Research on a probabilistic assessment criterion of casing deformation in an incomplete borehole in deep salt formation

Drilling and completing wells through complex salt formation is technically challenging and costing. Field data demonstrates that well casings designed by traditional safety coefficient criterion occurring failure in deep salt formation though their safety factors are greater than 1. To reveal the failure mechanism, a probabilistic computational model coupled with salt formation, defective cement and worn casing is established and analyzed using Monte Carlo simulation method. On the basis of reliability theory, the results calculated by 5000 times simulations show that the traditional safety coefficient criterion has been unable to adapt to the safety assessment of well casings under salt creep conditions. To gain a sophisticated evaluation, a new assessment criterion is established and applied to assess the security of well casings under salt creep conditions. This study provides a new perspective for revealing the failure mechanism and solutions of evaluation on well casings under salt creep conditions, which may be an alternative method to study and predict the life of well casings in deep complicated formation.