Historical Demography for Late Marriage in China

Introduction

Age at first marriage is an important measure of population characteristics. It is directly related to fertility and the replacement period between generations. With the development of population policy and social economy, marriage age in the Chinese population has gradually increased since the establishment of New China in 1949. Currently, China has entered the modern pattern of population reproduction manifested by low birth rates, low death rates, low growth rates, lower total fertility rates, and late marriage according to the laws of population development. ¹ However, a fact that cannot be ignored is that China’s current total fertility rate has dropped to 1.18, ² and China has become one of the so-called lowest-low fertility countries. In the context of new policies on marriage and fertility, the proportion of people marrying later in life is increasing. Admittedly, late marriage is not necessarily a problem, but it is a critical demographic and social phenomenon that goes against the sustainable development of the country’s population, according to the Chinese government and scholars. In addition, some social problems stem from late marriage such as the “leftover singles” problem, which not only causes stress in individuals but also impedes social harmony and stability. ³ To date, researchers have made some important findings regarding marriage patterns. For example, Edlund performed studies on sex ratios and crime. Hajnal conducted important research on the age at marriage and the proportion of people who marry in Western industrialized countries. Blossfeld and Jaenichen analyzed the effect of educational expansion on the timing of first marriages in the Federal Republic of Germany. Carmichael studied the age at first marriage and spousal age gap in seventy-seven lesser developed countries and found that education was key in determining the age at which women married. ⁴

There have been relatively few studies on the age at first marriage in the Chinese population, and most studies have focused on the description and estimation of average age at first marriage, as well as small sample analyses of factors associated with marriage age. However, researchers have not paid much attention to the causes and historical clues of late marriage. The development of any population phenomenon is a long-term process, in which historical experiences can often provide some ideas and methods for dealing with current issues. China is one of the world’s oldest civilizations, and since history can serve as a critical guide, verifying marriage ages in previous dynasties and analyzing the phenomenon of late marriage as well as its background can provide a historical reference for interpreting the current delayed age of marriage. The goal of this verification study was to explore the historical clues for the current delayed age at marriage. In addition, we provide suggestions to alleviate the phenomenon of late marriage.

Relationship between Education Level and Age at First Marriage in China’s Current Society

Data collected from the households using a long-form questionnaire in the sixth national census released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2010 were used in this part of the study. This form was completed by 10 percent of the Chinese households that were selected by systematic random sampling. Tables 3–6, “Population by sex, educational attainment and age at first marriage” (Appendix 1), was the main data source, and summarized the education information of 82,749,443 people who had been married at least once when the survey was conducted, regardless of age.

According to China’s current family planning policy, late marriage refers to a marriage age that is three years or more than the legal age of marriage, which is at least twenty-three years for women and at least twenty-five years old for men. To investigate the relationship between late marriage and the level of education in China’s current society, we divided the survey participants into two groups: (1) late marriage group and (2) not late marriage group. The χ² test was used to compare the education levels of the two groups, and logistic regression analysis using SPSS statistical software version 11.0 was used to examine the relationship between education level and age at first marriage.

Table 1 shows that the proportion of late marriages increased, as the level of education in both men and women increased (p < .001). Logistic regression analysis (Table 2) showed that educated people were more likely to report late marriage age than their uneducated counterparts. In comparison to those who never attended school, the odds ratio (OR) of late marriage among men with high school, junior college, undergraduate, or postgraduate education was 1.54 (95 percent confidence interval [CI]: 1.53, 1.54), 2.86 (2.84, 2.87), 4.94 (4.91, 4.96), and 8.47 (8.36, 8.59), respectively; the OR among women with primary school, middle school, high school, junior college, undergraduate, or postgraduate education was 1.27 (1.27, 1.27), 1.86 (1.85, 1.86), 4.20 (4.19, 4.21), 7.79 (7.76, 7.82), 15.09 (15.00, 15.17), and 37.64 (36.77, 38.53), respectively. Therefore, an increase in education level correlated with an increase in the rate of late marriage in China.

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Table 1.

Education Attainment among Males and Females, by Late Marriage.

Education level	Male				Female
	Late marriage	Not late marriage	χ2	p Value	Late marriage	Not late marriage	χ2	p Value
Uneducated	459,112 (3.33 percent)	980,046 (3.76 percent)	1860135.46	<.001	1,101,790 (7.07 percent)	3,712,237 (13.61 percent)	3,465,645.47	<.001
Primary school	3,205,329 (23.24 percent)	6,857,323 (26.29 percent)			3,672,977 (23.56 percent)	9,739,014 (35.69 percent)
Middle school	5,345,339 (38.76 percent)	13,438,827 (51.53 percent)			6,085,033 (39.02 percent)	11,034,185 (40.44 percent)
High school	2,462,488 (17.85 percent)	3,424,210 (13.13 percent)			2,575,681 (16.52 percent)	2,067,118 (7.58 percent)
Junior college	1,258,083 (9.12 percent)	940,377 (3.61 percent)			1,255,407 (8.05 percent)	542,746 (1.99 percent)
Undergraduate	944,310 (6.85 percent)	408,164 (1.57 percent)			815,556 (5.23 percent)	182,136 (0.67 percent)
Postgraduate	117,839 (0.85 percent)	29,686 (0.11 percent)			86,672 (0.56 percent)	7,758 (0.03 percent)

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Table 2.

Results of Logistic Regression Analysis on the Relation between Late Marriage and Education Levels.

Education level	Male						Female
	B	Wald	p	OR	95 percent CI	B	Wald	p	OR	95 percent CI
Uneducated		166,4143.42	<.001	1.00			296,1433.74	<.001	1.00
Primary school	0.00	1.32	.251	1.00	0.99 ∼1.00	0.24	36,979.42	<.001	1.27	1.27 ∼1.27
Middle school	−0.16	7,737.29	<.001	0.85	0.85 ∼0.85	0.62	268,038.87	<.001	1.86	1.85 ∼1.86
High school	0.43	47,144.51	<.001	1.54	1.53 ∼1.54	1.43	1,004,507.35	<.001	4.20	4.19 ∼4.21
Junior college	1.05	217,763.76	<.001	2.86	2.84 ∼2.87	2.05	1,104,793.84	<.001	7.79	7.76 ∼7.82
Undergraduate	1.60	380,278.60	<.001	4.94	4.91 ∼4.96	2.71	933,013.46	<.001	15.09	15.00 ∼15.17
Postgraduate	2.14	100,650.13	<.001	8.47	8.36 ∼8.59	3.63	92,950.91	<.001	37.64	36.77 ∼38.53
Constant	−0.76	179,781.43	<.001	0.47		−1.21	1,253,611.63	<.001	0.30

Note: OR = odds ratio; CI = confidence interval.

The Custom of Early Marriage in Ancient China

In the history of population development in China, the ancient feudal society was in the historical period when China experienced population growth. At that time, early marriage and early childbearing was encouraged by governments to promote population breeding, increase population quantity, and improve population quality. For example, in the twenty-second year (734 AD) of the Kaiyuan reign of Emperor Xuanzong of the Tang Dynasty (618 AD–907 AD), he promulgated the edict that men over 15 years and women over 13 years of age are allowed to marry. ⁵ At that time, people chose to marry and have children early. In the Eastern Zhou Dynasty (770 BC–256 BC), early marriage was common; men generally got married at 20 years old and women got married at 15 years old, thereby complying with social traditions, as well as sense of family, social, political, and physiological factors. ⁶ The custom of early marriage was also popular in the Han Dynasty (202 BC–220 AD). Bamboo slips unearthed in Juyan provided information showing that some women were already wives at the age of 13. ⁷ The age of marriage for women in the Three Kingdoms Period (220 AD–280 AD) was 17, and for men was generally between 15 and 17. During the Jin Dynasty (1115 AD–1234 AD), the age of marriage for women was often under 16 and for men it was often under 15. The age of marriage during the Northern and Southern Dynasties (386 AD–589 AD) was about 13 for women and 14 for men. ⁸ The average age at first marriage for women in the Tang Dynasty (618 AD–907 AD) was between 15.6 to 17.84 years old. ⁹ The average age of marriage for women in Huizhou in the Ming Dynasty (1368 AD–1644 AD) was 17.34 years old, and the age of marriage for most men was between 14 and 22. ¹⁰ The average marriage age for women in the Qing Dynasty (1644 AD–1911 AD) was 17.28 years old. ¹¹ These studies on marriage age in ancient China are detailed in Table 3, and a brief Chinese chronology can be found in Appendix 2.

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Table 3.

The Studies on the Actual Marriage Age of All Feudal Dynasties in China.

ID	Author and year of study	Dynasty of study	Average age at first marriage (year)		Number of samples		Source of samples
			Females	Males	Females	Males
The studies on age at first marriage of Song Dynasty
1	Tao, J. S. (2001)	Song Dynasty (960 AD–1276 AD)	18	—	68	—	Collections of three litterateurs
2	Xu, J. J. (2001)		18.07	24.15	60	34	The epitaphs from ten collections of litterateurs
3	Fang, J. X. (2011)		19.65	—	79	—	Thirteen collections of litterateurs
4	Cheng, M. S. (2006)		18.8	22.3	114	58	Collections of litterateurs and epitaphs
5	Ebrey, P. (2004)		19	21	65	65	Couples with information of date of birth and marriage age
6	Zheng, L. P. (2010)		19.04	—	418	—	The epitaphs recorded in The Complete Works of Song
The studies on age at first marriage of other dynasties
7	Lv, Y. H. (2003)	Eastern Zhou Dynasty (770 BC–256 BC)	15	20	—	—	The pre-Qin historical records
8	Liu, L. (2012)	Han Dynasty (202 BC–220 AD)	13–15	—	—	—	The bamboo slips unearthed in Juyan
9	Xue, R. Z. (1993)	Three Kingdoms (220 AD–280 AD)	17	15-17	—	—	Weishu (history of Wei Dynasty)
		Jin Dynasty (265 AD–420 AD)	Under 16	15	—	—	Jinshu (history of Jin Dynasty)
		Northern and Southern Dynasties (386 AD–589 AD)	13	14	—	—	The history of the Northern Dynasties
10	Mao, H. G. (1991)	Tang Dynasty (618 AD–907 AD)	15.6	—	350	—	The epitaphs of the Tang Dynasty
11	Li, S. T. (1967)		16	—	25	—	Historical records
12	Li, B. C. (1998)		17.7	—	158	—	The epitaphs of the Tang Dynasty
13	Zhang, G. G. (2004)		17.84	—	194	—	The epitaphs of the Tang Dynasty
14	Xu, J. W. (2004)	Ming Dynasty (1368 AD–1644 AD)	17.34	17-19	32	—	The registers in Huizhou in the Wanli period of Ming Dynasty
15	Guo, S. Y. (2000)	Qing Dynasty (1644 AD–1911 AD)	17.28	—	—	—	Local records, family pedigrees, chronicle, and files

Marriage Mode in the Song Dynasty (960 AD–1276 AD), the Heyday of Chinese Cultural and Art

Although early marriage was common in ancient China, the marriage pattern in the Song Dynasty, the heyday of Chinese cultural and art, was an exception to the traditional society. Although there was little difference in the marriage age for males and females according to the precepts and ritual system of the Song Dynasty, men and women generally chose to marry later compared with other ancient dynasties. The minimum age of marriage for men and women of the Song Dynasty, according to the Ming Gong Shu Pan Qing Ming Ji document, was fifteen and thirteen years, respectively. In addition, the Sima Shi Shu Yi book, which was written by Sima Guang and respected by the literati and officialdom of Song Dynasty, noted that marriage negotiation, and as such, marriageable age was proper between sixteen and thirty for men and between fourteen and twenty for women. ¹²

To determine whether ancient Chinese marriages occurred late in life, marriage age should be compared with the general social concept and common phenomenon in other feudal dynasties, rather than with the age standard used today. In this context, a number of studies showed that the age at first marriage of men and women in the Song Dynasty was much older than the legal marriageable age and actual marriage age of other feudal dynasties (Table 3). This resulted in a special phenomenon—namely, the occurrence of relative “late marriage” in ancient China, which is still much earlier than the concept of late marriage today. A number of historical documents have provided support for this phenomenon. Researchers calculated the average age at first marriage for women and men based on the age of individuals at first marriage and the number of samples that were recorded in history books, collected works, epitaphs, and other materials. In order to compare them in the same culture and regime context, we only focused on the feudal dynasties of China from the Zhou Dynasty (˜1046 BC–221 BC) to the Qing Dynasty (1644 AD–1911 AD). In this report, we did not combine the results of these studies, because some samples may have been repetitive, and different studies may not have been comparable. However, observations of small samples and statistics with large samples both indicated that the average age at first marriage in the Song Dynasty was eighteen to twenty for females and twenty-one to twenty-five for males, which was five to seven and six to ten years older than the legal age of marriage for females and males, respectively. As described earlier, the age at first marriage in other ancient historical periods was much younger. Here, we determined the actual age of marriage in all previous dynasties in China using a table and box plot for each study for visual comparison. It is clear that men and women in the Song Dynasty generally got married at an older age, and their age at first marriage was significantly older than that in other ancient historical periods (Table 3 and Figure 1).

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Figure 1.

The box plot of the marriage ages of all previous dynasties in China. Note: Eastern, Three Ki, and Northern are short for Eastern Zhou, Three Kingdoms, and Northern and Southern, respectively.

Analysis of the Cause of Late Marriage in the Song Dynasty

In addition to some common reasons in various feudal dynasties, such as the state of mourning, family poverty, and social unrest, analysis of reasons for late marriage in the Song Dynasty should focus on the social customs of this highly developed culture, which functioned under a policy that emphasized the importance of literacy and education.

The Impact of the Prevalence of Education on the Marriage Age of the Song Dynasty

As described earlier, in the social and family context that focused on study and education, the career goals of almost all males in the Song Dynasty were to pass the imperial examination and to become officials. It was a programmed path that started with studying hard in childhood, followed by participating in the imperial examination, and finally, becoming officials in the imperial court. The competition between people is more intense when all have the same goal. Although the Song Dynasty removed restrictions of family status for the imperial examination in order to increase the number of eligible participants, it was still very difficult for scholars to pass the examination and thus, have the opportunity to achieve a career as an official career because of the prevalence of education. In order to pass the imperial examination, students persevered in their studies for many years despite hardships, which naturally also affected the marrying age of men. On the other hand, due to the close relationship between passing the imperial examination and becoming officials in the Song Dynasty, one’s level of knowledge was closely related to the wealth and economic security of the whole family. Therefore, many people wanted their daughters to marry degree holders, ¹⁷ and some fathers even chose to find prospective sons-in-law from the admission list. ¹⁸ Therefore, single women not only waited for a marriage proposal but also waited for him to pass the exam, thereby achieving academic success. Men delayed marriage for their studies and career, whereas women delayed marriage for the academic success and career of males. Therefore, the prevalence of education and prosperous culture in the Song Dynasty caused a delay in the age of marriage for males and females. A summary of these data is shown in Figure 2.

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Figure 2.

The mechanism diagram of the cause of late marriage in Song Dynasty.

Similarities in Late Marriage between the Song Dynasty and Current Society

The first part of the results of this study showed increases in education level significantly correlates with the risk of late marriage in China. There are many factors that could influence the marrying age of Chinese people, such as culture, policy, socioeconomic level, migration, employment status, and the age gap between spouses. ¹⁹ However, the results of our study also provide a possible factor based on the big data, although we did not fix these variables because of the limitation of data. In addition, the results of many relative studies support the relationship between education and marriage age. For example, a study based on the China’s 1 percent National Population Sample Survey in 1995 reported that the average age at first marriage of the female population gradually increases with improvement of the level of education. ²⁰ Another study on changes in the age at first marriage for women in China also showed that the marriage age of women with a higher education level is always later in both urban and rural areas. ²¹ Furthermore, some international studies, such as Hatti and Ohlsson’s research on India and Ikamari’s research on Kenya, found a positive relationship between education and age at marriage. ²²

The influence of education on marriage age can also be indicated by changes in policies. A substantial amount of research showed that age at first marriage of males undulated, and would rise, fall, and rise again. For females, the marriage age generally increased between 1960 and 1979, fell after the 1980s, and rose again after 1985. ²³ The average age at first marriage in men was on the rise before and into the 1970s, reaching 26.35 years old in the 1970s, the highest level in history, declined in the 1980s, and increased again after the 1990s, similar to the pattern in women. ²⁴ In both urban and rural areas, the average age at first marriage has shown an upward trend since the 1990s. ²⁵ With regard to policy, since the early 1960s, many local Chinese governments began to advocate and emphasize the policy of late marriage and late childbirth; thus, that may explain the upward trend in the average age at first marriage. The new Marriage Law of China was promulgated in 1980 and reminded people that men had the right to marry at age twenty-two and women had the right at age twenty; late marriage was simply encouraged, but it led to the declines of marriage age among both men and women. ²⁶ In 1977, the college entrance exam resumed; on April 12, 1986, the Compulsory Education Law of the People’s Republic of China was carried out, and the nine-year compulsory education was put into practice. The two policies provided more opportunities for people to receive education, which resulted in an obvious increase in the education level of the Chinese people, followed by an upward trend of first marriage since the 1990s.

The aforementioned results and facts may shed light on the reasons underlying late marriage in modern China, which is similar to the reasons for late marriage in the cultural heyday of the Song Dynasty—namely, the late age at marriage correlates with the prevalence of education and the increase in education level. On one hand, the higher a person’s education level, the longer that person has spent in school, which can decrease the possibility and opportunity for marriage. Although it is against school rules and social norms to prevent a person in school from marrying, ²⁷ generally young people lack the financial resources and stable income that they may deem necessary for marriage and forming a family. ²⁸ Consequently, the marriage age has increased with education level. On the other hand, education level impacts how people perceive themselves in modern society. ²⁹ The higher one’s education level is, the higher one’s self-image and self-worth. When marriage is incompatible with attaining those personal goals and ambitions, it is likely to be delayed or postponed. ³⁰ Meanwhile, because of the traditional culture of China, the custom of pursuing higher education also causes requirements for matched education when youths and their families select partners. This is a similar phenomenon as what occurred in the Song Dynasty when fathers sought sons-in-law from the admission list, and it serves to greatly limit the freedom of men and women with regard to marriage awareness, thereby increasing the difficulty of getting married. Today, Chinese society and businesses often use education as the standard by which job seekers are selected, and high levels of education are often the requirement for employment, leading to academic comparisons. This results in heavy pressure being placed on young men and women when they are considering marriage, which leads them to delay marriage. Therefore, the current delay of age at first marriage is similar to late marriage in the cultural heyday of Song Dynasty, but the difference is that the influence of education on marriage in the present day is more complex and diverse. This is summarized in Figure 3.

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Figure 3.

The mechanism diagram about the influence of education on marriage.

Conclusions and Recommendations

In conclusion, this study suggests that there are historical clues for the current age delay at first marriage, which is similar to the late marriage that occurred in the cultural heyday of the Song Dynasty. Education and culture have an impact on the choice of marriage age, and the risk of late marriage in China increases significantly with an increase in education level.

With the development of society and the progress of civilization, the popularity of culture and improvement of education will be an inevitable trend. In this context, beyond the joy of improving population quality, we should also pay attention to the associated population and social problems. On one hand, the characteristics of population development have been changing. For example, late marriage is no longer a policy that needs to be “promoted”; rather, it is a “voluntary” trend. This has led to a decline in total fertility rates, and as such, China has entered the list of “lowest-low fertility” countries, making the potential for population development low. Therefore, under the current policy that a “second child” is not generally allowed, the age at first marriage seems to be a modifier that can be self-controlled by people. The response to late marriage may become a new strategy that the Chinese government uses to alleviate the current low fertility problem. On the other hand, the “leftover singles” problem not only places pressure on individuals and their families but also threatens social harmony and stability. ³¹ Actively coping with late marriage may also help alleviate the pressure placed on individuals, family, and society, which may also help maintain social harmony and stability.

Therefore, we make the following recommendations based on the aforementioned data regarding the relationship between education level and late marriage: First, the target population should be determined and focused on. Specifically, in the current context of late marriage, populations with higher levels of education should be the focus, and are generally concentrated in cities, universities, and enterprises.

Second, changes in traditional concepts should be promoted. For example, there should no longer be the notion that marriage and education cannot coexist in the marriageable population. In addition, in the work environment, education level should not be the sole criterion for selecting talent. Moreover, certain barriers should be removed from the workplace, such as discrimination toward women who choose to marry and have children early.

Third, the development and advocacy of policies should be improved, particularly in the higher education system. Schools should improve and promote their provisions on marriage for students, and students should be educated on how to live independently, make plans for their future, and maintain good mental health. In addition, more convenient and humane conditions for student couples should be provided, so that students can pursue a higher education while having a suitable arrangement for marriage.

Fourth, public opinion of society and the media should be corrected. Social organizations and the media should publicize and disseminate accurate views of love, mate choice, and marriage, and should provide more opportunities for finding love and marriage for men and women of appropriate ages, to help marriageable men and women enter into marriage and family as early as possible under the guidance of accurate and realistic ideals.

Fifth, health education in people of marriage age should be promoted. Marriageable young people, especially women, should be informed of the hazards and dangers of marriage and bearing children at an older age. This will have a positive effect on maternal reproductive health and will help to prevent neonatal disease.

In summary, using history as a mirror, governments should pay more attention to the phenomenon of late marriage in today’s society and actively respond to it from the perspective of education level.