Disaggregating Violence: Understanding the Decline

Abstract

Although trends of violent crime have been examined for over a century, no previous study has examined the change of subtypes of violence over time. This study therefore aims to identify subtypes of violence in Scotland, where violence levels have decreased from one of the highest in Europe to one of the lowest, based on variables relating to the victim, offender, and incident, and to examine how these subtypes have changed over time. Four main types of violence were identified using multilevel latent class analysis on Scottish Crime and Justice Survey data: public no weapon, public weapon, work-related, and domestic. The findings show that although all types of violence have demonstrated an absolute decrease over time, Domestic and work-related violence have demonstrated relative increases over time. The findings are discussed in relation to the inequality of this decrease and propose guidelines for future prevention policies.

Keywords

violence exposure domestic violence workplace violence intervention/treatment

Introduction

The changing trends in violence have been a subject of academic interest for well over a century and substantial changes in violence rates have been considered important social indicators of the functionality of social systems or the effects of major changes in society (Tonry, 2014). Changes in crime trends have more recently received particular attention during the so-called “crime drop” that has been internationally documented during the past two decades (Farrell & Brantingham, 2013). This cross-national decline marked a reversal of a previously increasing trend in violence that was prevalent since the 1950s (Tonry, 2014; Tonry & Farrington, 2005). Although recent research suggest that the crime drop is not universal (Weiss, Santos, Testa, & Kumar, 2016), there has been a major reduction in crime in most Western, industrialized countries since the early to mid-1990s, including violence (Aebi & Linde, 2010; Farrell, Tilley, Tseloni, & Mailley, 2010; LaFree, Curtis, & McDowall, 2015). Various theories and hypotheses regarding the causes of the crime drop have been proposed, such as changed crime justice policies and legislation, increased securitization and economical and societal change (Aebi & Linde, 2010; Tonry, 2014).

However, due to the focus on public crime, few of the crime drop theories explain the change in domestic violence. In fact, no previous study has attempted to examine the crime drop in the light of multiple types of violence. Recent homicide research has demonstrated the heterogeneous nature of violent crime, and due to the limitations of measuring violence as a unidimensional construct, there is an argument for examining these crimes in a disaggregated manner (Blumstein, 2000; Lehti, 2014; Messner & Savolainen, 2001; Roberts & Willits, 2015; Thompson, 2015). Not all violent crimes are the same, but vary across covariates and other variables. As previous research also has shown that different patterns than the overall trend can be revealed when violence is broken down by other variables and examined in specific detail (Chilton & Chambliss, 2015; Norris, Pillinger, & McVie, 2014), it is vital to examine how different types of violence have changed over time if the great decline in violence that has been evident across the United Kingdom and in other Western countries is to be understood. Perhaps only some types of violence have decreased over time, while others have remained stable, or even increased. Only examining the change in aggregate levels of violence over time risks obscuring hidden countertrends in data, which in turn provides an inaccurate picture of the violence decline.

This study therefore argues that violence needs to be examined in a disaggregated manner if the decline in this crime is to be understood and attempts to fill this gap in crime trends research.

Violence Typologies

Although homicide typologies are well developed within the literature (see, for instance, Chan & Heide, 2009), the same cannot be said regarding typologies of nonlethal violence. Due to the much higher number of acts of violence compared with homicide, violence typologies identified in previous research tend to be highly specialized, as can be seen with the typologies of sexual violence or domestic abuse (see, for instance, Cavanaugh & Gelles, 2005; Chambers, Horvath, & Kelly, 2010; Holtzworth-Munroe, 2000; Johnson, 2006; Messinger, Fry, Rickert, Catallozzi, & Davidson, 2014). Other violence typologies have focused only on occupational violence (Mayhew & Chappell, 2001) or nonlethal violence solely committed by young men (McMurran, Jinks, Howells, & Howard, 2009). In other words, there are typologies for very specific forms of violence but all-encompassing typologies, including more general aspects of nonlethal violence, are lacking. It has furthermore been argued that examining the aspects of violence separately does not offer a clear overall picture of the context in which the crime takes place (Beauregard & Proulx, 2002; Meier, Kennedy, & Sacco, 2001). Instead, any comprehensive analysis of crime must take all aspects of violence into account, examining variables relating to the victim, the offender, and the incident of violence simultaneously (Meier et al., 2001). In light of this research, violence in this study will be disaggregated based on these three groups of variables (see Table 1). The variables included in the current study were furthermore based on what previous research has shown to be important when examining typologies of violence (Bijleveld & Smit, 2006; Harper & Voigt, 2007; Morton, Runyan, Moracco, & Butts, 1998; Pizarro, 2008; Pridemore & Eckhardt, 2008).

Table 1.

Classifying Variables of the Violence Dataset (Base: N = 2,097).

Victim Variables (% Missing)	Offender Variables (% Missing)	Incident Variables (% Missing)
Age at the time of crime (0.0)	Age at the time of crime (18.6)	Weapon (0.0)
Gender (0.0)	Gender (18.2)	Violence used (16.3)
Employment status (14.3)	Influenced by alcohol or drugs (9.7)	Injuries sustained (14.4)
Ethnicity (0.0)	Ethnicity (18.4)	Relationship between offender and victim (18.2)
Residential status (0.9)		Motive (3.4)
		Location (2.6)
		Repeat offense (0.0)
		Time of day^a (1.5)
		Victim influence by alcohol or drugs (15.9)
		Sexual aspect of crime (16.2)

Source. Scottish Crime and Justice Survey pooled dataset.

Time of day was coded as 0 = morning/daytime and 1 = evening/nighttime.

Research Context

Although the knowledge of changing trends in subtypes of violence is universally lacking, the Scottish decline in violence is particularly relevant to examine. More than 10 years ago, Scotland gained the unenviable reputation of being “the most violent country in the developed world” (“Scotland Has Second Highest Murder Rate in Europe,” 2005; “Scotland Worst for Violence—UN,” 2005). Scotland was described as having the second highest murder rate in Western Europe, 3 times higher than the homicide rate in England and Wales, and Glasgow was described as the “murder capital of Europe” (“Scotland Has Second Highest Murder Rate in Europe,” 2005). The violence problem in Scotland is deep-rooted, dating back decades, and the issue of violence has been particularly centered around knife violence and gang violence, especially in the west part of Scotland (Carnochan, 2015; Damer, 1989; Fraser, 2015). Yet, over the past 10 years, violence has decreased dramatically in Scotland, with 2015-2016 demonstrating the lowest homicide numbers since 1976 (Scottish Government, 2016b).

Despite this, very few studies have examined the trends of violence in Scotland. Humphreys, Francis, and McVie (2014) examined different types of crime, including nonsexual violent crime, over the crime drop in Scotland and found that violent crime showed two distinct peaks in 1992 and 2003, before demonstrating a consistent and rapid decline. Norris et al. (2014) furthermore found that although the overall likelihood of being a victim of crime had decreased between 1993 and 2010-2011 in Scotland, there was an increase in inequality in victimization. It would seem that the types of people who experience the most chronic levels of crime and are at greatest risk for victimization remain at high risk and have been largely unaffected by the crime drop (Norris et al., 2014). This group of victims also experienced most assaults and threats and, additionally, saw the largest increase in risk of this type of crime over time. Consequently, it would seem that violent crime as a whole has declined in Scotland, but not equally. This inequality in victimization underlines the importance of examining the change in violence at a more detailed level. Although the overall picture of violence is one of decline, a different pattern emerges when violence is disaggregated by other variables such as the amount or the type of victimization.

Gendered Trends

The inequality of the violence decline evident in Scotland (Norris et al., 2014) opens up questions about other forms of inequality in violence trends, such as domestic violence. As mentioned, very little of the vast crime drop research has focused on the changing trends of domestic violence. This is problematic, not only as this type of violence has been considered pervasive in western societies (Tjaden & Thoennes, 2000), but also as recent research has argued that intimate partner violence has become normative among young people (Barter, 2009; Senior, Helmer & Chenhall, 2017). Such research has also shown that intimate partner violence is strongly gendered, shaped by male dominance and gendered controlling practices (Barter, 2009; Chung, 2005; Towns & Scott, 2013). Not only has such violent relationships been found to be shaped by masculine dominance (Chung, 2005), but male violence within the context of a relationship has been found to be validated on the basis of men’s greater power and authority (McCarry, 2007). Violence, in such instances, becomes part of the normative gender role for young men and the power structure that exists in such relationships prevents the partners of these men from leaving (Chung, 2005). Intimate partner violence, as gendered controlling strategies, is therefore related to structural expressions of power and power strategies (Foucault, 1977; Towns & Scott, 2013). Whether or not domestic violence is decreasing alongside other types of violence can therefore be seen not only as an expression of gender equality in a country, but also as an expression of potential structural problems relating to issues of gender, heteronormativity, and power. These issues are particularly relevant in a Scottish context, where domestic violence has been named a prioritized violence issue (Murray, 2015; Scottish Government, 2017). and where the processes of policy development and implementation have been criticized for reinforcing gendered and social hierarchies (Hearn & McKie, 2010). By failing to actively gender the representation of the problem as well as reinforcing a demarcation between the public and the private, the response to this gendered violence has been accused of being individualized and agendered, framing the problem as one of “atypical men” (Hearn & McKie, 2010, p. 149). It is therefore vital to examine whether domestic violence is decreasing in line with other types of violence, or if this type of violence is demonstrating a different pattern.

Consequently, there are several gaps in research concerning violence that have implications for policy as well as theory. Not only is the knowledge of the trends in violence lacking in Scotland, but no study has previously examined the changing trends in different types of violence over time. Violence has great implications regarding stress placed on emergency systems, the well-being of the community, and the health of the family (Harries, 1989; Harvey, Williams, & Donnelly, 2012). From a harm reduction perspective, it is therefore important to have a full understanding of the characteristics of violence and how these crimes have changed over time. Lack of such knowledge means a lacking understanding of the exact impact these crimes have on society and the people in it. Any prevention strategy aimed at reducing violence would in other words require this information, if it is going to be successful.

Furthermore, if different types of violence are changing differently over time, this might suggest that different polices and prevention strategies are required to prevent all types of violence equally. Similarly, whether or not different types of violence are changing differently has direct implications for any theory attempting to explain the drop in violent crime evident over time. This lack of research is particularly problematic in Scotland, where the level of violence has gone from one of the worst in Western Europe to one of the lowest in the last decade (Eurostat, 2017; “Scotland Has Second Highest Murder Rate in Europe,” 2005; “Scotland Worst for Violence—UN,” 2005).

There is furthermore a lack in general violence typologies, taking all violent crimes into account and examining variables relating to the victim, the offender, and the incident of violence. To fill these gaps, the aim of the current study is therefore (a) to identify subtypes of violence in Scotland based on variables relating to the victim, offender, and incident, and (b) to examine how these subtypes have changed over time.

Data and Methods

Sample

The data in the current study were gathered from the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) held by the Scottish Government.¹ The SCJS is a repeated cross-sectional self-reported victim survey administered by the Scottish Government (2016c), aimed to measure the levels of crime and victimization in Scotland. The survey includes measures of property crime and violent crime, including sexual crime, based on approximately 3,000 to 16,000² face-to-face interviews with individuals aged 16 years and older. A pooled dataset consisting of five survey sweeps (2008-2009; 2009-2010; 2010-2011; 2012-2013; and 2014-2015), constructed by the Scottish Government, was used in the current study. The sampling design for the SCJS was mostly unclustered, with clustering only occurring in rural areas to accommodate more sparsely populated areas of Scotland. Data from the SCJS are accessible from the U.K. data service³ and subject to strict disclosure control. To ensure that the dataset was representative of Scotland overall, the data were weighted to correct for the unequal probability of selection for interview caused by the sample design and for differences in the response level among groups of individuals. Overall, the sample consisted of N = 2,089 violent incidents reported by N = 1,879 victims.

Statistical Analysis

The violence data were hierarchical in structure and mostly consisted of categorical or nominal variables. Any one victim could report more than one violent crime. To take these data complexities into account, as well as examining variables relating to the victim, the offender, and the incident simultaneously, multilevel latent class analysis (MLCA) was conducted. MLCA is a probabilistic clustering technique designed to identify latent subgroups in the data, based on the response pattern of the respondents on categorical classifying variables (McCutcheon, 2002). The technique assumes that the observed heterogeneity in the data can be explained by an unobserved latent variable with a finite number of classes and considers the hierarchical structures in the data by allowing latent class intercepts to vary across between-level groups, thereby examining whether and how these between-level groups influence the latent classes on the within level (Henry & Muthén, 2010). All MLCA modeling was conducted in Mplus version 7.4.

Two model parameters were estimated: (a) individual probability (which is an estimate of every victim’s probability of appearing in each class) and (b) class probability (which is an estimate for each class’s average score on each of the observed classifying variables). Both of these parameters were used to describe the characteristics of the classes. Three statistical criteria for model fit were used alongside entropy and the substantive interpretation of the classes: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the sample size–adjusted Bayesian information criterion (ABIC; McCutcheon, 2002; Nylund, Asparouhov, & Muthén, 2007). These values were compared to determine model fit, where lower values indicate a better fitting model.

Two latent constructs were estimated in the MLCA: a within-level multinomial latent variable (types of incidents and offender variables) and a between-level multinomial latent variable (classes of victims). Three groups of classifying variables were included in the model: variables related to the victim, to the offender, and to the incident of violence (see Table 1).

The five variables relating to the victim were modeled on the between level, as these variables only varied between victims. The four offender variables and the nine incident variables, however, varied between cases and were therefore modeled on the within level. Time, divided into five dummy variables measuring the sweeps (2008-2009; 2009-2010; 2010-2011; 2012-2013; and 2014-2015), was also added as covariates on the within level.

Two measures were used to examine the absolute and relative change over time in the violence types: the mean probability of the within classes per year and the estimated number of cases per year to examine both the relative and the absolute change in violence types over time. The within classes were chosen for the violence data, as this was the level on which the covariates were introduced. Mann–Whitney U tests were subsequently conducted to compare the average probability of the types in any given year with the average probability of the same type in any other given year to determine whether the change in average probability was statistically significant.

Results

Deciding on the Model

MLCA models were run with up to four classes on the within level and three classes on the between level (see Table 2). A 4-4 model was run but did not manage to converge, even after the number of random starts had been increased by more than 400% from the first model. As demonstrated in Table 2, the 2-3 model and the 4-2 model were the models with the best fit statistics and entropy. Models that failed to replicate the best loglikelihood value were not considered. Both of the best fitting models (2-3 and 4-2) were examined in greater detail to determine which model was the most substantively meaningful. When the 2-3 violence model was compared with the 4-2 model, it was found that the within classes of the 4-2 model were more informative than the 2-3 model. The two within classes of the 2-3 model were quite similar, mostly disaggregated by the relationship variable “stranger” acting as a swamping variable, whereas the four within classes of the 4-2 model demonstrated different patterns on most classifying variables. The 2-3 model therefore seemed too simplistic in comparison with the 4-2 model. Seeing that the 4-2 model appeared more substantively meaningful overall for the current study, the 4-2 model was chosen to be the best fitting model. For sake of clarity, the within-level types will be called types and the between-level classes will be called classes.

Table 2.

Class Selection Statistics of Two-Level LCA Violence Model (Base: N = 2,097).

No. of Classes(Within-Between)	Loglikelihood Value	AIC	BIC	Percentage Change in BIC	ABIC	Entropy
1-2	−44,878.38	89,908.75	90,338.02	NA	90,096.56	1.000
2-1	−45,756.44	91,738.89	92,377.14	2.26	92,018.13	0.944
2-2	−44,207.10	88,656.20	89,339.64	−3.29	88,955.21	0.892
2-3	−43,409.58	87,077.16	87,805.78	−1.72	87,395.94	0.915
2-4	–42,858.40	85,990.81	86,764.62	–1.19	86,329.36	0.927
3-2	−47,696.49	95,748.99	96,754.38	11.51	96,188.86	0.927
3-3	−46,114.25	92,602.50	93,658.72	−3.20	93,064.60	0.939
3-4	–45,057.35	90,506.71	91,613.77	–2.18	90,991.06	0.973
4-2	−51,393.69	103,257.38	104,584.73	14.16	103,838.12	0.963
4-3	−49,015.91	98,521.82	99,905.64	−4.47	99,127.25	0.953

Source. Scottish Crime and Justice Survey pooled dataset.

Note. Models in italics failed to replicate the best loglikelihood value, even with more than 400% increase in random starts compared with the 1-2 model. Boldface values indicates best model fit. LCA = latent class analysis; AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion; ABIC = adjusted Bayesian information criterion.

Within-Level Types

In the 4-2 model, there were four types of violence based on a combination of the characteristics of the incident and the offender, and within these types, there were two classes of victims (see Table 3). The within types and between classes of the two-level model were named after the most distinguishing traits.

Table 3.

Within Types and Corresponding Between Classes of Violence (Base: N = 2,097).

Subtype	n	Percentage of Within Group	Percentage of All Cases
1. Domestic types (29.0%, n = 608)
a. Male victim	225	37.0	10.7
b. Female victim	383	63.0	18.3
2. Public no weapon types (27.8%, n = 583)
a. Male victim	459	78.7	21.9
b. Female victim	124	21.3	5.9
3. Public weapon types (24.0%, n = 503)
a. Male victim	333	66.2	15.9
b. Female victim	170	33.8	8.1
4. Work-related types (19.2%, n = 403)
a. Male victim	204	50.6	9.7
b. Female victim	199	49.4	9.5

Source. Scottish Crime and Justice Survey pooled dataset.

Domestic type

The first type was called domestic (29.0%, n = 608), and this type would indicate a type of violence occurring between intimate partners, motivated by some sort of previous history or fight between the offender and the victim, taking place inside or adjacent to the victim’s own home (see Table 4). The offenders tended to be male and between 25 and 39 years old, with almost a third of the offenders being 40 years or older, and the offenders were more than twice as likely to be under the influence of drugs and alcohol than the victim (see Table 4). Although most offenders in this type were male (70.1%), this class included the highest proportion of female offenders; almost a quarter of the cases included a female offender (see Table 4). The vast majority of the cases in the domestic type did not include any weapons.

Table 4.

Class Probabilities for Incident and Offender Variables.

Classifying Variable	Type 1Domestic608 (29.0%)	Type 2Public No Weapon583 (27.8%)	Type 3Public Weapon503 (24.0%)	Type 4Work-Related403 (19.2%)
Motive
Personal history	0.50	0.09	0.20	0.08
Theft	0.03	0.07	0.09	0.03
Influence	0.41	0.61	0.45	0.41
Mental problems	0.07	0.02	0.06	0.24
Opportunist	0.07	0.24	0.25	0.12
Target victim	0.05	0.09	0.12	0.05
Other	0.10	0.12	0.10	0.22
Violence
Grabbed	0.57	0.36	0.31	0.40
Punched	0.61	0.73	0.32	0.60
Kicked	0.22	0.19	0.20	0.23
Stabbed	0.01	0.01	0.15	0.00
Weapon	0.02	0.00	0.50	0.02
Other	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.05
Sexual	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
Time of day	0.45	0.45	0.43	0.48
Relationship
Stranger	0.14	0.64	0.42	0.40
Spoken to casually	0.08	0.09	0.11	0.09
Just known by sight	0.09	0.19	0.22	0.14
Spouse	0.36	0.00	0.09	0.00
Child	0.04	0.00	0.01	0.00
Work colleague	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.29
Relative	0.07	0.00	0.03	0.00
Friend	0.18	0.06	0.10	0.01
Other	0.04	0.02	0.05	0.06
Weapon
None	1.00	1.00	0.05	0.92
Sharp instrument	0.01	0.00	0.38	0.02
Glass or bottle	0.00	0.01	0.28	0.00
Firearm	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00
Blunt instrument	0.00	0.00	0.15	0.03
Other	0.00	0.00	0.26	0.03
Location
Inside home	0.40	0.00	0.14	0.00
Outside home	0.26	0.00	0.23	0.00
Private	0.13	0.00	0.08	0.00
Other	0.08	0.00	0.04	0.00
Workplace	0.01	0.00	0.12	1.00
Public	0.13	1.00	0.40	0.00
Injury
Bruises	0.52	0.46	0.45	0.35
Cuts	0.21	0.18	0.41	0.12
Broken bones	0.07	0.07	0.11	0.02
Head or internal	0.06	0.05	0.17	0.02
Other	0.02	0.05	0.03	0.03
Repeat victimization	0.34	0.18	0.28	0.45
Victim under influence	0.23	0.58	0.31	0.04
Offender
Male	0.71	0.84	0.79	0.73
Female	0.23	0.10	0.08	0.23
Both gender	0.06	0.07	0.13	0.04
Below 16 years	0.05	0.04	0.08	0.18
16-24 years	0.23	0.53	0.46	0.19
25-39 years	0.41	0.40	0.32	0.35
40 years and above	0.31	0.04	0.15	0.28
Ethnicity: White	0.98	0.95	0.97	0.98
Offender influence	0.63	0.88	0.78	0.49

Public no weapon type

The second type, labeled the public no weapon type (27.8%, n = 583) was a type of predominately male, young (16-24 years) offenders being under the influence of alcohol committing violence in a public setting (see Table 4). The victim and offenders were most commonly strangers and the violence was motivated by the fact that the offender was under the influence of alcohol or drugs. None of the cases in the public no weapon type involved the use of a weapon, and the injuries and violence tended to be less severe in this type. A higher percentage of both victims and offenders were under the influence of drugs and alcohol in this type compared with the other three types.

Public weapon type

The public weapon type (24.0%, n = 503) was very similar to the public no weapon type (see above) with the exception of weapon use (see Table 4). The public weapon type was characterized by a type of violence that occurred in public places under the influence of drugs or alcohol and involving some sort of weapon, most commonly a sharp instrument. The injuries sustained by the victims tended to be more serious than the other three types, which could be related to the higher frequency of weapon use in this type. The offenders were mostly male and quite young (16-24 years), and most of them were under the influence of alcohol or drugs when the crime was committed. The influence of alcohol or drugs was also the most common motive reported by the victims of these cases, followed by the fact that the crime was opportunist or occurred in the spur of the moment. The offenders and victims of these cases tended to be strangers or people who only knew each other by sight.

Work-related type

The fourth type was labeled the work-related type (19.2%, n = 403), and overall, this would indicate a type of violent incidents occurring in and around the workplace of the victim or during the course of the victims’ employment (see Table 4). Although most of the victims did not know the offender, another third of the cases included offenders who were work colleagues of the victim. The offenders tended to be slightly older (25-39 years) compared with previous types and were most commonly male (see Table 4). Most of the victims were sober, whereas the most common motive for the violence was that the offender was under the influence of drugs or alcohol, followed by mental health problems of the offender. In almost half of the cases, these crimes were part of a series of incidents against the victim, which is the highest percentage of all the four types. This type of violence could therefore indicate workplace violence occurring in at-risk workplaces of the victims, such as pubs or nightclub, or types of employment that include dealing with members of the public at night, such as police officers or people working in public transport. Although about as many of these cases occurred during the daytime as during the night, this type had the highest percentage of cases committed during the night compared with the other types. The vast majority of cases did not include any weapons.

Between-Level Classes

As mentioned, there were two between classes in the 4-2 model based on the characteristics of the victim. As can be seen in Table 5, the classes of victims were predominantly differentiated by gender.

Table 5.

Class Probabilities for Victim Variables.

Classifying Variable	Type 1Male Victim (1,121, 58.2%)	Type 2Female Victim (876, 41.8%)
Male	1.00	0.00
Employed	0.62	0.73
White	0.97	0.98
Social housing	0.32	0.46
16-24 years	0.31	0.21
25-39 years	0.32	0.38
40 years or above	0.37	0.41

Male victim class

The first victim class was labeled the male victim class (58.2%, n = 1,221), as it consisted only of male victims (see Table 5). The vast majority of the victims were White and just over three fifths were employed. The age was quite evenly distributed among the male victims, with the most common age being 40 years or above (37.1%). Almost a third of the male victims resided in social housing.

Female victim class

The second between-level class was called female victim and consisted only of female victims (see Table 5). As with the male victims, the vast majority of the female victims were White. The female victims were slightly older than the male victims, with fewer victims being aged younger than 25 years and 41.1% being aged older than 40 years. Almost three quarters of the female victims were employed and almost half resided in social housing, meaning that it was more likely for this class to reside in social housing compared with the male victims.

Absolute Change Over Time

As can be seen from Figure 1, all types of violence demonstrated an absolute decrease over time. The public no weapon type of violence more than halved between 2008-2009 and 2014-2015, and the public weapon type decreased by 70% over the same time period. This means that the public weapon type demonstrated the largest absolute decrease over time. Although both the work-related type and the domestic type both decreased, the decrease in these two crimes appeared less steep. The domestic type of violence decreased by 44% and the work-related type decreased by 47%. This means that the domestic type of violence demonstrated the smallest absolute decrease over time.

Figure 1.

Absolute change in violence types over time (Base: N = 2,097).

Although there was an absolute decrease in all types of violence, they did not decrease at equal rates, which means that the proportion of some violence types is likely to have increased over time. To examine this, the relative change of the violence subtypes was examined as well.

Relative Change Over Time

When the relative change in violence was examined, as can be seen from Figure 2 and Table 6, the relative contribution of each type of violence changed over time. One type demonstrated no change (public no weapon), two types demonstrated an increase (work-related and domestic) and one type of violence demonstrated a decrease (public weapon). Although demonstrating a slight significant decrease between 2009-2010 and 2012-2013, as well as between 2010-2011 and 2012-2013, the relative share of the public no weapon type returned to its original level in 2014-2015, only showing a 2% increase from 2008-2009. The relative proportion of the public no weapon type has arguably therefore remained stable over time in Scotland even if the type has declined in absolute terms.

Figure 2.

Relative change in violence types over time (Base: N = 2,097).

Table 6.

The p Values of Mann–Whitney U Tests of Relative Change in Violence Types Over Time (Base: N = 2,097).

Type of Violence	2008-2009 vs. 2009-2010	2008-2009 vs. 2010-2011	2008-2009 vs. 2012-2013	2008-2009 vs. 2014-2015
Domestic	0.088	(+) 0.001	(+) 0.006	(+) 0.008
Public no weapon	0.363	0.264	(−) 0.051	0.778
Public weapon	0.103	0.130	(−) 0.015	(−) 0.001
Work-related	(−) 0.021	0.196	0.526	(+) 0.026
	2009-2010 vs. 2010-2011	2009-2010 vs. 2012-2013	2009-2010 vs. 2014-2015	—
Domestic	(−) 0.016	0.236	0.273	—
Public no weapon	0.856	(−) 0.008	0.623	—
Public weapon	0.955	0.369	(−) 0.011	—
Work-related	0.431	(+) 0.011	(+) 0.001	—
	2010-2011 vs. 2012-2013	2010-2011 vs. 2014-2015	—	—
Domestic	0.347	0.409	—	—
Public no weapon	(−) 0.003	0.370	—	—
Public weapon	0.360	(−) 0.010	—	—
Work-related	0.084	(+) 0.002	—	—
	2012-2013 vs. 2014-2015	—	—	—
Domestic	0.990	—	—	—
Public no weapon	(+) 0.043	—	—	—
Public weapon	0.107	—	—	—
Work-related	0.148	—	—	—

Source. Scottish Crime and Justice Survey pooled dataset.

Note. The p values in bold indicate significance. The signs before the p values demonstrate increase (+) or decrease (−) in the trend.

The public weapon type was the only type that demonstrated a consistent relative decrease over time (see Figure 2). Although some of the changes from year to year were not significant, the relative share of this type of violence decreased by 34% in 2014-2015 compared with 2008-2009—a decrease that proved statically significant (see Table 6). This type of violence went from being the most common type of violence in 2008-2009 to being the least common type of violence in 2014-2015 (see Figure 2).

Both the domestic type and the work-related types demonstrated an increase in relative share of all violence over time (see Figure 2 and Table 6). Although the work-related type demonstrated an initial significant decrease between 2008-2009 and 2009-2010, the share of this type of violence increased by 17% in 2014-2015 compared with 2008-2009, an increase that proved statistically significant. The domestic type also demonstrated a relative increase over time. By 2014-2015, this type of violence had increased significantly by 22% compared with 2008-2009, making the domestic type the type of violence with the largest relative increase over time. As can be seen from Figure 2, both of these types had also changed their relative position in comparison with the other types over time. The domestic type was the third most common type of violence in 2008-2009, but in 2014-2015, it had become the most common type. The work-related type moved up from least common to the second least common type of violence between 2008-2009 and 2014-2015.

Discussion

Although previous research and statistics have shown that violence in Scotland is falling, and has been falling for some time, little was known about whether all types of violence were decreasing at the same rate. The findings of the current study demonstrate that there indeed are different types of violent crimes in Scotland, and that they have changed differently over time. Using the SCJS, four major types of violence were identified (public weapon, public no weapon, work-related, and domestic), representing latent patterns in the violence data, with two separate types of victims in each type (male victims and female victims). Although this might not be an exhaustive typology of all the different types of violence that might exist in Scotland, it is the first step toward identifying those types. The types identified in the current study furthermore share similarities with types identified in previous research. The public no weapon type bears some resemblance to the “violence in pursuit of non-social profit-based goals” type and the public weapon type was similar to the “violence as defence as response to a threat” type identified by McMurran et al. (2009). Similarly, the domestic type of violence has been well defined in previous research as well as in policy initiatives from the Scottish Government (2017). In addition, there is a myriad of domestic violence typologies identified in the literature to which the domestic type identified in the current research bear strong resemblance (see, for instance, Cavanaugh & Gelles, 2005; Holtzworth-Munroe, 2000; Johnson, 2006; Messinger et al., 2014). Many of these typologies, however, tend to focus on the offender or on psychological variables rather than the holistic approach taken by the current study. Similarities to the work-related type identified in the current study can be found in the types of workplace violence identified by Mayhew and Chappell (2001).

Overall, that means that previous research has identified types of violence that resemble all four major types of violence identified, underlining the validity of the violence types found here. Although other research examining types of violence tends to focus on the frequency of violence rather than the characteristics (see, for instance, Norris et al., 2014), the main focus of the current typology is the more detailed characteristics of the violent act. Due to the wide range of variables and characteristics used to identify the types of violence in the current study, the violence typology could arguably be described as more nuanced, detailed, and comprehensive compared with previous typologies of violence, contributing to the knowledge of violence typologies in Scotland as well as generally.

Although there has been an absolute decrease in all types of violence, different violence types have changed differently over time. Public violence involving weapons (the public weapon type) was significantly less common in the later years of the study while violence occurring in domestic settings mainly between current and previous intimate partners (the domestic type) as well as violence occurring in relation to the victim’s workplace (the work-related type) had become relatively more common. The public weapon type had decreased by 34% in 2014-2015 compared with 2008-2009 while the domestic type had increased by 22% in relative terms, and the work-related type had increased by 17% in relative terms over this time. This means that the most severe type of violence, with the highest proportion of serious injuries and weapon use, has shown a marked decrease compared with the other types of violence over the years. This also means that both domestic violence and violence occurring at the workplace has become more common over time compared with other types of violence.

It is also important to acknowledge that not all victims of domestic abuse are women, and not all perpetrators of this type of crime are men. Although most of the offenders in the domestic types were male, about a quarter of the offenders in this type were female. Similarly, about 40% of the victims of this type were male, although it was more common for the victims to be female. Although the new Domestic Abuse Bill (Scottish Parliament, 2017a) does not specify domestic abuse as gendered, the prevention of domestic violence is mostly covered under the Scottish Government policy strategies to prevent violence against women (Scottish Government, 2016a). As the current study indeed confirms most victims of domestic violence are women, however, a substantial number of victims were male, and it is important to acknowledge this if domestic violence is to be reduced and prevented.

Violence occurring in relation to the work environment of the victim (the work-related type) had also seen a relative increase over time. The work-related violent type constituted about a fifth of the current sample and was reported to be repeated instances of violence in almost half of these crimes. The victims of this type of violence were almost exclusively sober and the victim was as likely to be female as male, suggesting that this particular type of violence was similar across gender. About two fifths of these cases included victims who did not know their offender, which could suggest that the victims were attacked by a member of the public while at work. Studies of work-related violence more generally have suggested that changes in workplace environments involving increased risks as well as an increased propensity to report such crime have contributed to the increased awareness on this type of violence (Estrada, Nilsson, Jerre, & Wikman, 2010).

Overall, the work-related type indicates a type of violence that has not gained as much attention in policy strategies as other forms of violence in Scotland and, therefore, merits more research and examination, especially as this type of violence appears to have increased in relative terms over time. Although the work-related type of violence remains one of the less frequent types, this type still constituted about a fifth of all the violent cases reported. If this form of violence is becoming more common in Scotland, it is important that an appropriate strategy is developed to tackle this particular form of violence.

As mentioned, several theories of the crime drop, including violent crime, has been proposed, including explanations such as changed crime justice policies and legislation, increased securitization and economical and societal change (Aebi & Linde, 2010; Tonry, 2014). In Scotland, the more prominent decrease in public violence involving weapons might be related to the strong focus of crime justice policies to prevent this particular form of violence. Historically, one of Scotland’s greatest problem areas in regard to violence has been knife violence, particularly among young men, with documented gang-related violence going back to the 1920s (Davies, 2007). Strategies and interventions made by the Scottish Government such as the No Knives Better Lives (NKBL) initiative and the various projects to reduce violence launched by the Violence Reduction Unit (VRU) are aimed at reducing all forms of violence, but have had a particular focus on public and youth violence (Building Safer Communities, 2016; NKBL, 2014; VRU, 2017). As Scotland used to be known as the “most violent country in the Western world” with a reputation for having high levels of knife crime (“Scotland Has Second Highest Murder Rate in Europe,” 2005; “Scotland Worst for Violence—UN,” 2005), this focus of policy is perhaps not so surprising.

Although increased securitization as an explanation for the crime drop (Farrell, Tilley, & Tseloni, 2011) could help explain the decrease in public violence in Scotland, this theory does not explain the lacking decrease in domestic violence or in work-related violence. In fact, due to the strong focus on public violence, very few of the crime drop theories do provide an explanation for the changing trends in domestic violence. This is particularly problematic in Scotland, where domestic violence has been shown to decrease significantly slower compared with other types of violence. As demonstrated in the current study, although all violent crime is decreasing in absolute terms, domestic violence is not decreasing nearly as fast as other types of violence. This comparably slow decrease of domestic violence might indicate a cultural or structural problem, relating to discourses of gender, heteronormativity, and power. Any prevention strategy aimed to reduce this type of violence must therefore take such cultural notions into account. Although the most common age among the offenders of domestic violence in the current study was 25 to 35 years old, recent research has also argued that intimate partner violence among young people has become normative (Barter, 2009; Senior et al., 2017), meaning that interventions aimed at reducing this type of violence might need to be implemented earlier than what is currently being done. Few current interventions strategies aimed to reduce intimate partner violence among young people appear to be successful in the longer term, however (Jennings et al., 2017). Moreover, such intervention strategies have been predominantly focused on reducing perceived risks for the (mostly) female victims rather than addressing risk factors of violence perpetration (Jennings et al., 2017), which only further feeds into discourses of heteronormativity and male domination. Early prevention strategies aimed at changing these discourses where violence becomes part of the normative gender role for young men therefore needs to be implemented to ensure that domestic violence will decrease at the same rate as other types of violence.

It has been argued that the evident increase in domestic violence could be related to the increase in the reporting and recording of this crime, which previously tended to be vastly underreported (Blumstein, 2000; Tonry, 2014). However, due to the nature of the SCJS from which the violence data are gathered, it can be expected that public violence is reported more often compared with domestic violence. This, because of the sensitive nature of this crime, is exacerbated by the fact that the interviews take place in the home of the victims (Scottish Government, 2016c). The fact that the domestic type proved relatively more common in the later years than the public types of violence would suggest that the increased share of this type of violence is not due to an increase in the reporting of the crime; however, it is still important to keep in mind that a general shift in attitudes toward domestic violence is likely to affect the reporting of this crime as well.

As none of the most common crime drop theories could fully explain the change in violence trends in Scotland, perhaps a combination of cultural theories, taking intersectional factors such as gender, power, and heteronormativity into account, and crime drop theories might help explain changes in both public and private violence. In addition, any theory attempting to explain changes in violent crime over time needs to take the disaggregated nature of this crime into account. Although the aggregated measures of violence might be declining, hidden countertrends in the data might tell another story. Future theories explaining the crime drop of violent crime should therefore aim to examine subtypes of violence, if the decline is to be explained thoroughly.

This research has demonstrated the need of identifying subtypes of violence in Scotland to gain a deeper understanding of this form of crime. In a time when victimization in Scotland appear to become increasingly unequal (Norris et al., 2014), acquiring a deeper understanding of violence is more important than ever.

Conclusion

Overall, this study has found that there indeed are different types of violence in Scotland that differ from each other on various variables and that they have changed differently over time. Although some types of violence, namely, public violence involving the use of weapons, have demonstrated a significant decrease over time, domestic violence and violence in the workplace have increased in relative terms. These findings would consequently suggest that it is not only the trends in violence that have changed over time, but also the patterns and characteristics of violence. This change needs to be taken into account if all violence, and not just the most visible types of violence, are to be prevented equally.

Footnotes

Declaration of Conflicting Interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Funding

The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

ORCID iD

Sara Skott

Notes

Author Biography

Sara Skott, PhD, is a senior lecturer in criminology at Mid Sweden University. Her research is about the relationship between homicide and serious violence in Scotland, including the identification of subtypes of both homicide and serious violence. Her research also concerns the characteristics and offending pathways of sexual homicide.

References

Aebi

M. F.

Linde

(2010). Is there a crime drop in Western Europe? European Journal of Policy and Research, 16, 251-277.

Barter

(2009). In the name of love: Partner abuse and violence in teenage relationships. British Journal of Social Work, 39, 211-233.

Beauregard

Proulx

(2002). Profiles in the offending process of nonserial sexual murderers. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 46, 386-399.

Bijleveld

Smit

(2006). Homicide in the Netherlands on the structuring of homicide typologies. Homicide Studies, 10, 195-219.

Blumstein

(2000). Disaggregating the violence trends. In Blumstein

Wallman

(Eds.), The crime drop in America (pp. 13-42). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Building Safer Communities. (2016). Building safer communities programme. Available from http://www.bsc.scot/

Carnochan

(2015). Conviction: Violence, culture and a shared public service agenda. Glasgow, Scotland: Argyll Publishing.

Cavanaugh

M. M.

Gelles

R. J.

(2005). The utility of male domestic violence offender typologies new directions for research, policy and practice. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 20, 155-166.

Chambers

J. C.

Horvath

M. A. H.

Kelly

(2010). A typology of multiple-perpetrator rape. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 37, 1114-1139.

10.

Chan

H.-C.

Heide

K. M.

(2009). Sexual homicide: A synthesis of the literature. Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, 10, 31-54.

11.

Chilton

Chambliss

(2015). Urban homicide in the United States, 1980-2010: The importance of disaggregated trends. Homicide Studies, 19, 257-272.

12.

Chung

(2005). Violence, control, romance and gender equality: Young women and heterosexual relationships. Woman’s Studies International Forum, 28, 445-455.

13.

Damer

(1989). From Moorepark to “Wine Alley.” Edinburgh, Scotland: Edinburgh University Press.

14.

Davies

(2007). Glasgow’s “reign of terror”: Street gangs, racketeering and intimidation in the 1920s and 1930s. Contemporary British History, 21, 405-427.

15.

Estrada

Nilsson

Jerre

Wikman

(2010). Violence at work—The emergence of a social problem. Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, 11, 46-65.

16.

Eurostat. (2017). Intentional homicide and sexual offences by legal status and sex of the person involved—Number and rate for the relevant sex group. Retrieved from http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=crim_hom_soff&lang=en

17.

Farrell

Brantingham

P. J.

(2013). The crime drop and general social survey. Canadian Public Policy, 39, 559-580.

18.

Farrell

Tilley

Tseloni

(2011). The crime drop and the security hypothesis. Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 48, 147-175.

19.

Farrell

Tilley

Tseloni

Mailley

(2010). Explaining and sustaining the crime drop: Clarifying the role of opportunity-related theories. Crime Prevention & Community Safety, 12, 24-41.

20.

Foucault

(1977). Discipline and punish: The birth of the prison. New York, NY: Pantheon.

21.

Fraser

(2015). Urban legends: Gang identity in the post-industrial city. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

22.

Harper

D. W.

Voigt

(2007). Homicide followed by suicide an integrated theoretical perspective. Homicide Studies, 11, 295-318.

23.

Harries

K. D.

(1989). Homicide and assault: A comparative analysis of attributes in Dallas neighbourhoods 1981-1985. The Professional Geographer, 41, 29-38.

24.

Harvey

M. J.

Williams

D. J.

Donnelly

P. D.

(2012). Testing a method to develop preliminary cost estimates of homicide in Glasgow: A research note. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 24, 510-523.

25.

Hearn

McKie

(2010). Gendered and social hierarchies in problem representation and policy processes: “Domestic violence” in Finland and Scotland. Violence Against Women, 16, 136-158.

26.

Henry

K. L.

Muthén

(2010). Multilevel latent class analysis: An application of adolescent smoking typologies with individual and contextual predictors. Structural Equation Modeling, 17, 193-215.

27.

Holtzworth-Munroe

(2000). A typology of men who are violent toward their female partners: Making sense of the heterogeneity in husband violence. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 9(4), 140-143.

28.

Humphreys

Francis

McVie

(2014). Understanding the crime drop in Scotland (Research Briefing 1). Edinburgh, Scotland: AQMEN.

29.

Jennings

W. G.

Okeem

Piquero

A. R.

Sellers

C. S.

Theobald

Farrington

D. P.

(2017). Dating and intimate partner violence among young persons aged 15-30: Evidence from a systematic review. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 33, 107-125.

30.

Johnson

M. P.

(2006). Conflict and control: Gender symmetry and asymmetry in domestic violence. Violence Against Women, 12, 1003-1018.

31.

LaFree

Curtis

McDowall

(2015). How effective are your “better angels?” Assessing country-level declines in homicide since 1950. European Journal of Criminology, 12, 482-504.

32.

Lehti

(2014). Homicide drop in Finland, 1996-2012. Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, 15, 182-199.

33.

Mayhew

Chappell

(2001). Occupational violence: Types, reporting patterns and variations between health sectors. Retrieved from http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.540.5201

34.

McCarry

(2007). Masculinity studies and male violence: Critique or collusion. Women’s Studies International Forum, 30, 404-415.

35.

McClintock

F. H.

Wikström

P. O. H.

(1990). Violent crime in Scotland and Sweden. British Journal of Criminology, 30, 207-228.

36.

McCutcheon

A. L.

(2002). Basic concepts and procedures in single- and multiple-group latent class analysis. In Hagenaars

J. A.

McCutcheon

A. L.

(Eds.), Applied latent class analysis (pp. 56-88). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

37.

McMurran

Jinks

Howells

Howard

R. C.

(2009). Alcohol-related violence defined by ultimate goals: A qualitative analysis of the features of the different types of violence by intoxicated male offenders. Aggressive Behavior, 36, 67-79.

38.

Meier

R. F.

Kennedy

L. W.

Sacco

V. F.

(2001). Crime and the criminal event perspective. In Meier

R. F.

Kennedy

L. W.

Sacco

V. F.

(Eds.), The process and structure of crime: Criminal events and crime analysis (pp. 1-27). New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers.

39.

Messinger

A. M.

Fry

D. A.

Rickert

V. I.

Catallozzi

Davidson

L. L.

(2014). Extending Johnson’s intimate partner typology: Lessons from an adolescent sample. Violence Against Women, 20, 948-971.

40.

Messner

S. F.

Savolainen

(2001). Gender and the victim-offender relationship in homicide: A comparison of Finland and the United States. International Criminal Justice Review, 11, 34-57.

41.

Morton

Runyan

C. W.

Moracco

K. E.

Butts

(1998). Partner homicide-suicide involving female homicide victims: A population-based study in North Carolina, 1988-1992. Violence and Victims, 13, 91-106.

42.

Murray

(2015). Landscape review on stop and search in Scotland. Dundee: Scottish Institute for Policing Research.

43.

No Knives Better Lives. (2014). About us. Retrieved from http://noknivesbetterlives.com/info/about-us/

44.

Norris

Pillinger

McVie

(2014). Changing patterns of victimisation in Scotland, 1993-2011 (Research Briefing 2). Edinburgh, Scotland: AQMEN.

45.

Nylund

Asparouhov

Muthén

B. O.

(2007). Deciding on the number of classes in latent class analysis and growth mixture modeling: A Monte Carlo simulation study. Structural Equation Modeling, 14, 535-569.

46.

Pizarro

J. M.

(2008). Reassessing the situational covariates of homicides: Is there a need to disaggregate? Homicide Studies, 12, 323-349.

47.

Pridemore

W. A.

Eckhardt

(2008). A comparison of victim, offender, and event characteristics of alcohol- and non-alcohol-related homicides. Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency, 45, 227-255.

48.

Roberts

Willits

(2015). Income inequality and homicide in the United States: Consistency across different income inequality measures and disaggregated homicide types. Homicide Studies, 19, 28-57.

49.

Scotland has second highest murder rate in Europe. (2005, September 26). The Guardian. Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/sep/26/ukcrime.scotland

50.

Scotland worst for violence—UN. (2005, September 18). BBC News. Retrieved from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4257966.stm

51.

Scottish Government. (2016a). Equally safe: National strategy. Retrieved from http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/03/7926

52.

Scottish Government. (2016b). Recorded crime: Non-sexual crimes of violence. Edinburgh: Author.

53.

Scottish Government. (2016c). Scottish crime and justice survey 2014-15: Main findings. Edinburgh: Author.

54.

Scottish Government. (2017). Action to tackle violence against women. Retrieved from http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Justice/policies/reducing-crime/violence-against-women

55.

Scottish Parliament. (2017). Domestic abuse (Scotland) bill 2017. Edinburgh: Author.

56.

Senior

Helmer

Chenhall

(2017). ‘As long as he’s coming home to me’: Vulnerability, jealousy and violence in young people’s relationships in remote, rural and regional Australia. Health Sociology Review, 26(2), 204-218.

57.

Thompson

S. K.

(2015). The spatial distribution and social ecology of “public” and “private” homicide types in Toronto: A case for data disaggregation. Homicide Studies, 19, 149-174.

58.

Tjaden

Thoennes

(2000). Extent, nature and consequences of intimate partner violence: Findings from the National Violence Against Women Survey. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.

59.

Tonry

(2014). Why crime rates are falling throughout the Western world. Crime and Justice, 43, 1-63.

60.

Tonry

Farrington

D. P.

(2005). Punishment and crime across space and time. Crime and Justice, 33, 1-39.

61.

Towns

A. J.

Scott

(2013). “I couldn’t even dress the way I wanted.” Young women talk of “ownership” by boyfriends: An opportunity for the prevention of domestic violence? Feminism and Psychology, 23, 536-555.

62.

Violence Reduction Unit. (2017). Scottish violence reduction unit, 10 year strategic plan. Glasgow: Violence Reduction Unit Scotland.

63.

Weiss

D. B.

Santos

M. R.

Testa

Kumar

(2016). The 1990s homicide decline: A Western world or international phenomenon? A research note. Homicide Studies, 20, 321-334.