The idea that sexual offenses occur as the culmination of a chain of actions on the part of offenders is central to contemporary cognitive behavioral models of relapse prevention. However, quantitative tests of this idea have remained rare. This article presents a mathematical model of the offense chain that allows a quantitative hypothesis test and tests the model using archival records of the daily behaviors of 7 developmentally disabled sex offenders. The results lend statistical support to models of the offense chain and allow consideration of the implications of the dynamics of offender behaviors for treatment
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