Abstract
James Reilly attempts to answer two questions in this book: namely, does public opinion influence China’s foreign policy and can the Chinese government shape public attitudes on foreign policy? Before the 1980s, Chinese leaders did not have to pay attention to public attitudes to foreign policy. The people were only mobilized to demonstrate support for China’s position on foreign policy issues. In the last two decades, the Chinese authorities have realized that the legitimacy of the Party regime partly depends on their ability to enhance China’s international status and influence, and that rising nationalism in the country can be a double-edged sword.
Using Sino-Japanese relations from 1980 to 2010 as an example, Reilly demonstrates the populist origins of a wave of anti-Japanese public mobilization that swept across China in the early 2000s. Popular protests, emotional media reports and commentaries, and hot-headed public opinion together impeded diplomatic negotiations, interrupted economic exchanges, spurred belligerent rhetoric, and shaped public debates. The author argues that the Chinese leadership was able to respond appropriately, curtailing protests and appeasing public anger.
Based on the Reilly’s PhD thesis, the book draws on public opinion surveys, interviews with Chinese activists, quantitative analyses of the media, and internal government documents to support its findings. Reilly reveals that the Chinese leadership responded to popular demands for political participation with a sophisticated strategy of tolerance, responsiveness, persuasion, and repression, the success of which helps explain the Party regime’s stability.
The author should have been more explicit in his discussion of the implications of the understanding held by Chinese leaders that protesters could protest against Japan today, and march against the government tomorrow. The anti-Japanese student protests in 1985 were partly aimed to show support for Hu Yaobang, but possibly also hastened his downfall soon after. Portraits of Mao and appeals to take up a strong nationalist stand in the anti-Japanese protests in September 2012 implied criticism of the present leadership too.
James Reilly analyses the rise of online activism and the ‘new opinion class’; that is, netizens who are closely concerned with news and current affairs and who regularly express their opinions online. This growing activism demands serious attention from the Chinese leadership, and the author argues that ‘failing to sustain a modicum of tolerance, responsiveness, and persuasion in the face of social pressure will be as destructive to the Chinese Communist Party’s hopes for continued rule as is passive tolerance in the face of widening social protest and political dissent’ (p. 228).
The formula used by the Chinese leadership for maintaining social and political stability in the recent decade has been economic growth, basic social security, and good governance in the absence of democracy. It has no intention of abandoning the Party’s monopoly of power. This formula will probably continue to work in the near future, but whether political stability can be upheld in the long term without serious political reforms remains doubtful.
There are two aspects which have been relatively neglected in the book. Nationalism is rising in many Asian countries, including Japan. Rising nationalism in both China and Japan, which is mainly directed against each other, has prevented both governments from being more flexible in managing their disputes. In contrast to China, the decline in Japan’s relatively comprehensive national power has contributed to the rise of its nationalism, and the weakness of the fast-changing governments in Tokyo leaves no room for flexibility in the handling of Sino-Japanese disputes.
In broad terms, China still needs a peaceful international environment to concentrate on its modernization. Deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations will only drive Japan to strengthen its ties with the United States, to the detriment of China’s security interests. Hence, Chinese leaders would like to avoid a serious deterioration in the bilateral relationship.
In sum, this is an important book on the impact of public opinion on China’s formulation and execution of foreign policy. It is valuable reading for those interested in China’s foreign policy and Sino-Japanese relations.