IVLRE: A combined traffic flow prediction model based on improved VMD-LTSIN-RSTGCN-Error

Abstract

Traffic flow prediction remains a significant challenge in intelligent transportation systems. To enhance prediction accuracy, a hybrid model is proposed that integrates an improved Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), a Residual Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (RSTGCN), a Long-term Time Series Informer Network (LTSIN), and an iterative error compensation strategy. This approach effectively addresses the non-stationarity, spatial correlations, and temporal dependencies inherent in traffic data. First, the VMD is optimized using a Crested Porcupine Optimizer algorithm to decompose traffic flow time series into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), each capturing different traffic patterns. Next, these IMFs are then input into the LTSIN and RSTGCN modules. The LTSIN models long-term temporal dependencies, while the RSTGCN captures short-term temporal and spatial relationships. Residual connectivity within the RSTGCN allows the model to retain node features and aggregate information from neighboring nodes, mitigating the over-smoothing issue typically seen in graph convolutional networks. Lastly, an iterative error correction mechanism is applied, where the IMF-derived predictions are refined and reconstructed to yield the final forecast. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated by extensive experiments, including ablation experiments, baseline comparisons, and multi-step forecasting experiments. Compared to existing models such as GCN and Informer, the proposed method reduces MAE by 8.78 and 6.79, and MAPE by 6.48% and 5.52%, respectively. These results indicate that the proposed model achieves superior prediction accuracy and can be effectively applied to traffic flow prediction tasks.

Keywords

traffic flow prediction improved variational mode decomposition graph convolutional network informer iterative error compensation strategy

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