Immigrants,Crime and Prison Commitments in the Netherlands: A Time Series Analysis (1952-1988

This article reports on the results of a time series analysis of Dutch data for a 37-year time period (1952-1988) to test a macro-level model of changes in sentence severity. The model incorporates components of Green and Allen's (1981-1982) "Synthesized Societal Response Model" with the added variable of unemployment. The tested model includes the following variables: (1) severity of punishment (t) and (t-1); (2) certainty of punishment (t-1); (3) crime rate (t-1); (4) social complexity (t-1); (5) normative diversity (t-1); and (6) unemployment (t-1). Normative diversity is measured by the annual num ber of immigrants entering The Netherlands. The analysis shows that the find ings for The Netherlands are consistent with established thinking about the determinants of incarceration policies; it confirms the usefulness of incorpo rating measures of changing population composition (i.e., immigration) in macro-level analyses; and it suggests that Green and Allen's proposal for a syntheses of models of social response to deviance is a heuristically useful device.