Modèle dynamique du comportement d'achat sur Internet et de l'impact de l'e-mailing par les réseaux de Petri

Abstract

Cet article introduit les réseaux de Petri pour modéliser les visites et les achats sur un site Web de liste de cadeaux. Le modèle de base est plus performant qu'un modèle NBD avec régression. Le modèle est étendu pour mesurer l'impact de l'intervalle entre deux e-mails sur les connexions et les achats.

Keywords

Internet liste de cadeaux e-mail réseaux de Petri modèle dynamique processus stochastique

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Ansari

Mela

C.F.

(2003), E-customization, Journal of Marketing Research, 40, 2, 132–145.

Bandts

(2001), Turning browsers into buyers, MIT Sloan Management Review, 42, 2, 8–9.

Bucklin

R.E.

Sismeiro

(2003), A model of Web site browsing behavior estimated on clickstream data, Journal of Marketing Research, 40, 3, 249–267.

Chittenden

Randtie

(2003), An evaluation of e-mail marketing and factors affecting response, Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing, 11, 3, 203–217.

Ehrenberg

A.S.C.

(1972), Repeat buying, Amsterdam, North-Holland.

Haas

P.J.

(2002), Stochastic Petri nets, Springer series in operations research, éds. Glynn

P. W.

Robinson

S. M.

, New York, Springer-Verlag.

Häubl

Trifts

(2000), Consumer decision making in online shopping environments: The effects of interactive decision aids, Marketing Science, 19, 1, 4–21.

Hedeker

Gibbons

(1994), A random-effects ordinal regression model for multilevel analysis, Biometrics, 50, 993–994.

Jensen

(1992), Coloured petri nets: Basic concepts, analysis methods and practical use, Basic concepts, EATS monographs on theoretical computer science, vol.1, Berlin: Springer.

10.

Johnson

E.J.

Moe

W.W.

Fader

P.S.

Bellman

Lohse

G.L.

(2004), On the depth and dynamics of online search behavior, Management Science, 50, 3, 299–308.

11.

Johnson

N.L.

Kotz

Balakrishnan

(1995), Continuous univariate distributions, vol.2, Wiley series in probability and statistics, Wiley Interscience Publication, New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

12.

Ken

Brandal

(2003), Improving email response in a permission marketing context, International Journal of Market Research, 45, 4, 489–503.

13.

Law

A.M.

Kelton

W.D.

(2000), Simulation modeling and analysis, 3e édition, Mc-Graw-Hill Series in industrial engineering and management science, Singapour, McGraw-Hill Higher Education.

14.

Lynch

J.G.

Jr. Ariely

(2000), Wine online: Search costs affect competition on price, quality, and distribution, Marketing Science, 19, 1, 83–103.

15.

Mandel

Jonhson

E.J.

(2002), When Web pages influence choice: Effects of visual primes on experts and novices, Journal of Consumer Research, 29, 2, 235–245.

16.

Meldman

J.A.

(1977), A new technique for modeling the behavior of man-machine information systems, Sloan Management Review, 18, 3, 29–47.

17.

Moe

W.W.

(2003), Buying, searching, or browsing: Differentiating between online shoppers using in-store navigational clickstream, Journal of Consumer Psychology, 13, 1&2, 29–40.

18.

Moe

W.W.

Fader

P.S.

(2004a), Capturing evolving visit behavior in clickstream data, Journal of Interactive Marketing, 18, 1, 5–19.

19.

Moe

W.W.

Fader

P.S.

(2004b), Dynamic conversion behavior at e-commerce sites, Management Science, 50, 3, 326–335.

20.

Park

Y.H.

Fader

P.S.

(2004), Modeling browsing behavior at multiple Websites, Marketing Science, 23, 3, 280–304.

21.

Pandri

C.A.

(1962), Kommunikation mit Automaten, Thèse de doctorat, Schriften des Institutes für Instrumentelle Mathematik Bonn, Allemagne.

22.

Petri Nets World (2004), http://www.daimi.au.dk/PetriNets.

23.

Raudenbush

S.W.

Bryk

A.S.

(2002), Hierarchical linear models, 2e édition, Thousand Oaks, CA, Sage Publications, Inc.

24.

Salimifard

Wright

(2001), Petri net-based modelling of workflow systems: An overview, European Journal of Operational Research, 134, 3, 664–676.

25.

Sheehan

K.B.

McMillan

S.J.

(1999), Response variation in email surveys, an exploration, Journal of Advertising Research, 39, 4, 45–54.

26.

Sismeiro

Bucklin

R.E.

(2004), Modeling purchase behavior at an e-commerce Web site: A task completion approach, Journal of Marketing Research, 41, 3, 306–323.

27.

SPNP User's Manual (1999), version 6.0. http://www.ee.duke.edu/∼kst/packdelogiciels.

28.

Telang

Boatwright

Mukhopadhyay

(2004), A mixture model for Internet search-engine visits, Journal of Marketing Research, 41, 2, 206–214.

29.

Trivedi

K.S.W.

(2002), Probability and statistics with reliability, queuing and computer science applications, New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

30.

Viswanadham

Raghavan

Srinivasa N.R.

(2000), Performance analysis and design of supply chains: A Petri net approach, Journal of Operational Research Society, 51, 10, 1158–1169.

31.

Vuong

Q.H.

(1989), Likelihood ratio tests for model selection and non nested hypotheses, Econometrica, 57, 2, 307–333.

32.

Weitz

(1998), Workflow modelling for internet-based commerce: An approach based on high level Petri nets, Lecture notes in computer science, Vol. 1402, éds. Goos

Hartmanis

van Leeuwen

, vol. éds Lamersdorf

Trends

Merz M.

, Distributed systems for electronic commerce (pp. 166–178), Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.

33.

Wolfe (Series Ed.), McGraw-Hill Series in industrial engineering and management science, 3e édition, Singapour, McGraw-Hill Higher Education.

34.

Zauberman

(2003), The intertemporal dynamics of consumer lock-in, Journal of Consumer Research, 30, 3, 405–419.