Abstract
In coming decades, the shape and composition of American Metropolitan areas will undergo significant changes, according to Arthur C. Nelson in his book Reshaping Metropolitan Areas: Development Trends and Opportunities to 2030. The forces that have created the sprawling urban areas of twentieth-century America are in rapid decline, and they are being replaced with new economic and demographic trends that are significantly different from those of the recent past. The era of sprawling low-density suburban development is over. The author presents a detailed argument on how changing market forces will affect housing demand as well as commercial properties, and describes how planners should prepare to meet these changes.
Demand for traditional suburban housing will be falling drastically in the coming decades for several reasons. The baby boom population will be retiring and many of this group will want to downsize from their large suburban homes. However, there is no sizeable, young population to take their place. Recent generations are smaller in number, have lower fertility rates, and do not necessarily want the same housing arrangements as their parents or grandparents. Some want to live in walkable urban neighborhoods with shorter commutes. Not only are populations of potential homebuyers smaller than in the past, but they are more diverse as well. Increasing minority populations may not have the purchasing power to buy into the American Dream like the boomers did. This is a result of lower levels of education, and lower wages, as well as recent strict down payment requirements. Potential first-time buyers will have a more difficult time entering into homeownership. Commercial properties are also ripe for change. Many suburban strip malls will be ready for replacement by 2030, according to the author. These areas could be redeveloped into mixed-use developments with transit connections that could accommodate much of the anticipated changes. This book describes in detail the shifting market forces, and how planners should anticipate these changes when shaping future development.
Public and private sector data are summarized in tabular form and used to support the author’s arguments. The first chapter of the book provides the foundation for the challenges facing planners in the twenty-first century. Market forces and demographic changes are different from those in the last half of the twentieth century and have the potential to dramatically reshape the built environment of American metropolitan areas. Surveys show that Americans want smaller homes on small lots with short commutes. Walkable communities with mixed uses along “smart growth” lines are the forecasted trend. The current built environment has a sufficient number of large homes on large lots to meet anticipated demand until 2030 without any new construction of this type of residence. Most of the anticipated demand will be for housing that has access to transit. Thus, the expected location of new demand is toward the center of metropolitan areas, as infill or redevelopment of old commercial strip centers occurs. Understanding how to manage these market trends is the purpose of this book.
The author elaborates on the ramifications of some of the forces at play. Homeownership rates are expected to decline from their peak in the mid-2000s, which will result in a bigger market for rental units. As the baby boomers age and fertility rates remain low (i.e., at replacement levels), households without children will dominate future household growth. Demand for large homes will decline; therefore, their prices will decline. New residential construction can find a ready spot for development in the aging suburban commercial strips where the values of existing structures are expected to fall below the value of the land they are built upon.
While Nelson presents a convincing argument for his vision of a changing American metropolitan landscape, a couple of his assumptions are worth challenging. As far as future demand for large houses with large yards is concerned, demand may not be as low as the author suggests. Nelson argues that up to one-third of Generation Y (born 1981–1995) does not want the type of homes that their parents raised them in, preferring more densely developed areas with transit. This reflects a significant cultural shift. How this eventually plays out will be important to the reshaping of metropolitan America. If a higher proportion of Generation Y does decide to live in the style of their parents, demand will be stronger for large homes on large lots, and a critical piece leading to the momentum of change that Nelson anticipates will not be present. It follows that if demand is stronger for single-family homes in the suburbs, this could undermine the author’s predicted reshaping of metropolitan areas. Only time will tell if such a large cultural shift away from a preference for single-family-home suburban living will take place.
In the discussion of economic benefits resulting from the reshaping of metropolitan America, agglomeration takes up much of the conversation. While the author predicts economic benefits from higher commercial and residential densities on the economy, assertions such as the creation of jobs merely by increasing density across all metropolitan areas needs more support. Works cited in this section examine the existing variation of densities and economic productivity (versus the number of jobs) across the United States (Bettencourt et al. 2007), noting positive relationships between population densities and productivity (Ciccone and Hall 1996). The author suggests that by increasing residential density, the number of jobs will increase, and that position lacks support in the text. Without a clear explanation as to how increasing rates of productivity would lead to an equal increase in the rate of job creation, his predicted job growth seems optimistic. Additionally, even if an increase in density leads to an increase in the number of jobs, if all metropolitan areas increased their densities at around the same time (as suggested by the author), it seems unlikely that the benefits of this increasing density would accrue to all metropolitan areas. The discussion of beltways and jobs is also subject to similar logical concerns. Cities that currently have a beltway, or more than one beltway, are said to lose jobs simply as a result of the beltway’s presence, according to the author. This occurs as density thresholds are reduced by these roadways and populations spread out from the urban core. The resulting low density, and ensuing dearth of customers, can cause retail and service companies to relocate to other metropolitan areas, or for some jobs to not exist at all, according to Nelson. He states that “the nation’s employment base had about 3 million jobs fewer than there would be without beltways” (98).
Since most major American metropolitan areas already have at least one beltway, this would put them all on the same level of potential job loss. There would be few, if any, superior commercial environments that would attract relocation. While the author does not recommend a solution to the beltway issue, no one can reasonably expect the American highway system to be dismantled. Moving to a smaller scale of criticism, Figure 3.3 is supposed to show median household income from 1975 to 2010. Instead, it repeats the data from Figure 3.2 showing changing levels of multigenerational housing. It would have been helpful to have an inserted erratum with Figure 3.3 provided.
In conclusion, Reshaping Metropolitan Areas: Development Trends and Opportunities to 2030 is a timely work on a subject that is worthy of attention. Nelson provides a thoughtful projection of trends that will affect the shape of metropolitan areas, supported with data from a variety of public and private sources. The case is clearly made that demographics and market forces will be impacting U.S. metropolitan areas in ways that have not been previously experienced. In regard to the late twentieth-century trend of the ever-expanding single-family home development on the urban fringe, the author states that “those days are gone, never to return” (47). Nelson also discusses the changing suburban commercial market in a way that nicely integrates the discussion of demand for housing. Rapidly depreciating commercial property is ripe for redevelopment and can provide the location for the kind of mixed-use, transit-friendly developments that will meet the potential residential and commercial demands of the next several decades. If the trends play out as forecasted, Nelson provides a reasonable plan to accommodate this new metropolitan environment. Even if future trends are less robust than expected, planners certainly need to consider the information in this succinct volume—and to adjust their outlooks accordingly.