Abstract
This study investigates the degree to which movements in stock liquidity is determined by common underlying factors in a large emerging market, India. This degree is called commonality. Commonality has been measured for NIFTY50 stocks using high frequency data across a variety of liquidity measures. This study empirically verifies the relative strength of market- and industry-wide liquidity in explaining commonality. Furthermore, the study analyses the impact of industry-wide liquidity on the liquidity of individual stocks belonging to the key industries of Indian economy, viz. consumer goods and pharma, energy, financial services, infrastructure, information technology (IT) and telecom, manufacturing and natural resources. Among all the sectors studied infrastructure, IT and telecom, manufacturing and natural resources sectors possess higher degree of Industry-wide commonality. This means fund managers find it difficult in altering a portfolio having greater exposure to these sectors. Studying the behaviour of commonality will also assist regulators in monitoring abnormal market fluctuations. The study contributes to the understanding of commonality on an emerging order driven market like India.
Introduction
Stock liquidity is the ability to buy or sell stocks without impacting the price. A highly liquid stock is one which can stock that can be sold quickly. When it is sold at a discounted value or takes longer to sell, it is considered to be less liquid or illiquid. A company’s stock liquidity is adjudged using the difference between the buying price and selling price, that is, bid–ask spread. On other hand, market liquidity refers to market’s ability to facilitate buy and sale of stock without significantly changing its price. A liquid market is associated with less risk and attracts a large pool of market participants. Liquid market encourages the savers to invest in stock markets because they have the opportunity to sell stocks quickly and cheaply. A sudden dry up of the liquidity from the stock markets is the risk for market participants. Market crashes such as international stock market crash (October 1987) and Asian Financial Crises (1997) are not caused because of any major news. These crashes were characterized by sudden evaporation of aggregate market liquidity. This sheds light on the importance of systematic liquidity which is transmitted across financial assets and investors.
The phenomena of stock’s liquidity getting impacted by market liquidity is known as commonality in liquidity (Chordia et al., 2000). Commonality is a kind of non-diversifiable risk or systematic risk which has its implication on portfolio construction. Market may become highly illiquid in severe market conditions and it may jeopardize market participant’s ability to change their positions. Recently, commonality is found to be a priced risk factor in asset pricing models (Acharya & Pedersen, 2005). This calls for a greater understanding of commonality in liquidity. When liquidity of an individual stock is impacted by industry-wide liquidity, the phenomenon is known as industry commonality. Studying industry-wide commonality on Indian stock exchange will help investors in formulating trading strategies and industry and stock market regulators in taking measures to avoid market crashes due to sudden evaporation of liquidity in a particular industry.
As per World Economic Situation and Prospects report (2019), the global economy is facing many risks, which could severely disrupt economic activity and inflict significant damage on long-term development prospects. National and multilateral policy actions are vital to contain the systematic risk, particularly in emerging markets. Global investors seek out emerging markets to take advantage of the high growth rates and opportunities. The main emerging market powerhouses are China and India. In 2017, the combined economic output of these two economies (US$32.6 trillion) was greater than the European Union (US$20.9 trillion) and the USA (US$19.4 trillion). However, emerging markets like India are highly illiquid, volatile and possess high commonality risks. Therefore, it is vital to study commonality phenomena on emerging markets. Commonality results of developed markets cannot be replicated to emerging markets as these markets are undergoing constant changes. So, one should not utilize historical information to draw correlations between returns and events.
As per PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) 1 and Ernst & Young (EY) 2 reports, India is an attractive emerging market destination for foreign portfolio investors. Post liberalization, India has been on an economic growth trajectory. Industries like services, information technology (IT) and information technology enabled services (ITeS) have boomed because of cost advantages. The boosting economy is improving the income distribution which in turn has benefitted the industries like fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), banking and automobiles. Turbulent macroeconomic conditions and US subprime crises impacts the productivity gains of banking industry (Sharma & Sharma, 2015). Also, certain industries like pharmaceuticals and IT have more exposure to the foreign markets, and thus they are badly impacted during financial crises. The performance of energy industry gets impacted because of price fluctuations in crude oil or gulf crises. Industry expansion and deceleration impacts the trading of stocks of particular industries. Since each industry has unique characteristics, investment analyst should understand how industry-wide economic forces impact the co-movement of stocks.
This study focuses on analysing market- and industry-wide commonality risk on a key emerging market, India. The sample of the study comprises of NIFTY50 stocks listed on National Stock Exchange (NSE), India. These stocks are called as large capitalization, or large cap stocks. Large cap stocks are known to be most liquid, highly traded and draws high demand from both individual and institutional investors. Therefore, these stocks form a core of the investment portfolios. Drawing on the high frequency dataset on NSE comprising over 11 million intraday transactions, we report strong support for market-wide commonality, and a greater impact of industry-wide commonality in explaining the liquidity of individual stocks. Moreover, the study analyses the strength of industry-wide commonality across seven sectors of Indian economy: consumer goods and pharma, energy, financial services, infrastructure, IT and telecom, manufacturing and natural resources. Among all the sectors manufacturing, infrastructure, IT and telecom and natural resources are found to be significant in explaining the liquidity of stocks. The article contributes to the existing literature in the following ways: first, unlike the existing literature which focuses more on market-wide commonality, this article also includes industry-wide commonality and does a comparison of both. Thus, this article is quite comprehensive in terms of estimating and comparing commonality in liquidity. Second, existing literature on commonality is focused on the developed markets. This article focuses on a key emerging market, India, where systemic risk like commonality is more pervasive than the developed markets.
The rest of the article is organized as follows: the second section of the article discusses the literature and specifies research objectives. It is important to understand the market microstructure of the stock market as it defines the structural factors which drives the price and volume preferences of the participants (CFA Institute, 2009). Market microstructure further determines the liquidity in the stock market. The study on liquidity and commonality requires the understanding of underlying market microstructure. The third section provides insights into the market microstructure of Indian stock markets. The fourth section describes the data, how it was processed for analysis, defines the liquidity measures employed along with the explanation of methodology to examine commonality in liquidity. The fifth section 5 discusses the empirical results on commonality evidence, comparison between market- and industry-wide commonality and the strength of industry-wide commonality across the sectors. The sixth section summarize our findings, briefly discusses the managerial implications and provides the direction for future research.
Literature Review
One of the prominent functions of the financial markets is to provide liquidity to stocks as well as to the market (Syamala et al., 2014). Demsetz (1968) and Tinic (1972) propounded that trading activity is the determinant of liquidity along with other factors such as firm size and volatility. Amihud and Mendelson (1986) further defined the concept of liquidity as the ease at which a stock is traded in the stock markets. Early strands of literature make independent study of stock liquidity and market liquidity. Negative relationship is found between stock returns and associated liquidity (Amihud & Mendelson, 1991; Brennan & Subrahmanyam, 1996; Fiori, 2000).
Recently, research interest has moved from studying individual characteristics of the liquidity to the common characteristics (Chordia et al., 2000; Hasbrouck & Seppi, 2001; Huberman & Halka, 2001). Chordia et al. (2000) studied transactions data from New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and opined that liquidity is not just the characteristic of individual stock, rather it is the systematic characteristic. Liquidity of individual stock co-moves with the liquidity of the market. This co-movement is a systematic risk known as commonality in liquidity. Inventory risks and asymmetric information are identified as the reasons for the existence of such a co-movement. Hasbrouck and Seppi (2001) does not provide significant support regarding commonality phenomenon on the basis of principal component analysis for 30 Dow stocks. Brockman and Chung (2002) take account of the commonality in an order-driven market structure by examining intraday data on Hong Kong stock exchange (or The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong [SEHK]). Their study argued that a quote-driven system imposes barriers on entry and exit in market participation while order-driven systems have free existed perspective. This makes order-driven systems more susceptible to commonality. Also, there is no market maker to maintain liquidity in the market. This study documented that market-wide commonality is more pronounced than industry-wide commonality on spread- and depth-based liquidity measures. Dicle and Mukherjee (2011) provide evidence in favour of strong commonality in liquidity in the first and last hour of trading. They argued that common intraday trading patterns, as well as commonality, is caused by common factors, that is, inventory risk and information asymmetry. Rösch and Kaserer (2014) moved deeper into the order book and observed that commonality becomes stronger during crises. Co-variation in supply side liquidity and demand side liquidity are reported to be two sources of commonality.
In the context of emerging markets, Pukthuanthong-Le and Visaltanachoti (2009) reconfirmed commonality evidence on Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) over 8-year period and reports that the explanatory power of industry-wide commonality is stronger than market-wide commonality. However, the strength of commonality on SET is lesser in comparison to NYSE (Chordia et al., 2000). Day-of-the-week; stock returns and tick size are identified as possible determinants of liquidity. Kumar and Shah (2012) investigated the existence of commonality on NSE, India, using one proxy and four timestamps in a day. Their study suggests the strength of commonality is more during the bearish phase of the market. Investment managers find it difficult to alter the portfolio during downturns. The study also shows that commonality follows weekly and monthly effects. Brockman et al. (2009) shows that local factor drives commonality more in comparison to the global factors. Macroeconomic announcements are found to be stronger source of commonality in emerging economies. Both Karolyi et al. (2012) and Brockman et al. (2009) noted that emerging markets are more vulnerable to the commonality risk. Wang’s (2013) empirical model tests the strength of global, local and regional factors in commonality across 12 Asian markets. Wang also finds evidence on increasing strength of commonality over a decade from 2000 to 2010.
There have been an increasing number of studies on market-wide commonality in recent years. However, few studies have examined industry-wide commonality. Narayan et al. (2015) examines the influence of industry-wide liquidity in explaining the variation in liquidity of stocks listed on Chinese stock exchanges. The strength of industry-wide commonality is found to be highest in industrial sector.
Previous literature also extensively discusses the role of liquidity and commonality in asset pricing. Fama and French (1993) argued that the non-diversifiable risk factor in asset pricing model is explained by market-wide factors. Amihud (2002) and Pastor and Stambaugh (2003) found negative relationship between expected stock returns and market liquidity. Liu (2006) extends two factor Fama–French Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) model with liquidity factor and reports better results in explaining returns. Other, studies re-examine asset pricing by including stock’s liquidity relative to market-wide liquidity, that is, commonality risk. Acharya and Pedersen (2005) formulated a liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model to understand how various channels of liquidity risk affect asset prices in US stock markets. Lee (2011) further tested this model on international financial markets to show pricing of liquidity risks. The priced liquidity risks are covariance of individual stocks’ liquidity with the local market liquidity and the covariance of individual stocks’ liquidity with local and world market returns. Global liquidity risk factors are found to be more important for developed markets than local liquidity risk factors. Amihud et al. (2015) found high illiquidity premiums in emerging markets.
Rationale of the Study
The increasing globalization of financial markets has increased the interest of international investors in emerging markets. The empirical literature has thus far focused on developed markets and overlooked the commonality of liquidity phenomenon on key emerging economies like India. For instance, Chordia et al. (2000) reported commonality evidence on NYSE (USA), which is a quote-driven market consisting of market specialists. However, India’s NSE is the order-driven market where such market specialists are absent. Thus, specialist inventory holding costs are less relevant on NSE. These differences in the market microstructure of NSE and NYSE could result in differences in the strength of commonality (Brockman & Chung, 2002). Finally, research relating to commonality is of prime relevance to market participants as systematic variations in liquidity is a priced risk factor. Fernando and Herring (2003) shows that shocks to commonality can even trigger financial crises. In fact, the simultaneous decline in systematic liquidity across several markets was a major contributory factor in the Asian and Russian crises in 1997–1998. This variation in systematic liquidity is systematic risk. This risk is more pervasive in emerging markets because of their interconnectedness (Rao, 2000). Thus, it is imperative to study commonality phenomenon on emerging markets like India.
Objectives of the Study
Our study contributes to the published literature by testing for the existence of market- and industry-wide commonality in liquidity on all 50 stocks belonging to benchmark NIFTY50 index of NSE. We use detailed order and transaction data which is difficult to obtain for emerging markets. Specifically, we examine liquidity co-movement of individual stocks with market liquidity. Moreover, we investigate the relative strength of commonality across market and across industry. After noticing that the strength of industry-wide commonality is more than the market commonality, we further investigate the strength of commonality across seven industries.
Market Microstructure: Indian Stock Market
As per Chan et al. (1995), the institutional features of the markets can have material effects on the differences in intraday patterns. Hence it is prominent to study the market microstructure of Indian stock markets. Indian stock market comprises of two main trading avenues viz. NSE and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The trading system of these two is identical, having the same features. Because of the development in IT and financial market reforms, electronic limit order book and order driven market structures have become popular trading designs. NSE and BSE, both have electronic limit order book into their order driven market structure. In order driven market structure there is no designated market makers and all limit orders submitted to the screen-based electronic trading system (National Exchange for Automated Trading [NEAT]) is displayed. This trading system operates on price–time priority. The limit orders are first sorted by price and the best price buy-order gets priority in matching with the best sell order. The orders having a similar price are sorted on the basis of time priority, and the earlier orders get priority over the later orders. An unmatched order remains in the system for a day until the fresh arrival of the order, or cancellation or modification of the earlier order. The order matching is done electronically, thus keeping trading system transparent and fair. Brockman and Chung (2002) reasoned that the order-driven market structures are more susceptible to commonality because of the absence of market makers. The market makers are obliged to maintain a balance of liquidity in quote driven markets.
The last decade (2000–2010) has witnessed major developments in Indian securities market regarding improved market microstructure, regulatory reforms and the introduction of new products. The introduction of an automated trading system, reduction of rolling settlement cycle from T + 5 to T + 2 and dematerialization of the stocks, reduces transaction time and enhances liquidity. Direct market access (DMA) provides direct access to the exchange trading system through brokers infrastructure but without manual intervention by the broker. This facility is introduced for institutional investors. Applications supported by blocked amount (ASBA) overcome the limitation of refund amount and empower investors to earn interest on blocked amount. Mini derivative contracts on Nifty and Sensex enhances retail participation and market liquidity in stock derivatives. Regulatory framework has been strengthened by mandating the corporation and demutualization of stock exchanges.
Methodology
Data Source and Sample
Weight and Composition of Sector in the Sample
Liquidity Measures
Liquidity is an elusive concept (Kyle, 1985). A single measure is not able to capture all dimensions of the liquidity. Therefore, the studies of liquidity are carried using multiple liquidity proxies or measures. We measure liquidity using proxies such as quoted spread (QS), effective spread (ES) and depth (DEP). The definition of these measures is provided in Table 2. Following Chordia et al. (2000), market liquidity (
Liquidity Variables Definitions
Summary Statistics and Correlations Among Variables of NIFTY50 Stocks
Empirical Model: Market-wide Commonality
The study tests the presence of market-wide commonality following the empirical model (Chordia et al., 2000).
where
Empirical Model: Market-wide and Industry-wide Commonality
The study also examined the relative impact of industry-wide commonality on individual stock liquidity, using the following empirical model (Chordia et al., 2000).
Empirical Model: Industry-wide Commonality
The study tests the presence of industry-wide commonality following the empirical model (Chordia et al., 2000).
where
Analysis and Discussion
Market-wide Commonality in Liquidity
The study empirically tests for the presence of commonality along three liquidity proxies. The results reported in Table 4 reports the regression results corresponding to Equation (2). Squared market returns are nuisance variables, and thus not reported (Chordia et al., 2000). The statistical significance of the concurrent market liquidity variable (β1) indicates the presence of commonality. Cross-sectional t-tests are used to test if the cross-sectional average of β1 equals to 0. The average coefficient on concurrent market liquidity variable is 0.86, 0.92 and 0.85, respectively, on QS, ES and DEP proxies. Approximately 90 per cent of these individual concurrent market coefficients are positive from 50 regressions. The t-stat of the liquidity measures ranges from 7.256 to 13.973. The results report that ES shows the highest degree of commonality with a mean coefficient of concurrent market liquidity variable (β1) equals to 0.925.
The study provides strong evidence of commonality when compared with the previous studies. At 5 per cent significance levels, Narayan et al. (2015) reported that 37–88 per cent of the stocks listed on Chinese stock markets have positive and significant concurrent coefficients. Chordia et al. (2000) reported the significance of 14–34 per cent of the stocks on NYSE. Moreover, Pukthuanthong-Le and Visaltannachoti (2009) reported that 17–59 per cent of the stocks listed on SET have positive and significant concurrent coefficients.
The comparative analysis shows that commonality in liquidity is much pervasive in Indian stock markets than on other order driven markets such as China and Thailand, and also quote driven markets like the USA.
Market-wide and Industry-wide Commonality in Liquidity
The study further investigated the effect of industry-wide liquidity on the liquidity of the individual stocks taking market liquidity as a control variable. The results presented in Table 5 reports results corresponding to Equation (3). Chordia et al. (2000) argued that asymmetric information about a particular industry causes co-variation in the liquidity of the stocks belonging to the same industry.
The cross-sectional mean of the concurrent coefficient on industry liquidity (γ1) is found to be greater than market liquidity (β1). This is also true for sum coefficients (β1 + β2 + β3, γ1 + γ2 + γ1). ‘Sum’ variable captures the combined effect of concurrent, lead and lad coefficients on stock liquidity. This means that explanatory power of the change in industry-wide liquidity is stronger than the explanatory power of the change in market-wide liquidity along all proxies. The study points out that the proportion of positively significant beta (β1) and concurrent coefficient (β1) decreases after controlling for the industry effect (on comparing Tables 4 and 5). This implies that quantum and significance of industry-wide commonality emerges while market-wide commonality decreases reflecting greater industry effects.
Market-wide Commonality in Liquidity
Market-wide and Industry-wide Commonality
Industry-wide Commonality in Liquidity
This section presents empirical findings corresponding to the empirical model (4) across the seven industries. This model is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) for each stock. The selected industries are consumer goods and pharma (CGP), energy (ENGY), financial services (FIN), infrastructure (INFRA), IT and Telecom (ITT), manufacturing (MANF) and natural resources (NATR).
Industry-wide Commonality for QS Proxy
Industry-wide Commonality for ES Proxy
Table 8 reports the results of industry-wide commonality on depth-based DEP proxy of liquidity. The highest mean is 1.301 on NATR industry while it is lowest on CGP industries with a value of 0.605. This implies that the strength of commonality is highest on NATR and lowest in CGP on the basis of DEP liquidity measure. The lowest proportion of stocks with positive and concurrent coefficient significant (5%) are part of CGP and MANF industries. The other coefficients like lead coefficient and lag coefficient have limited explanatory power in explaining the movements of individual stock liquidity. ‘Sum’ coefficient is observed to be in the range of 0.659 (INFRA) to 1.38 (NATR). Across all industries, the median R2 is found to be in between 3 and 16 per cent.
Industry-wide Commonality for DEP Proxy
Conclusion
This article extends the literature on market-microstructure by examining commonality in liquidity phenomenon on one of the key emerging market, India. High frequency trade and quote data for NSE’s NIFTY50 is used for the analysis.
The study finds strong evidence in favour of market-wide liquidity commonality. In over 80 per cent of the cases, the concurrent coefficient on market liquidity is found to be positive and significant. The quantum of the concurrent coefficient on NSE is more than those found in other markets such as NYSE (USA), SET (Thailand), etc. This indicates that the strength of market-wide commonality is more in Indian stock markets. The study also reports that the explanatory power of industry-wide commonality is more than the market-wide commonality. Moreover, the study tests industry-wide commonality across seven industries. The results suggest that commonality is pervasive across the key industries of the Indian economy. The stocks belonging to infrastructure, IT and telecom, manufacturing and natural resources industries, strongly co-moves with the liquidity of their corresponding industry.
Managerial Implications
Commonality poses the challenge to the diversification strategies, according to which the return characteristics of the stocks in a portfolio should not correlate with each other (Domowitz et al., 2005). The stocks belonging to the industries having high degree of commonality are more sensitive to systematic liquidity shocks. Investors demand higher expected returns in holding the stocks belonging to such industries. This makes findings important to fund managers, as liquidity and commonality risks are priced (Acharya & Pederson, 2005). Regulators should make efforts in order to make market stable by ensuring the adequacy of liquidity Geithner (2007). This empirical evidence will assist the stock market regulators such as SEBI in improving the market design (Coughenour & Saad, 2004). The results obtained have important implications for making investment strategies in the studied sectors and in understanding the market microstructure of Indian stock market.
Limitation
Availability of high frequency data is one of the key limitations of the study on market microstructure in emerging economies. To take a robust investment and policy decision regarding commonality in liquidity, one has to extend this study on a large sample of stocks and over a larger period.
Future Research
Studying the causes of market-wide commonality and industry-wide commonality on NSE will be an interesting area for future research.
Appendix I
NIFTY50 Stocks and Associated Industry Used in the Study
Footnotes
Acknowledgement
The authors are grateful to the anonymous referees of the journal for their extremely useful suggestions to improve the quality of the article. Usual disclaimers apply.
Declaration of Conflicting Interests
The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
Funding
The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
