Optimizing emissions targets for residential recycling programmes: Why ‘more’ is not necessarily better with respect to diversion

This study highlights the economic and environmental challenges of recycling in Ontario, specifically examining the effect of attempting to increase the emissions target for the province’s household recycling programme. The findings from the cost model analysis found that Ontario’s Blue Box programme reduces overall carbon emissions by approximately 1.8 million tonnes every year. This study also found that targeting specific materials for recovery could result in a scenario where the province could improve both overall diversion and emissions offsets while reducing material management costs. Under our modelled scenario, as the tonnes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) avoided increases, the system cost per tonne of GHG avoided initial declines. However, after avoiding 2.05 million tonnes of GHGs, the system cost/tonne GHG avoided increases. To achieve an emissions target in excess of 2.05 million tonnes, the province will have to start recycling higher cost non-core materials (composite materials, other plastics, etc.).