Abstract
It is predicted that future climate change will have a significant impact on the distribution of large ungulates on a continental scale. At the same time, changes in human land use on a more local scale may affect their distribution and dispersal abilities, possibly confounding the effects of climate. We analyze changes in the Holocene distribution and relative abundance of Alces alces (moose) and Cervus elaphus (red deer) skeletal remains along an overlapping range boundary of these species in western Norway. As moose and red deer are adapted to different climatic conditions we would expect the distribution of finds to reflect large-scale changes in climate. In accordance with this prediction our results indicate that red deer became the predominant ungulate in this area during the mid-Holocene warm period, c. 8000–4000 cal. BP. Contrary to this, remains of moose became even less abundant in the subsequent colder period to the present. This decrease seems tied to the spread of agriculture and deforestation, indicating the importance of considering changes in land use when predicting future changes in ungulate distribution.
Introduction
Climate is one of the main factors influencing the latitudinal and altitudinal distribution of species (Graham, 1986; Hofreiter and Stewart, 2009; Webb and Bartlein, 1992). Predicted changes in climate are likely to result in profound shifts in the ranges of species in the future (e.g. Root et al., 2003; Walther et al., 2002). At the edge of its range a species is by definition living in a marginal habitat and thus environmental variations are expected to have the most pronounced effects on populations at the range edges (Haldane, 1956; Williams et al., 2003). Studying ecological responses to environmental change at range edges has been identified as a key for understanding the future of populations (Sexton et al., 2009).
Southern Norway is currently a border zone between the distribution of moose (Alces alces) and red deer (Cervus elaphus). The historical distribution of the red deer in Norway has been along the milder west coast while moose have been mainly associated with the more continental eastern inland, with the species being separated by the Scandes mountain range (Collett, 1912). Although there is some range overlap, moose and red deer can be considered as allopatric species on a global scale (Ahlén, 1965; Mitchell-Jones et al., 1999), indicating that they are adapted to different climatic conditions. Moose have a body construction well suited for movement in deep snow (Formozov, 1946; Telfer and Kelsall, 1979) and are able to withstand periods of extreme cold, but are easily stressed by high temperatures (Lenarz et al., 2009; Markgren, 1966; Renecker and Hudson, 1986; van Beest et al., 2012). Red deer, on the other hand, although highly adaptable, are not as tolerant of cold (Semiadi et al., 1996; Simpson et al., 1978) or snowy conditions (Ahlén, 1965; Formozov, 1946). They are also more dependent on grazing on ground vegetation, and have problems feeding if the ground is frozen or covered by deep snow (Ahlén, 1965; Mysterud et al., 2001). Thus, changes in the relative abundance of these two species could be expected to directly or indirectly reflect climatic conditions.
As a consequence of changes in human land use and wildlife management practices many wild European ungulates, including moose and red deer, have been increasing in numbers and distribution following dramatic population declines during recent centuries (Linnell and Zachos, 2011). Through high hunting pressure, game management, translocation of animals and habitat alterations human activities have grown to become a dominant factor in the environment of wild ungulates (Linnell and Zachos, 2011; Mysterud, 2010), and may have become more important than climate in structuring their distribution and abundance. The Holocene record of moose (Schmölcke and Zachos, 2005) and red deer (Sommer et al., 2008) in central Europe show that their prehistoric distributions were more sympatric than today, highlighting both climate and humans as potential factors in structuring their ranges.
Here we expand upon this by investigating changes in the distribution of moose and red deer along a range boundary for these species in a long-term perspective. This is done by reviewing the distribution of subfossil bone finds from the Holocene (the last 11,500 years) in western Norway, and a more in-depth study of changes in the relative abundance of moose to red deer at the archaeological rock shelter site Skipshelleren for which the bone record is particularly rich. During the Holocene there have been considerable climatic fluctuations (Nesje, 2009), and our hypothesis is that these would have affected the relative distributions of moose and red deer. If so, we predict that moose bones would be relatively less abundant in archaeological sites dated to warmer periods of the Holocene and more abundant during the cooler periods. Human land use may, however, have influenced these changes, and the results are discussed in light of current knowledge on the development of late-Holocene agricultural activity and deforestation.
Study area
The Scandes mountain range makes a natural barrier of alpine tundra between eastern and western Norway, in many parts reaching out to the coast creating long and narrow fjords with steep hillsides (Figure 1). Seaside areas and fjords are mild and wet for most of the year, with temperatures rarely falling below 0°C, and low elevations usually receive very little snow. Higher areas have more pronounced climatic fluctuations with longer and more snow-rich winters. Presently, overall precipitation decreases eastwards, varying between more than 3500 to less than 400 mm/yr (Moen, 1999), but snow cover increases and may reach considerable depth (> 2 m) in some areas during winter (October–April). Average annual temperatures range from about 8°C on the western coast to −6°C in mountainous areas (Moen, 1999). Broadleaf forests cover parts of the coast, but the outer coast is characterized by treeless coastal heathlands (Moen, 1999). Further inland mixed coniferous and deciduous forests change to more boreal vegetation.

The Holocene distribution of moose (triangles) and red deer (circles) skeletal remains in western Norway and adjacent mountain areas by time periods. Sites with remains of both species are marked by stars. Site numbers correspond with Table 1. Location of the study area is indicated in panel (d) along with topographic information.
The rock shelter Skipshelleren (site 19 in Figure 1) is a prehistoric human dwelling site containing one of the largest and best stratified subfossil faunal collections in Norway. The site is situated at the ecotone between boreal (coniferous) forest and temperate (broadleaved) woodland. Skipshelleren is situated in a fjord/river valley leading about 35 km inland to Voss, which presently has a small but stable moose population (with an average of approximately five moose shot per year for the last 10 years compared with approximately 300 shot red deer). Only a few straying moose are at times observed near the site, but the area supports a large population of red deer (Overvoll and Wiers, 2004).
Material and methods
Distribution analysis
Files from the collection archive of the Osteology collections at the University Museum of Bergen, published papers and publicly available archaeological reports and theses that report subfossil remains of moose and red deer in western Norway and adjacent mountain regions were reviewed. Those sites found to be securely dated, either by 14C or typology, were used in the analysis (Figure 1, Table 1). Bone or antler tools were excluded as these may be more prone to long distance transport. Additional 14C dating by accelerator mass spectrometry was performed on two sites,Skipshelleren and Vistehulen, to clarify the stratigraphy of the sites, as well as material from the previously unpublished site Tjuvanotten (Table 2). Based on 14C results and stratigraphic information the sites were separated into time periods given in calibrated calendar years before present (cal. BP): early Holocene (> 8000 cal. BP), mid Holocene (c. 8000–4000 cal. BP) and late Holocene (c. 4000–1000 cal. BP). The three time periods were tentatively chosen on the basis of three defined main climatic periods during the Holocene (e.g. Bjune et al., 2005). The 14C dates were calibrated using CALIB 6.1.1 (Stuiver and Reimer, 1993), based on the data set IntCal09 (Reimer et al., 2009), with 2σ ranges.
List of sites used in the study with references to their dating. Site numbers correspond to sites listed in Figure 1.
Notes: aA (>8000 cal. BP), B (8000–4000 cal. BP), C (4000–1000 cal. BP).
DB (14C dated bone), DS (14C dated site or layer), TY (typologically dated site).
Overview of new and published radiocarbon dates from specific layers at Skipshelleren and the new dates from Vistehulen and Tjuvanotten. Calibrated calendar ages are given with 2⊠ ranges.
Notes: 1: Olsen (1976); 2: Hjelle et al. (2006).
Relative abundance in Skipshelleren
Skipshelleren was excavated in 1930–1931 and separated into seven distinctive stratigraphic layers (Bøe, 1934). Seven 14C dates were already available prior to this study (Hjelle et al., 2006; Olsen, 1976), and our new 14C dates (see above) ensured at least two dates from each layer. These dates show that layer 1 and 2 cannot be differentiated in time and we consider them as a single unit for this analysis.
The skeletal material from Skipshelleren are highly fragmented, but well preserved, and 23 species of mammals as well as numerous fish and bird species have been identified (Olsen, 1976). The bone material was later revised and the analysis is based on this revision. The site contains 5962 skeletal fragments (including bones, teeth and antler) of moose and red deer that can be traced to specific layers based on excavation reports. The total number of identified specimens (NISP) and the relative abundance of moose to red deer NISP in each layer were calculated (Table 3). The change in relative abundance through time was tested for significant difference using chi-square analysis for linear trend (χt2), as advocated by Cannon (2001). We also performed chi-square tests (χ2) of the relative abundance between adjacent layers.
Numbers of identified specimens (NISP) of moose and red deer by stratigraphic layer at Skipshelleren, with approximate layer ages.
The general morphological similarity between moose and red deer leads us to expect no significant differences in fragmentation or preservation rates. Different butchering and transportation practices may, however, alter the composition of body parts found at the site (e.g. Grayson, 1989; Lyman, 1985), which can affect a NISP-based analysis (Grayson and Delpech, 1998). Hunters may, for example, have discarded more of the larger moose bones at the kill site rather than bringing them home, thereby making moose under-represented at the site, e.g. the Schlepp effect (Perkins and Daly, 1968). This was investigated by grouping specimens into eight different body part groups; phalanges, metapodials, carpals/tarsals, radius/ulna, tibia, proximal limb bones (humerus, femur and scapula), trunk (ribs, sternum and vertebra) and head (antlers, skull and teeth); and performing a chi-square test for significant differences in the body part representation of the species. We also performed a temporal analysis of the relative occurrence of different body parts by pooling the red deer material into two broad time periods, late Holocene (layers 1–3) and mid Holocene (layers 4–7). These pooled layers also include skeletal material from more unspecific layers that can only be traced to a wider time period, thereby increasing the sample size to 7984 fragments.
Results
Spatio-temporal pattern of moose and red deer finds
While red deer is clearly the predominant ungulate species when considering subfossil skeletal remains in western Norway, there seem to have been changes in the relative abundance of moose and red deer through time (Figure 1).
Only three sites have so far been found west of the Scandes mountain range with identified remains of moose and red deer older than 8000 cal. BP (Figure 1a): Sævarhelleren (site 25), Vistehulen (site 27) and Kotedalen (site 9). Sævarhelleren, dated c. 9000–7800 cal. BP, is a newly excavated site and is not yet fully analyzed. However, preliminary results show that moose remains are more abundant than red deer at this site (Bergsvik and Hufthammer, 2009). Moose remains are also much more abundant than red deer in Vistehulen, dated c. 9000–5000 cal. BP, with NISP = 85 and 17, respectively (Degerbøl, 1951). The new 14C dates (Table 2) show some uncertainties in the stratigraphy at Vistehulen, possibly indicating some degree of mixing of layers, and thus we do not know with certainty how the relative abundance changes with time. Moose bones were, however, mostly found in the deeper layers and those of red deer in the upper, and the presumably oldest bone of red deer from this site has been dated to 7569 ± 109 cal. BP. The skeletal material from Kotedalen, dated c. 8500–4700 cal. BP, is heavily fragmented and mostly burned (Hufthammer, 1992a). Red deer are more abundant than moose at this site, but only 11 fragments have been identified to either of the species from the early-Holocene layers.
Several sites are available from the mid Holocene (Figure 1b), showing a predominance of red deer remains both among and within sites. Olsteinhelleren (site 12), dated c. 7600–6800 cal. BP, lies just a few metres from the older site Sævarhelleren (see above). However, the skeletal material indicates that red deer had now become more frequent than moose in the area (Bergsvik and Hufthammer, 2009). Red deer remains become even more predominant among late-Holocene sites (Figure 1c), where Skipshelleren (site 19) and Tjuvanotten (site 26) are the only sites with reliable evidence of the presence of moose in southwestern Norway in this period. Tjuvanotten has not yet been excavated but bones of both moose and red deer have been found on the cave floor, dating to 1500–1400 cal. BP (Table 2). The site is situated close to the Scandes Mountains and lies in a valley leading northwest to Skipshelleren, indicating that the source populations for these animals might have been the same. Bone finds from the early and mid Holocene in northwestern Norway are generally very scarce, making the distribution in this area uncertain before the late Holocene. These sites show a continuous distribution of red deer along the coast and the presence of moose closer to central Norway, which presently represents one its core areas.
Changes in the relative abundance of moose to red deer in Skipshelleren
The general picture from the Skipshelleren bone assemblage, dated to c. 7500–1800 cal. BP (Figure 2), corresponds well with the spatiotemporal distribution of finds (Figure 1). Moose remains are present in all layers but in small numbers compared with red deer, with a maximum of about 6.5% of cervid bones in the oldest layer. There is a significant decline in the relative abundance of moose to red deer over time (χt2 = 36.21, P<0.001). Only two adjacent layers, 3 and 4 (χ2=7.18, P<0.01), and the combined layers 1–3 and 4–7 (χ2=57.02, P<0.01) differ significantly from each other, showing that moose bones became rarer at the site in the late Holocene.

The changing relative abundance of moose to red deer skeletal material in Skipshelleren. The graph shows precentage of moose specimens, according to stratigraphic layer and climate regime. Approximate age of layer boundaries are shown in calendar years before present (cal. BP).
Both species are represented by bones from all parts of the body and in similar frequencies for most parts (Figure 3a). Moose remains are, however, more dominated by phalanges than red deer, causing a significant difference in the body part representation between the species (χ2=126.08, P<0.001). This could indicate an under-representation of moose in the material, suggesting that more bones of moose were discarded before reaching the site. There is also a significant change in body part representation of red deer between the combined layers 1–3 and 4–7 (χ2=142.50, P<0.001), caused by a change in the number of phalanges, but the overall distribution is very similar (Figure 3b). The feet of ungulates are often brought back to the dwelling as they contain strong tendons that are valuable raw material and phalanges often remain attached to the skin of butchered animals (Klein, 1989; Perkins and Daly, 1968). Alternatively the site could have been used as a butchering site, where bones from the meatier parts of the body have been transported away. Repeating the analysis using only phalanges produces the same pattern of change between layers as in Figure 2. However, the relative abundance of moose in the mid-Holocene layers increase to an average of 8%, creating a larger difference between the mid and late Holocene. Thus the drop in relative abundance of moose in the late Holocene does not seem to be caused by different body part representation.

Body part representation at Skipshelleren based on the full data set. (a) Moose (triangles) and red deer (circles) skeletal material. (b) Red deer skeletal material at different time periods: mid Holocene (filled circles) and late Holocene (open circles).
Discussion
Climatic reconstructions from western Norway show that the early Holocene was relatively cool and dry followed by a warm and wet mid Holocene, about 8000–4000 cal. BP, with summer temperatures up to 2°C higher and winter precipitation up to 225% of today (Bjune et al., 2005). Winter temperatures were also higher and the climate seems to have become more oceanic in the mid Holocene (Giesecke et al., 2008). By the end of the mid Holocene the climate of western Norway started getting colder again and the period from about 4000 cal. BP is characterized as cooler and drier than the previous period (Bjune et al., 2005).
The oldest postglacial remains of moose on the Scandinavian Peninsula have been dated to about 13,200 cal. BP (Aaris-Sørensen, 2009) while red deer were present from at least 10,600 cal. BP (Liljegren and Ekström, 1996), both from Scania in southern Sweden. Not surprisingly the first traces of these species in Norway are in southeastern Norway, not far from the Swedish border (Hufthammer, 2006). The oldest directly dated remains of moose and red deer are bog finds of shed antlers. These confirm the presence of moose in Norway from around 10,300 cal. BP (Grøndahl et al., 2010) whilst a red deer antler, from Viul in Ringerike, has been dated to c. 8500 cal. BP (Ø Wiig, UiO Natural History Museum, personal communication, 2009).
Our finds from western Norway (see results and Figure 1) indicate that moose were more abundant than red deer in the early Holocene and a more rapid postglacial colonizer. However, the higher abundance of moose bones does not necessarily indicate that moose was a common animal in western Norway, as all of these sites are highly dominated by wild boar (Sus scrofa) (Rosvold et al., 2010). The high abundance of a temperate species such as the wild boar indicates that conditions should have been good for red deer as well. The reason for this apparently slower colonization by red deer is uncertain and the material is too scarce to provide a good explanation. It could be argued that this might in part be an effect of different dispersal behaviour, as female moose are more prone to natal dispersal than female red deer (Liberg and Wahlström, 1995; Loe et al., 2009). However, the capacity for rapid dispersal of red deer has been shown by its expansion to large parts of the country during the last century (Langvatn, 1998).
The absence of moose bones among the many sites containing red deer indicates a low density of moose in western Norway from the mid Holocene onwards. Moose were still found in western Norway but, as illustrated by layers 4–7 in Skipshelleren(Figure 2), in low numbers relative to red deer. The takeover of red deer as the dominating ungulate along the west coast in the warmer mid Holocene is therefore in agreement with the hypothesis based on climatic adaptations. This warm climate also led to the broadleaved forests reaching their maximum density in western Norway (Moe et al., 1996), indicating that this type of vegetation may have been important for the establishment of red deer. One would, however, expect moose to have become relatively more abundant in western Norway during the colder late Holocene, but this is apparently not the case (Figure 1c, Figure 2).
Farming and domestic animal husbandry were introduced to Norway about 6000 cal. BP, but was, at least in western Norway, not firmly established before the Late Neolithic c. 4500–4000 cal. BP (Hjelle et al., 2006; Høgestøl and Prøsch-Danielsen, 2006). This coincides with the reduction in the relative abundance of moose to red deer at Skipshelleren (Figure 2) and the otherwise lack of moose bones in western Norway (Figure 1c). As these bones are the remains of human hunting activities, one cannot dismiss the idea that this decrease is a result of changes in hunting habits caused by a more sedentary way of life. However, hunting has continued to be an important part of the Norwegian economy up to modern times and the high species richness in the deposits at Skipshelleren shows a continued hunting economy in addition to animal husbandry (Olsen, 1976).
Pollen diagrams show deforestation and opening of the landscape following agriculture and the colder climate of the late Holocene (Bjune, 2005; Hjelle et al., 2006, 2010; Høgestøl and Prøsch-Danielsen, 2006; Kaland, 1986). This started earlier and was most pronounced at the outer coast, with the development of the coastal heathlands, but was also obvious further inland. Western Norway remained largely forested but mostly on the steeper hillsides less favorable to agriculture (Hjelle et al., 2006) and the most productive soils were the first to be cultivated (Hjelle et al., 2010; Overland and Hjelle, 2009). Red deer easily make use of steep hillsides and readily adapt to more open terrain (e.g. Clutton-Brock et al., 1982), while the more heavily built moose may have been less able to make use of the remaining forest cover. Early animal husbandry could also have been positive for red deer as areas were improved for grazing and a certain degree of cattle grazing has been found to facilitate feeding opportunities for red deer (Gordon, 1988; Kuiters et al., 2005). An analysis of ancient DNA from western Norwegian red deer support this, indicating a large population size around 2000 cal. BP with a high genetic diversity (Rosvold et al., 2012). Continuous livestock grazing does, however, prevent the growth of browse (Austrheim et al., 2011; Speed et al., 2010), and has been found to limit food availability for moose (Wolfe, 1974).
During the early and mid Holocene the treeline altitudes were higher than today and forest covered much of the present-day alpine tundra regions such as Hardangervidda (Aas and Faarlund, 1988; Bjune, 2005; Moe, 1979). This would have linked forested habitats on either side of the Scandes Mountains, providing an east–west migration route, and there are indeed traces of moose at Hardangervidda (i.e. sites 5 and 14 in Figure 1). Owing to the isostatic uplift, colder climate and increased human impact through domestic livestock grazing, the treeline started decreasing around 4000–5000 years ago, leaving previously forested mountain areas open (Bjune, 2005; Eide et al., 2006; Gunnarsdóttir,1996). These areas were, until the beginning of the
The transformation from a forested landscape to a more open cultural landscape also coincided with the loss of wild boar in Norway (Rosvold and Andersen, 2008). Red deer seem to have tackled these changes better. Forest clearance accelerated over the last two millennia as the human population expanded and society advanced (Myhre, 2004; Rolstad et al., 2001). At this time genetic analyses indicate that red deer also suffered a decrease in numbers (Rosvold et al., 2012), leading to restricted and fragmented populations, a trend persisting until the end of the 19th century (Collett, 1909). As a consequence of modern forestry practices and falling numbers of livestock, woodlands are expanding and the treelines are rising again (Aas and Faarlund, 1995; Hofgaard, 1997; Speed et al., 2010). Strict management of hunting practices have allowed the populations of both moose and red deer to increase considerably during the last decades (Austrheim et al., 2011). Following this, red deer have spread into eastern Norway and moose are again observed in the inner parts of the western Norwegian fjords. It is also worth noting that roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), which seem to have had a very limited occurrence in Norway during prehistory (Hufthammer, 1992b; Hufthammer and Aaris-Sørensen, 1998), have spread to most of Scandinavia during this last century (Andersen et al., 2004).
Historic records and subfossil finds from other parts of Europe show that the distribution of both moose and red deer has changed a lot during the Holocene. While red deer have relatively rapidly expanded their range across most of Europe after the last glacial maximum (Sommer et al., 2008), the distribution of moose has gradually retreated northwards (Schmölcke and Zachos, 2005). Interspecific competition between moose and red deer is not considered to be particularly important (Ahlén, 1965; Mysterud, 2000), however, few studies have investigated these species living in the same area. We would not exclude competition as a contributing factor, but climatic change and habitat alterations because of expanding agriculture seem to be more likely candidates. Much of the present distribution of wild ungulates in Europe was established after the Middle Ages when high hunting pressure and habitat alterations extirpated many populations (Linnell and Zachos, 2011; Schmölcke and Zachos, 2005). It is therefore likely that much of what we consider climatic boundaries for the distribution of many species are rather an effect of several different historic processes.
Conclusions
The European landscape has a long history of human modifications and exploitation. Even so, the European fauna has retained a distinct biogeographical distribution of species indicating that climate is still one of the main controlling factors (Heikinheimo et al., 2007; Rueda et al., 2010). Direct or indirect effects of future climatic warming are expected to alter the distribution of wild ungulates, increasing the range of temperate species and limiting the distribution of northern species (Mysterud and Sæther, 2011). Our results from western Norway show that the transformation from a forested landscape to a more open cultural landscape produced changes in the ungulate fauna contrary to expectations based solely on climate change. This highlights the importance of also considering changes in land use and forest structure when predicting future responses of fauna to climate change.
Footnotes
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Astrid B Lorentzen for aid in producing the maps, Øystein Wiig and Lars Groseth for information regarding two of the sites, and to Arne B Johansen for valuable comments and discussion.
Funding
Funds for the project were provided by the Directorate for Nature Management.
