Abstract
A former Downing Street communications chief wonders whether the Boris Johnson mood of optimism is making the country any happier
Bring me sunshine in your smile
Bring me laughter all the while
In this world where we live there should be more happiness
So much joy you can give to each brand-new bright tomorrow
With near-record-breaking temperatures on July 25, much of the country sought shade and slowed down. There was no shade in Downing Street, SW1, and the pace was frenetic. Having taken a machete to various members of Theresa May's cabinet the previous evening, the newly installed prime minister Boris Johnson was acting with brutality and efficiency to fashion a Brexit Cabinet. Scale and speed surprised seasoned Boris watchers but this was only the latest in a series of unexpected acts since May resigned and the Tory leadership race formally began.
Reflecting on them and the leadership contenders may help us to understand what will emerge from the Johnson premiership as the country rushes towards a hard deadline of October 31, when the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union. It's not a tale that inspires much confidence in the current clutch of politicians in positions of authority on either of the two main sides.
Early signs of a more disciplined Johnsonian approach to campaigning and communication had been apparent for some months. The unruly thatch shortened and tamed. Less weight. Less of his family as a divorce proceeded. Less of him too in public. The many failures of May's Withdrawal Agreement gave him time in front of camera, but much more was ceded to the European Reform Group's Rees-Mogg, Baker, Francois and Bridgen. The Daily Telegraph column also kept him in the public eye. However, it was only in the last few weeks of the May regime that it started to come into its own and the outlines of a Johnson manifesto started to emerge.
Much of the cosmetic stuff is put down to new Love Island interest Carrie Symonds, ex of Central Office. As Johnson appears recently to be reverting to the shaggy look and the weight is piling back on, she needs to crack the whip again. That'll have the civil servants in Downing Street talking.
Rather more importantly, who is at the heart of the strategic discipline? Sir Lynton Crosby and Mark Fullbrook of the CT Group have clearly played a significant role, but others such as the new Policy Unit head Munira Mirza who have worked with Johnson in the past have responded to the siren call. Johnson feels comfortable with a gang and should be regarded in much the same way as Sir Richard Branson. Branson fronts up the Virgin brand but much of it is a franchise operation one way or another. Dominic Cummings was a relatively late recruit to the team. As an agent of disruption, paradoxically he brings a great deal of discipline to the political brew.
An early indicator of the style of “new Johnson” was the emphasis on his time as London mayor. This was Boris the leader and allowed him to bask in the glow of the 2012 Olympics which, we were encouraged to believe, was entirely his own work. The other message was Johnson the gifted communicator who could delegate to able lieutenants.
For political journalists, the Johnson style was initially a little perplexing, but was quickly seen as eminently sensible and hugely frustrating. He would not engage. While other contenders were camping outside the Today programme, Johnson was behind the scenes. Of course, why waste your time jousting with John Humphrys when you could schmooze the tiny electorate? Why take the chance of putting your foot in your mouth if you don't have to?
It is a pity that others didn't take the same steps. Before the starting pistol had been fired, Matt Hancock gave a car crash interview to Emma Barnett, but still put his hat into the ring. Many wondered whether this incoherent man without a plan was the same Matt Hancock who was in charge of the National Health Service. Worryingly, the answer was “yes”. Andrea Leadsom decided to take another risk with her “dodgy” CV. A pointless exercise, as her derisory vote showed. Jesse Norman, an incredibly clever man, speculated in print about whether to add to an already crowded field. He was reduced to a vague proposition about One Nation Tories, being nice to each other and talking to the EU. It was hopeless. The veteran Mail on Sunday political writer Simon Walters has a particular theory about why Norman will never lead the country – it just isn't psychologically prepared to accept a PM called Jesse.
None of the candidates really seemed to have a viable plan and interviews frequently undermined their credibility. While Rory Stewart had novelty value, he clearly needed some serious media advice. What impression did he think he was giving when interviewed by Laura Kuenssberg? Seated in a low chair with his legs spread wide, he looked like someone who had just undergone a vasectomy. It speaks volumes for her professionalism that she didn't fall off her chair laughing. Dominic Raab did take media advice and took out “new Raab” for a spin with Sky's Sophy Ridge. “New Raab” smiled a lot. Clearly, his media adviser had not seen the notorious Gordon Brown video giving his response to the MPs expenses scandal. If you can't smile without looking seriously unhinged, don't try.
Boris Johnson was not about to perform another zipwire act for the media and only relented slightly with BBC's Mark Mardell and one or two others when goaded by Jeremy Hunt. He had to do something at the weekend to show he wasn't “frit”, to borrow a word. A print interview gave him that cover. There was no need to appear in some of the early beauty parade “leader debates”.
The one he did appear on, with a reduced field, has set back the case for leader debates significantly. The BBC devised a format so poor that no one can remember anything that was said or not answered. Who did the advance work for the candidates on staging? Ridiculous bar stools made them all appear as though they were objects in a coconut shy. Add to that insufficient time and distinctly suspect members of the public putting the questions. It was the audience at home doing the eye-rolling this time when poor Emily Maitlis tried to interject, only to be talked over and ignored. The only thing the programme made most people question was the value of the licence fee and Rory Stewart's legs.
As royal watchers will confirm in respect of Her Majesty, rationing appearances clearly works well. The more Greta Garbo-like one is, the greater the allure.
As the weaklings in the race were eliminated, alleged “dirty dealing” and vote shuffling (it's politics, what do you expect?) put paid to the Gove candidacy. In communications terms, this was a game-changing moment. Having to deal with the intellectual Gove, a key Leaver who had stuck with May's deal despite reservations, would have presented significant credibility challenges for Johnson. Gove would not have been the relatively easy challenger who emerged.
Jeremy Hunt, the “safe pair of hands” candidate, showed early surprise form. His policy platform of reducing the abortion time limit came out of the blue and happily subsided equally quickly. Hampered by a perpetually startled look, he changed his hairstyle a bit, remembered his wife's origins and made a decent fist of the campaign. Regrettably, he was first out of the box with “turbocharge”, which is rapidly becoming word of the year. He took the fight to Johnson and pressed him to do more media. Wisely, he didn't try to make much, if anything, of the Johnson/Symonds domestic row.
The jury is still out on the handling of that episode. Did iron discipline not to open the door on the personal work - or merely prolong the agony? One point in Johnson's favour is that he has never sought to play the family card in his political ascent. The cynic would counter that he had no choice, as the open goal presented would be awesome.
Telling Moments
Avoiding a “blue-on-blue bloodbath” is a pretty good excuse not to engage much, but some cannot be put off. Hence, the ITV Johnson/Hunt head-to-head in early July. This coincided with the leak of emails from the British ambassador to the United States, Sir Kim Darroch. Hunt gave full support to the embattled envoy. In perhaps one of the most spineless moments in recent political history, Johnson refused to back him. After Darroch's resignation, he was much more forthcoming about the former ambassador's sterling qualities as a great man and public servant.
Another telling moment – at least for those who study the minutiae of these things – came in the responses to the question “What quality do you most admire in your opponent?”.
For Johnson on Hunt, it was changing one's mind; for Hunt on Johnson, it was the ability to avoid answering questions. Pause on Johnson for a moment and admire the brazenness. At the famous Chequers meeting at which Theresa May unveiled her withdrawal agreement, Johnson initially described it in unflattering terms. He then rallied behind it. Soon after, and once David Davis had resigned, Johnson followed suit, saying he could not support the deal. Subsequently, he voted against the agreement twice, before voting for it. The only consistent aspect of his approach is his inconsistency.
A pretty dull set of hustings was partially offset by the interviews of the contenders with Andrew Neil. British political journalism is well served by many very able interviewers, both in broadcast and in print. Neil is one of those who stands at the pinnacle. Even he struggled to make much headway with Johnson. Such is the skill of well-trained and disciplined politicians these days that the task of getting honest answers to uncomfortable questions is like Stuart Broad trying to dispose of Steve Smith on a slow wicket. It takes time. And time is the enemy.
Take one example. Pressed on whether he should apologise for the appalling gaffe at a select committee hearing when he wrongly said that Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was training journalists, Johnson stonewalled. The Iranians (rightly) were cited as principal villains and then Johnson moved on. Neil pressed again but received similar treatment. How do the programme director and interviewer deal with that situation? With less than 30 minutes, and a bit of time-wasting, mano a mano, headbutting about who is in charge, the temptation is to move on to the next topic. For many, the failure to acknowledge that his lack of care gave the Iranians an excuse, however spurious, to make Zaghari-Ratcliffe's situation even worse is a major stain on Johnson's character.
The demands of TV especially do not always work in the viewers’ favour. The broadcasters are desperate for the interview. With desperation comes leverage from the other side in terms of timing and setting. A failure to compromise leads to no deal, even if it is in both sides’ interests to have one. Where have we heard that before?
None of this seems to have had much impact, if any, on the select electorate which propelled Johnson to his promised land. The total vote of just under 139,000 was considerably less than the supposed Conservative Party membership of about 160,000. In reality, as a born-again Leaver, the Hunt candidacy was always likely to be under the water.
Blond faith prevailed.
Johnson's immediate victory speech dispelled any idea that a new statesman-like person would emerge. If there was any lingering doubt, he confirmed his style outside No 10 by launching a blistering attack on “the doubters, the doomsters, the gloomsters…”. The order of the day was to be positive and upbeat. “The people who bet against Britain are going to lose their shirts…” One wonders if the fund manager Crispin Odey, allegedly (Financial Times, August 5) shorting many British stocks, would agree. Odey is a Johnson backer and early investor in Jacob Rees-Mogg's fund management firm, Somerset Capital Management.
There were visual style messages too. Philip Stephens of the Financial Times detected a slight Churchillian stoop as the new PM walked to the door of No 10. Was the left hand in the jacket pocket slightly reminiscent of Churchill posing with a Tommy gun? Had he been told to avoid his habit of left hand in the trouser pocket or was there something more to this pose?
Being upbeat went hand in hand with early promises to splash the cash. Announcements included the health service, social care, infrastructure, tax cuts. No doubt there is some creative accounting here and there, and there is always the allure of a £300million pledge to this and £200million handout to that. Look for timescales and bear in mind that these are relative drops in the national accounts, with public spending expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility to be £847.6billion in 2019-20.
Looking the Part
All this is a marked change of tone from the years of austerity and is assumed to be a prelude to a general election within the next few months. Katy Balls, deputy political editor at The Spectator, notes: “This is a government in campaign mode as it knows that there might not be long to go until an election. Does this mean they will use conventional platforms? During the leadership campaign, rival teams were struck by the fact that team Johnson eschewed many of the traditional platforms, including the Today programme.”
The assumption about a general election is driven by many factors. A reduced majority thanks to the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, parliamentary opposition to “no deal”, a weakened Labour Party with a diminished leader, and just the sheer difficulty of pushing any government business through. All of this will test the communications of the new administration and Conservative Central Office.
Should we expect anything new? The deputy political editor of Sky News, Sam Coates: “More than any prime minister since Tony Blair, he is showing he (Johnson) understands how strong visuals - visits to museums, firms and flood zones in his first 10 days as PM - often play to his advantage.” There is a counterbalance. Coates also notes: “While he likes the TV camera, his early days suggest he is more cautious about the microphone.”
It is, as he says, early days.
There are some points that we can take from the leadership race and the first few days of the new administration. Johnson has acted decisively in many ways. He has a team that looks as though it can deliver things. If times were “normal”, he would seem to be a PM with grip. The central conundrum of Brexit remains. What is the plan? The answer cannot be both the “million to one” or “vanishingly small” chance of no deal at the same time as being the central planning assumption of Gove (and indeed the EU). Whatever happened to Bernard Ingham's common hymn sheet? We do know that if there is to be no deal, it will be the fault of the EU, a line Raab has been peddling for some time now.
There are incredible communications challenges ahead. How does the government produce “no deal” planning notes for householders that are helpful but do not scare them to death?
How does the great communicator conduct himself? An assumption would be photo opportunities, cash announcements and carefully controlled doorsteps where a statement is delivered and questions pretty much ignored. Articles will also abound, as will impromptu stump speeches, no questions taken. No one should anticipate a long interview with LBC's Eddie Mair or anyone else any time soon. Camera-happy, microphone-shy.
Summer 2019 has been marked by extreme temperatures. The political temperature looks set to continue to rise. Will there be a general election in the next few weeks? Will Johnson triumph or be a footnote in history?
As the great leader columns of the past used to conclude: “Time alone will tell.”
