Analyzing carbon neutral growth and biofuel economic impact for 2017–2025: A case study based on Spanish carriers

Aviation CO₂ emissions are growing along with traffic growth and expected technological efficiency improvements are not enough to reduce this continuous increase. International organizations are concerned and are implementing incentive rules in order to reduce them. IATA has stated a carbon neutral growth of emissions from 2020 onward within its roadmap. This paper aims to analyze suitable measures that could help to reach this target and focuses on their impact on the finances of 15 varied Spanish airlines. With these goals, an estimation model is designed in order to carry out a forecast of the 2017–2025 Spanish air market. This is comprised by three submodels: (i) the traffic model estimates the annual performance for Spanish carriers in each of their routes, (ii) the biofuel model is in charge of estimating the biofuel prices, emissions and regulations (with special attention to mandatory blending percentage), and (iii) the operating cost model estimates the carrier’s expenses structure. Data from several sources (regarding 2016 traffic statistics and forecasts of growth and fuel prices to name but two) is gathered and merged in order to feed the model. Aggregated results show that an average 3% per year increase of mandatory blending percentage should be applied for a 2020 CNG in the base scenario. Regarding the different biofuel feedstocks investigated, Camelina’s performance presents a good compromise in respect to price, emissions, and production issues. A further study on the airline’s cost structure shows that differences in the operating model (legacy, low cost, etc.) and route configurations can lead to big differences in terms of impact of biofuels introduction on the total airline costs. This could indicate that perhaps the design of distance-specific financial schemes would be desirable. In addition, high sensitivity to changes in common fuel price and traffic growth is observed.