The Future of the Middle East: The Impact of the Northern Tier

1 See Ziya Onis, `Turkey in the Post-Cold War Era: In Search of Identity', Middle East Journal, vol. 49, no. 1, Winter 1995, pp. 48-50.

2 Ibid., pp. 53-56. Also see Ozay Mehmet, Islamic Identity and Development, (London: Routledge, 1990) pp. 9-19.

3 Graham Fuller, `Turkey's New Eastern Orientation', in Graham Fuller and Ian Lesser, eds, Turkey's New Geopolitics, (Boulder: Westview Press, 1993) pp. 37-48.

4 See Andrew Mango, Turkey: The Challenge of a New Role, (London: Praeger, 1994) pp. 110-121.

5 Graham Fuller, op cit., p. 68.

6 Interview with Prime Minister Tansu Ciller, Middle East Quarterly, June 1995, pp. 77-78.

7 Paul Henze, `Turkey: Toward the Twenty-First Century', in Graham Fuller and Ian Lesser, eds, Turkey's New Geopolitics, pp. 27-30.

8 See Lowell Bezanis, `On New Footing with Turkey', Transition, 23 June, 1995, p. 41 and The Christian Science Monitor, 27 September, 1995.

9 Ibid., p. 44. Also see Graham Fuller, op. cit., pp. 76, 89-90.

10 Graham Fuller, op. cit., pp. 49-50.

11 Ibid., pp. 52-53.

12 Ibid., p. 51. On Turkey-EC relations see Werner Weidenteld and Josef Janning, eds., Europe in Global Change, (Gutersloh: Bertelsmann Foundation Publishers, 1993) pp. 129-137.

13 Ibid., pp. 54-55.

14 Ibid., p. 55.

15 Robert Olson, op. cit., p. 6.

16 Ibid., `The Kurdish Question and Turkey's Foreign Policy, 1991-1995: From the Gulf War to the Incursion into Iraq', in Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies, vol. xix, no. 1, Fall 1995, pp. 5-7.

17 Ziya Onis, op. cit., pp. 61-62.

18 See Robert Olson, op. cit., pp. 23-26; Economic Intelligence Unit, 1993-94, pp. 11-12 and The Los Angeles Times, 10 July, 1995.

19 Ibid., p. 2.

20 Robert Olson, op. cit., p. 16.

21 Ibid., p. 10.

22 Ziya Onis, op. cit., p. 54.

23 Ibid., pp. 63-68.

24 Mahmood Sariolghalam, `Conceptual Sources of Post-revolutionary Iranian Behaviour Toward the Arab World', in Hooshang Amirahmadi and Nader Entessar, eds, Iran and the Arab World (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1993) pp. 25-26.

25 Mahmood Sariolghalam, `The New Middle East and Iran's Security Policy', in Jim Brown, ed., Arms Control in a Multipolar World (Dallas: Southern Methodist University, forthcoming.)

26 Ibid.

27 This duality is relevant to the political culture of Iran. On this issue see Graham Fuller, The Center of the Universe, (Boulder: Westview Press, 1991) pp. 8-25. Also See Manoucher Parvin and Mostafa Vaziri, `Islamic Man and Society in the Islamic Republic of Iran', in Samih Farsoun and Mehrdad Mashayekhi, eds, Political Culture in the Islamic Republic (London: Routledge, 1992) pp. 116-130.

28 Graham Fuller, Turkey's New Geopolitics, op. cit., pp. 74-76 and 174-176.

29 For some details on this interaction see Hanna Yousif Freij, `State Interests vs. The Umma: Iranian Policy in the Central Asia', The Middle East Journal, vol. 50, no. 1, Winter 1996, pp. 77-83.

30 On the elaboration of these points see Cyrus Bina, `Farewell to the Pax Americana: Iran, Political Islam, and the Passing of the Old Order', in Hamid Zanganeh ed., Islam, Iran and World Stability (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994) pp. 41-74.

31 Mahmood Sariolghalam, `Arab-Iranian Rapprochement: The Regional and International Impediments', a paper presented to the conference on Arab-Iranian Relations: Contemporary Trends and Prospects for the Future, Qatar, 11-14 September, 1995, pp. 3-4. Forthcoming by the Centre for Arab Unity Studies.

32 See the analysis in Mahmood Sariolghalam, `The New Middle East and Iran's Security Policy', op. cit., p. 11.

33 Ibid.

34 For a historical account of Arab-Iranian relations in the post-revolutionary period, see Shireen Hunter, Iran and the World, (Bloonington: Indiana University Press, 1990) pp. 98-131.

35 See `The New Middle East and Iran's Security Policy, op. cit., 21-22.

36 On recent social and economic developments in Iran that may have an impact on political behavior, see Milton Viorst, `The Limits of the Revolution' Foreign Affairs, November-December 1995, pp. 63-76 and Massoud Karshenas and Hashem Pesaran, `Economic Reform and the Reconstrction of the Iranian Economy', The Middle East Journal, vol. 49, no. 1, Winter 1995, pp. 89-113.