Cumulation in Qip: Twenty-Five Years After Ojai

Abstract

The article addresses the state of quantitative international politics research, with particular attention to the extent to which peace scientists have been able to obtain cumulative findings with regard to issues of war and peace. When accumulation is viewed from the broader perspective of the emergence of new propositions, methodologies, and the refinement of research strategies, there has been considerable progress, but when accumulation is viewed from the narrower perspective of verified substantive findings the record is less impressive. Too much of peace science has focused on single variables in attempting to explain complex and dynamic processes. Nevertheless, when the gains of the last 25 years are compared to those in more highly funded and publicized fields they are impressive. A comparison with research on coronary artery disease is presented to illustrate the point. The comparison demonstrates the limits of correlational research, the danger of reaching premature conclusions, the critical role played by replication, the meandering path of cumulative research, and the importance of communication.

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