximately 80% to 90% for each category of traffic and material type based on the overall condition, and the probability of failure for individual distress is very low over the performance cycle.

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Jannat

Tighe

Developing Performance Prediction Models Based on Traffic and Materials by Incorporating Mechanistic-Empirical Approach for Ontario Highways. Presented at 96th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2017.

Jannat

Tighe

Developing New Performance Index for Assessing Overall Pavement Condition by Incorporating of Mechanistic-Empirical Approach for Ontario Highways. Proc., 2016 Transportation Association of Canada Conference, Toronto, ON, Canada, 2016.

Prozzi

J. A.

Modelling of Pavement Performance by Combining Field and Experimental Data. PhD thesis. University of California, Berkeley, CA, 2001.

Jannat

Tighe

An Experimental Design Based Evaluation of Sensitivities of Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG): Investigating Main and Interaction Effects of Input Factors. International Journal of Pavement Engineering, Vol. 17, No. 7, 2015, pp. 615–625.

Henning

Jannat

Zhang

Tighe

Engineering Criteria and Standards for Key Pavement Performance. MTO Final Report. Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada, 2015.

MTO. Pavement Design and Rehabilitation Manual. Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada, 1990.

Kazmierowski

Kerr

A Second Generation PMS for the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario. Proc., 5th International Conference on Managing Pavements, Seattle, WA, 2001.

Ningyuan

Kazmierowski

Tighe

Haas

Integrating Dynamic Performance Prediction Models into Pavement Management Maintenance and Rehabilitation Programs. Proc., 5th International Conference on Managing Pavements, Seattle, WA, 2001.

Prozzi

J. A.

Madanat

S. M.

Using Duration Models to Analyze Experimental Failure Data. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2000. 1699: 87–94.

10.

Madanat

S. M.

Prozzi

J. A.

Han

Effect of Performance Model Accuracy on Optimal Pavement Design. Journal of Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 1, 2002, pp. 22–30.

11.

Pavement Asset Design and Management Guide . Transportation Association of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada, 2013.

12.

Jannat

Developing Cost-Effective Pavement Maintenance and Rehabilitation Schedules: Application of MEPDG-Based Distress Models and Key Performance Index. PhD thesis. University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, 2017.

13.

MTO. Ontario Provincial Standard Specification (OPSS-1150): Material Specification for Hot Mix Asphalt. Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada, 2010.

14.

Benjamin

J. R.

Cornel

C. A.

Probability Statistics and Decisions for Civil Engineers. McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, 1970.

15.

Ang

A. H. S

Tang

W. H.

Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol. 1 & 2. John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, 1975.

16.

Pandey

Engineering Risk and Reliability. Risks Based Life Cycle Management of Engineering System, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada, 2014.