Estonia's success in averting a potential conflict over its Russian-speaking minority is often attributed to the intervention of the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities. Indeed, the Estonian case is one of the most satisfactory encounters in the period of Max van der Stoel's impressive diplomatic engagement. However, deeper, structural factors were also important over the longer term. In particular, the voting system that Estonia adopted, based on the single transferable vote system of proportional representation, turned out to be important in encouraging political moderation. This article argues that a decisive factor in ethnic accommodation was the way the political system channelled the activities of the Russian-speaking groups into Estonian parties. Other contributory factors were the weakness of ethnic identity among the Russian-speakers and international constraints on Russian foreign policy. This analysis highlights the crucial role of domestic institutions in conflict prevention.
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References
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* Sergey Khrychikov is completing a PhD dissertation at Lancaster University entitled `Conflict Prevention in Estonia and Ukraine: An Institutionalist Approach'. Hugh Miall is a Reader in Peace and Conflict Research at Lancaster University and Director of the Richardson Institute for Peace and Conflict Research. The publication of the article was supported by the Berghof Foundation for Conflict Research, Berlin, as part of Security Dialogue's series on `Resolving Modern Conflicts'.
2.
Hugh Miall , Oliver Ramsbotham & Tom Woodhouse, Contemporary Conflict Resolution (Cambridge: Polity, 1999).
3.
Hanne-Margret Birckenbach , `Half Full or Half Empty? The OSCE Mission to Estonia and its Balance Sheet 1993-99', ECMI Working Paper No. 6 (Flensburg: ECMI, February2000).
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3 Walter A. Kemp, ed., Quiet Diplomacy in Action: The OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities (The Hague: Kluwer, 2001), pp. 141-152.
5.
David Laitin , Identity in Formation: The Russian-Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca, NY & London: Cornell University Press, 1998).
6.
John Ishiyama & Marijke Breuning, Ethnopolitics in the New Europe (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998).
7.
6 See `Law on Citizenship 1938' (including amendments made on 11 December 1939) and `Republic of Estonia Supreme Council Resolution on the Application of the Law on Citizenship', 26 February 1992.
8.
7 `Draft Law on Aliens Rouses Strong Opposition', Baltic Independent, 18-24 June 1993.
9.
8 Rossiiskaya Gazeta, 25 June 1993, quoted in Ann Sheehy, `The Estonian Law on Aliens', RFE/RL Research Report, vol. 2, no. 38, 24 September 1993, p. 9.
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9 `Moscow Threatens Sanctions, Intervention', Baltic Independent, 2-8 July 1993.
11.
10 OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities, Letter to the Foreign Minister of Estonia Trivimi Velliste, 1 July 1993; available online at http://www.osce.org/hcnm/documents/recommendations/estonia/1993/03c1923.html.
12.
11 CSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities, Letter to the Foreign Minister of Estonia Trivimi Velliste, 6 April 1993; available online at http://www.osce.org/hcnm/documents/recommendations/lithuania/1993/02c1243.html.
13.
12 Official data from the Estonian Citizenship and Migration Board; available online at http://www.mig.ee/eng_index.html.
14.
13 See `Language Act', 21 February 1995 (with amendments made on 15 December 1998 and 9 February 1999).
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14 See Alexey Semyonov, Estonia: Nation-Building and Integration: Political and Legal Aspects, COPRI Working Paper, no. 8, 2000 (Copenhagen: COPRI, 2000).
16.
15 By then, Russian-speakers were expected to be able to pursue their studies in integrated Estonian universities, which do have Russian as the language of tuition for some studies.
17.
Erik Anderson , An Ethnic Perspective on Economic Reform: The Case of Estonia (Aldershot: Ashgate, 1999).
18.
17 Raivo Vetik, Cultural and Social Make-up of Estonia, unpublished manuscript, Estonian Institute for International and Social Studies, Tallinn Pedagogical University, 2001.
19.
18 For example, the Estonian government's decision in October 1993 to allow non-citizens to vote in local elections, which had not been demanded by international organizations, was a moderate step that benefited all parties.
20.
19 Graham Smith & Andrew Wilson, `Rethinking Russia's Post-Soviet Diaspora: The Potential for Political Mobilisation in Eastern Ukraine and North-East Estonia', Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 49, no. 5, July 1997, pp. 845-864.
21.
20 Of the non-Estonians, 33% were born in Soviet Estonia, 7% were born in Estonia or descended from non-Estonians born in Estonia before the war, 30% were from remote areas of Central Russia and Siberia, 20% were immigrants from neighbouring areas (Leningrad, Pskov, Ivangorod, Tver, Latvia and Lithuania), 10% were from Ukraine, Belarus, Central Asia and the Transcaucasus; Aksel Kirch & Marika Kirch, `Search for Security in Estonia: New Identity Architecture', Security Dialogue, vol. 26, no. 4, December 1995, pp. 439-448.
22.
21 Neil Melvin, Forging the New Russian Nation: Russian Foreign Policy and the Russian-Speaking Communities of the Former USSR, RIIA Discussion Paper 50 (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1994).
23.
22 Lowell Barrington, `The Domestic and International Consequences of Citizenship in the Soviet Successor States', Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 47, no. 5, July 1995, pp. 731-759.
24.
23 Ibid.
25.
24 Andrus Park, `Ethnicity and Independence: The Case of Estonia in Comparative Perspective', Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 46, no. 1, January-February 1994, pp. 69-87.
26.
25 This rule was introduced in 1994.
27.
For an analysis of how the system works in Estonia, see Republic of Estonia: Parliamentary Elections, 7 March 1999 (Warsaw: OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, 1999), available online at http://www.osce.org/odihr/documents/reports/election_reports/ee/est1-1.pdf.
28.
27 In the summer of 1992, the Trade Union Centre entered into an alliance with the Russian Democratic Movement to establish a Co-ordinating Committee to protect the Russian-speaking population of the northeast (the committee was later renamed the Committee for the Autonomy of Northeastern Estonia).
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28 62% voted for the `Our Home is Estonia' alliance, and others for parties that clearly aligned with the Russian cause, such as the Social Democratic Labour Party.
30.
29 In the Riigikogu election of 1999, the Centre Party gained 19% of the vote in Tallinn, Russian parties just under 15%, and Estonian parties 66%. In the Russophone towns of the northeast, the Centre Party gained 34%, Russian parties 36%, and Estonian parties 30%.
