Abstract
This case examines the June 2015 decision of Muhammad Asad, a fund manager at Al Meezan Investment Management Limited, to participate in the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Al Shaheer Corporation, a leading meat sector company of Pakistan. He was interested in increasing the exposure of the Meezan Islamic Fund (MIF) to the food sector, provided attractive risk-adjusted returns could be achieved. Based on the research team analysis and his own assessment, Asad had to decide whether or not to participate in the IPO book building process and the number of shares to bid for at each price level. Both Market Multiples and Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation methods had yielded share value higher than the IPO floor price of PKR 43 per share which encouraged Asad to consider the investment opportunity. He also had to decide on the amount that he could allocate to the IPO on behalf of MIF. Asad had to prepare his recommendations on the IPO for presentation and approval by the investment committee in the upcoming meeting. He has asked you to conduct an independent analysis and valuation of Al Shaheer stock over the weekend and share your findings with him early Monday morning.
Keywords
Discussion Questions
What are the costs and benefits of Al Shaheer Corporation going public? Briefly describe the IPO process.
What is the growth potential of the meat sector of Pakistan within the global halal food market? How is Al Shaheer Corporation positioned to benefit from this opportunity?
What are some of the key risks faced by Al Shaheer Corporation that could impact its financial position and performance in the future?
Does Al Shaheer meet the Shariah criteria of Al Meezan Investment Management Limited to qualify for investment?
What is your estimate of the target stock price of Al Shaheer using the Discounted Cash Flow approach and information provided in the case? What about Al Shaheer’s stock value based on market multiples?
Would you recommend Asad to participate in the IPO? Defend your position.
Muhammad Asad, a fund manager at Al Meezan Investment Management Limited, skimmed through an equity valuation report as he reflected on the issues that had come up in a long discussion with the equity research team which concluded on Friday evening, 5 June 2015. The discussion had focused on the upcoming initial public offering (IPO) of Al Shaheer Corporation, a leading meat sector company of Pakistan. The research team was led by Ali Asghar, senior manager research, and an equity analyst, Hassan Khan, who specialized in food sector research. Both Asad and Ali had recently attended the pre-IPO road show and had interesting discussions with Al Shaheer senior managers and the research analysts of the lead underwriters, the AKD Securities Limited (AKDS) and the Next Capital Limited (NCL). The book-building portion of the IPO was scheduled to open for subscription on 10–11 June 2015. Asad, who managed the leading Shariah compliant equity fund, Meezan Islamic Fund (MIF), was interested in increasing the fund’s exposure to the food sector, provided attractive risk-adjusted returns could be achieved.
Based on the research team’s analysis and his own assessment, Asad had to decide whether or not to participate in the IPO, and in the event of participation in the book-building process the number of shares to bid for at each price level. The research team had used the market multiples and discounted cash flow (DCF) methods for IPO valuation. Both methods had yielded share value higher than the IPO floor price of PKR 43 per share, albeit significantly different, which encouraged Asad to consider the investment opportunity. However, since the upper price limit of the offer was not specified, his dilemma was not to bid too low and be priced out or bid too high, giving up the upside potential if the offer price settled at the higher end. He wondered if he should make a single limit bid or step bids at different price levels in the book-building exercise. In addition, Asad had to decide on the amount that he could allocate to the IPO on behalf of the MIF. Asad just had the weekend to prepare his recommendations on the IPO for presentation and approval by the investment committee in the meeting scheduled for Monday, 8 June 2015.
Al Meezan Investment Management Limited
Al Meezan Investment Management was the largest asset management and investment advisory firm in the private sector of Pakistan. Established in 1995, Al Meezan had been facilitating investors to achieve their financial goals through investing in Shariah compliant products. Its vision was ‘to make Shariah compliant investing a first choice of investors.’ It had a diverse investor clientele base ranging from institutions and businesses to individuals and high net worth (HNW) clients.
Al Meezan offered a wide range of Shariah compliant mutual funds and investment solutions. The mutual funds included equity, balanced asset allocation, money market, fixed income, market tracker, capital preservation, fund-of-fund, commodity, and voluntary pension schemes. With assets under management (AUM) of over PKR 67.7 billion 1 (as of 31 May 2015), it had eleven open-end mutual funds, one voluntary pension scheme and several administrative plans. MIF was the largest fund of Al Meezan with AUM of PKR 26.41 billion as on 31 May 2015. The fund had a stellar track record of performance. The separately managed accounts (SMAs) offered clients with customized solutions to portfolio structuring and investment management (Al Meezan Investment Management Limited, n.d.).
The IPO Process
The process of IPO was the first sale of stock by a private company to the general public in the primary markets, enabling it to have the stock listed and traded on the stock exchanges. It was an arduous and complex process.
Before initiating the IPO process, a private firm typically had to do a significant amount of preparatory work: generate a credible business plan to utilize capital; prepare audited financial statements; restructure organization and hire professional managers; induct independent directors on its board; provide performance projections and cash flows; and engage with investment bankers, accountants and legal advisors. A bake-off meeting could be helpful with several investment banks prior to selecting a lead underwriter who could spearhead the IPO process and put together a syndicate. The selection criteria included the IPO track record and reputation of the underwriter, proposed compensation, research analysts’ coverage and support, distribution capabilities and ability to provide aftermarket stabilization support. The lead underwriter had a number of responsibilities including financial and procedural advice, valuing the IPO shares, buying and marketing the shares to the public, generating ongoing research on the company and price stabilization in the aftermarket. The terms of the IPO agreement were outlined in the letter of intent which was not legally binding until the offering price was finalized immediately before the distribution of shares. The letter of intent indicated the nature of contract—firm commitment or best effort. Under the firm commitment, the underwriter would purchase the shares for an agreed net price and then attempt to sell the shares at a higher price resulting in the underwriter spread as a compensation for its efforts. Any unsold shares were held by the underwriter for its own account. In a best efforts contract, the underwriter would agree to make the best effort to sell the shares at an agreed price without any commitment to purchase any unsold shares.
An important responsibility of the underwriter was to assist the firm in producing the registration statement for approval by the regulatory body. The registration statement included information such as description of business, use of funds and business strategy, ownership structure, management, financial data and performance history. The statement was prepared after the underwriter had conducted a comprehensive exercise of due diligence in reviewing and verifying the company documents, contracts, tax returns, etc. Once the registration statement was filed with the regulator, it would become the preliminary prospectus often referred to as the red herring, used in the marketing of shares to potential investors in person or through road shows organized by the lead underwriter and the firm’s management.
Another issue facing the offering companies was the timing of the offer. The investor appetite of IPOs globally fluctuated considerably from hot issue markets enabling investors to earn attractive returns as a result of under-pricing and/or excessive demand leading to oversubscriptions, generally in the backdrop of sharply rising stock markets. The issues had tended to vary dramatically over time in Pakistan reflecting the market sentiments and uncertainty surrounding the capital markets. Most of the IPOs in Pakistan were done in the 1990s, averaging around 35 IPOs per year. However, from 2000 to June 2015, the IPO market had dropped to an average of about six IPOs per year. In 2013, only three IPOs materialized in Pakistan despite the Pakistan stock market’s stellar performance of posting a gain of 49 per cent for the year. The number of IPOs and secondary offerings rose to nine in 2014 as markets continued to rise on the back of foreign investors holding US$4.4 billion worth of Pakistani shares, that is, 36 per cent of the free-float and 8 per cent of market capitalization (Abduhu, 2014). Exhibit 1 provides summary information about the IPOs in Pakistan during the past four years. The lack of appetite for IPOs in Pakistan was due to a number of factors including the socio-political and economic uncertainty surrounding capital markets. In addition, a more stringent capital market’s regulatory regime and oversight could have deterred some companies from going public.
Al Shaheer Corporation
Al Shaheer Corporation Limited (ASC) was the prime name in the formal meat sector of Pakistan. It was established as a partnership in 2008 and converted into a private limited company in June 2012. This Karachi-based company was HACCP (Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point) certified and had a vision ‘to become a leader in the global halal 2 meat trade’ (Al Shaheer Corporation Limited Preliminary Prospectus, 2015). The company enjoyed a leading position as a fresh meat exporter and retailer in Pakistan.
With more than 550 employees and US$45 million (PKR 4.4 billion) in annual revenue, Al Shaheer operated in three business segments: meat exports, meat retail, and institutional meat sales. Its products ranged from fresh and chilled beef, mutton and lamb for export and local markets, camel meat both fresh and frozen for exports and fresh chilled and frozen raw fish with a range of marinated and ready to cook meat items. Animals were procured mostly from cattle markets and brought to the company abattoirs 3 for slaughter and processing. Exhibit 2 shows the supply chain of Al Shaheer.
Al Shaheer’s sales grew by a compound annualized growth rate (CAGR) of 35 per cent in value and 17 per cent in volume during the last four years as of 2014. The total sales of the company had shown an increasing trend over the past five years with the major share in revenue coming from exports. Exhibit 3 shows the sales revenue generated by key segments of the company.
Export Segment
The primary business segment of Al Shaheer, representing 77 per cent of the top line in 2014, was the export division. The company sourced local cattle and slaughtered them at the state-of-the-art abattoir and transported the meat carcass in custom-designed refrigerated trucks from the factory to the airport to be delivered to its international clients. It exported certified fresh meat to United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Some of its products ended up at some of the largest stores in the Middle East including LULU and Carrefour in Dubai. The company had also added a de-boning facility along with the blast freezers to the abattoir, enabling it to export boneless, frozen meat via sea to major regional markets resulting in significant savings in transportation cost. Al Shaheer capitalized on the growing international demand and its exports grew from over PKR 2.3 billion in 2011–2012 to over PKR 3.7 billion in 2013–2014.
Retail Segment
Pakistan had a meat market worth PKR 1.25 trillion (Baloch, 2015) and about 95 per cent of the meat in the country was sold through the wet market or roadside butchers. Al Shaheer brought a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s meat sector. The company saw potential for modern and upscale butcher shops in the country and sought to provide a hassle-free and pleasant meat buying experience to the customers by introducing a chain of specialty meat shops, Meat One, in 2010. Meat One provided quality meat with live butchery as well as convenient pre-packs and marinated and ready to cook products in Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad.
Another retail brand of Al Shaheer, Khaas, 4 introduced in 2013, targeted price-sensitive consumers in the mass market. The custom-designed Khaas outlets offered competitive prices which were at par with the prevailing market rates for beef, mutton and chicken, along with a clean and pleasant meat buying experience. Khaas meat stores were present both as stand-alone meat shops and within larger retail outlets in Karachi and Lahore.
To reduce the cyclical impact of fall in post-Eid al-Adha 5 sales, Al Shaheer launched a qurbani 6 service in 2011 in Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad. This enabled customers to delegate their sacrifice ritual to Al Shaheer which generated positive cash flows for the company.
Institutional Selling
Al Shaheer’s institutional selling division catered to local clients, with bulk orders, at cost-effective rates. The clients included multinational corporations, hospitals, caterers and restaurants looking for a one stop solution for their meat procurement requirements. Abbot pharmaceuticals, Agha Khan University Hospital, Pakistan Navy, Pizza Hut, and Johnny Rockets were a few notable clients.
Al Shaheer Farms
In March 2015, the company decided to vertically integrate its supply chain by incorporating Al Shaheer Farms (Private) Limited. It planned to set up Pakistan’s largest feedlot fattening farm in the Thatta district of Sindh by adopting best practices in farm management and technology to raise cattle with the sole purpose of obtaining meat. The company planned to eventually raise 8,000 cattle heads every year for high quality production of beef. The cattle would be brought to the farm, kept for ninety days and fed a proper diet in order to increase the meat yield and quality. Premium prices would be charged for the high-quality meat.
The Global Halal Food Market: An Overview
The global halal food and beverage market was estimated at US$1,128 billion in 2014 and accounted for 16.7 per cent of the global food and beverage market. The market was expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.8 per cent (2014–2020) and would be worth US$1,585 billion by 2020. The top three countries in the Halal Food Indicator (HFI) ranking were Malaysia, Pakistan, and the UAE. Furthermore, based on 2014 estimates, the top countries with Muslim food consumption were Indonesia (US$157.6 billion), Turkey (US$109.7 billion), Pakistan (US$100.5 billion) and Egypt (US$75.5 billion) (Thomson Reuters, 2015).
The key factor contributing to the growth of the global halal food market was the increase in global Muslim population. According to the Pew Research Centre, in 2010, there were 1.6 billion Muslims in the world, 23 per cent of the world’s total population. Also, with Islam being the second fastest growing religion in the world, the Muslim population was expected to grow twice as fast as the non-Muslim population, reaching 2.2 billion in 2030 (BMI Research, 2015).
Over the years, the global meat consumption also increased. In China, the average meat consumption per year increased from 9 kg per person to more than 50 kg per person in thirty years leading to strong growth in demand for meat products. The average meat consumption in the developing world was at 16 kg per person and that in industrialized countries was around 90 kg per person (Bradfield & Ismail, 2012). The meat consumption in Pakistan was around 18 kg per person as compared to the world average of 42 kg per capita (Al Shaheer Corporation Limited Preliminary Prospectus, 2015).
The global expenditure on meat amounted to US$1.3 trillion in 2013. However, the global halal meat market valued at US$300 billion in 2014 with 12 per cent demand coming from Muslims residing in Europe and the Americas (Business Recorder, 2015a). Pakistan’s strength had been 100 per cent halal production. However, despite being the sixth largest country in terms of population and the second largest Muslim country in the world, its global share in the halal meat exports was less than 3 per cent according to Halal Research Council (HRC) (Business Recorder, 2015a), and it was ranked eighteenth in the global halal meat market. Over 80 per cent of the halal trade was done by non-Muslim majority countries (Memon, 2013a). Refer to Table 1.
Global Halal Meat Exporters
Meat Sector of Pakistan
More than 8 million families in the rural areas of Pakistan were involved in raising livestock, and this sector contributed 11.8 per cent to the national GDP of the country (Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan, n.d.). Livestock had grown at an average rate of 4 per cent per annum since 2007. The major part of the livestock population was located in the rural and semi-urban areas of Punjab and mainly consisted of cows, buffalos, sheep and goats. Sindh was the second largest province, in terms of livestock population, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Aslam, 2013).
Milk was the major product of livestock, followed by meat. The total meat production in Pakistan increased from 3.2 million tonnes in 2011–2012 to 3.5 million tonnes in 2013–2014 (Figure 1). Meat was supplied on a daily basis to meet the nutritional requirements of the local consumers and a large number of animals were slaughtered on Eid al-Adha. Moreover, meat and meat products were exported to various international markets. The bulk of meat exports of Pakistan comprised red meat, especially beef. The major export markets for Pakistani beef and mutton were the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman. The meat exports of Pakistan grew by 9.5 per cent in 2013–2014 and at a CAGR of 29.1 per cent from US$14 million in 2002–2003 to US$230 million in 2013–2014 (Figure 2).


There were three types of livestock producers in Pakistan: (i) small farmers comprised over 80 per cent of the farming community with less than five animals; (ii) medium-sized farmer/producers with five to ten animals represented 14 per cent of the farming community; and (iii) large-scale producers having more than ten animals were only 3 per cent. Since most of the animals in the county were raised by subsistence farmers, their nutritional requirements were not properly met, resulting in low-quality meat. Moreover, breeds ideal for meat production had not been developed in Pakistan, specifically for the purpose of obtaining beef. Also, the beef animals, buffalo and cattle, were typically slaughtered very young when they had not attained the appropriate weight for good quality meat or when they were too old.
Animal breeding for meat was done on some organized feedlot farms with a trained workforce. There were two types of feedlot players in Pakistan: small-scale and capital-intensive larger farms. The small-scale feedlot farmers focused on earning premiums by raising a small herd of animals (around twenty) for sale on Eid al-Adha and the larger feedlots focused on volumetric sales and value addition and had contracts with the exporters. Better protein-rich feed, proper husbandry and veterinary care at these farms resulted in high yielding meat animals and high-quality meat. However, feedlot fattening farms were a relatively new phenomenon in Pakistan but the concept was gaining traction. 7
There were rural-based slaughterhouses, government abattoirs and private export-oriented slaughterhouses in the urban areas. In 2012, there were eleven slaughterhouses in Pakistan that met international standards—five in Karachi and Lahore each, and one in Peshawar. In total, there were 350 slaughterhouses in the public sector and around forty in the private sector (Bradfield & Ismail, 2012). Meat prices, in the domestic market, were regulated by the government, resulting in low margins for butchers and meat shops. On the other hand, the processed meat industry did not face regulatory price controls. Their operations ranged from slaughtering of meat animals to processing meat into ready to cook, fermented, packaged and preserved forms. The major players included Al Shaheer Corporation, Zenith Associates, Syed Traders, PK Foods, Abedin International, KATCO International and Tazij Meat and Foods.
Meat was channelled via wholesalers and retailers to various hotels and restaurants, food service providers, suppliers and super markets. Meat was mostly bought fresh in the wet market by consumers at the butcher shops where it was cut according to individual customer preferences. Over the years, however, a number of specialty retail meat shops offering consumers a clean and hygienic environment were opened to cater to the demand of a growing urban middle class. These included Meat One, Khaas, Zenith, Meat Dukan, Meat Pro and TATA Best Foods.
In order to ensure ample supply of meat to the domestic and international markets, the government encouraged the private sector to invest in the livestock business to promote commercial livestock farming. An export-led growth strategy was envisaged with a focus on high-quality livestock and value-added products to enhance existing exports and to help the meat industry make inroads into new markets (Aslam, 2013). For example, the Punjab government established the Punjab Agriculture and Meat Company (PAMCO) under Section 42 of the Company’s Ordinance, 1984, with a state-of-the-art slaughterhouse to develop the meat sector.
The Poultry Subsector
The poultry subsector contributed 28 per cent to the total meat production in Pakistan and generated income for 1.5 million people. With an investment of over PKR 200 billion, this subsector showed a robust growth of 8–10 per cent annually and contributed 1.3 per cent to the GDP of Pakistan, 6.1 per cent to agriculture and 10.8 per cent to livestock value added in the country. The poultry value added showed an increase of 7.4 per cent from PKR 121.7 billion in 2012–2013 to PKR 130.7 billion in 2013–2014 (Ministry of Finance, Government of Pakistan, n.d.).
Commercial poultry farming in Pakistan started in the 1960s with the establishment of PIA Shavers by Canada’s Messers Shavers with the help of the Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) in 1962. By 2013, there were 25,000 commercial poultry farms and 150 feed mills with a production capacity of 2,821 million tonnes of compounds feed per annum in the country (Memon, 2013b). The government encouraged the development of the poultry subsector through favourable tax treatment to poultry and related businesses.
Al Shaheer Going Public
Al Shaheer Corporation would be Pakistan’s first IPO from the meat sector, offering 25,000,000 ordinary shares (27.31 per cent of the post-IPO paid-up capital) of face value PKR 10 each to the public. It would also be the first IPO in the food sector during the last four years, after Engro Foods IPO in 2011. The fund manager of MIF, Muhammad Asad, recalled the success of Engro Foods Limited’s IPO and began looking into the IPO of Al Shaheer Corporation. Engro Foods was priced at PKR 25 per share which was more than twenty-five times the projected 2011 earnings of the company, a steep premium over the then prevailing market P/E multiple of less than eight. The stock had performed extremely well and traded at more than PKR 68 per share, a year after the listing (Tirmizi, 2012). Asad had a discussion with the senior manager research, Ali Asghar, about the next IPO from the food sector and decided to attend the pre-IPO company presentation. While driving back from the presentation, Asad pointed out that this IPO could turn out to be another success story:
The company has started investing in human resources, filling key management positions with employees from various multinational companies in the country. So, instead of learning through trial and error, it can catapult its growth story by learning from the experience of these individuals.
Asad asked Ali to look into the IPO and conduct an in-depth analysis of the company. He eagerly awaited the analysis report from the research team before he could decide on participating in the IPO.
Amidst positive developments in the capital market in Pakistan, Al Shaheer Corporation decided to go public by offering 75 per cent shares of the total issue via the book-building mechanism and the remaining 25 per cent shares to the general public. The company had experienced high growth but the lack of funds had constrained its expansion and development plans. During the company’s presentation, a senior executive at Al Shaheer remarked:
The extraordinary growth of the company compelled us to consider going public to raise funds so that higher level of investments sustain our growth and bring greater efficiencies to the business yielding superior returns for our stakeholders.
He further elaborated:
In the last few years, there were significant growth opportunities in the food sector in Pakistan. But due to lack of sufficient funds, Al Shaheer was unable to fully benefit from those business opportunities. We believe that we can achieve the forecasted profits with the funds raised and provide attractive returns to the public, investing in the company.
Al Shaheer planned to use the proceeds of the IPO to set up a poultry unit and meat processing factory, extend the retail network of the company, and meet the working capital requirements of the company. Exhibit 4 gives the proposed utilization of the IPO proceeds for each project category.
The company aimed to enhance its foothold in the poultry business by establishing a fully vertically integrated enterprise from hatchery to final production in Lahore. Exhibit 5 shows the project milestones. The plant was expected to start commercial production in June 2017 with a capacity of 5,000 birds per hour. Also, a meat-processing facility was to be established to produce frozen, ready to cook products which had a year-long shelf life. The processed meat would be distributed nationwide through retail shop chains and super markets.
The company had retail outlets, Meat One and Khaas, in Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad, catering to socio-economic classes (SEC) A and B. Since 9 per cent of the population of Pakistan fell under SEC A segment and 12 per cent under SEC B classification, the total local market size for Meat One and Khaas was estimated to be 649.69 million kg (Table 2). Al Shaheer planned to capitalize on this huge market by opening retail shops at prominent locations throughout the country. Part of the IPO proceeds were to be used to open thirty-five retail outlets and store-within-stores under the brand names of Meat One and Khaas.
The remaining PKR 294.5 million of the IPO proceeds were to be used to fulfil the short-term working capital requirements of the company. The lack of working capital had severely restricted the operations of the company. According to Ali, Al Shaheer needed liquidity to pay its creditors and make room for more credit purchases.
Local Market Size for Meat One and Khaas
Al Shaheer IPO Execution 8
Exhibit 6 provides the phase-wise outline of Al Shaheer Corporation IPO process. The decision to go public was initially made in 2013. However, the company decided to streamline its business segments and align its corporate structure prior to initiating the formal IPO process in December 2014. The process started with the appointment of consultants, auditors and bankers for the issue and development of a financial model with five-year projections. AKDS and NCL were mandated by Al Shaheer as the joint lead managers and joint book runners to the issue. Based on the advice of investment bankers, Al Shaheer brought high-profile professionals on their board as independent directors to meet the regulatory requirements and to benefit from their expertise. The financial results for 31 December 2014 were audited by the audit firm, Ernst & Young Ford Rhodes Sidat Hyder & Co.
After the preparatory work was done in meeting the regulatory requirements, Al Shaheer proceeded to file the registration application with the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP). The company then began collecting other required information to prepare the offering prospectus, conducting the company valuation, and establishing a floor price for the issue. After the preparation of the Preliminary Prospectus or Red Herring, Al Shaheer obtained approval of the SECP for the issue, circulation, and publication of the prospectus. The prospectus was cleared by all three exchanges, that is, the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE), the Lahore Stock Exchange (LSE) and the Islamabad Stock Exchange (ISE)—and an application was submitted for listing. The prospectus signed by authorized signatories was also filed with the registrar of the companies and the companies’ registration office (CRO), along with the letter of the auditors, written confirmation of legal advisors and bankers, and written consents of the directors, the chief executive officer, and the company secretary of Al Shaheer.
Al Shaheer had to follow a strict timeline in preparing the offering documents so that the issue was ready for the book-building process in time. The preliminary prospectus was used to market the issue. Presentations, meetings and road shows were conducted by the lead managers and book runners to promote the issue. A total of 18,750,000 ordinary shares, at the floor price of PKR 43 per share, were to be offered to institutional investors and high net worth individuals (HNWI) from 10 June 2015 to 11 June 2015. The minimum bid size of PKR 1,000,000 was required for HNWIs to participate in the book-building process. The investors could place a limit bid or a step bid. Limit bid was a bid at the limit price, that is, the maximum price an investor was willing to pay for a specified number of shares whereas a step bid was a series of limit bids at increasing prices. An order book of the bids collected from these investors would be maintained by the book runners and the strike price would be determined through the Dutch auction method. This book-building portion of the issue would be underwritten by book runners to the issue within two working days of the closing of the bidding period.
The next step would be the general public offering. The underwriting agreements for the public portion would be finalized within ten working days from the closing of the bidding period and the Final Prospectus would be published within seventeen working days of the closing of the bidding period. A total of 6,250,000 ordinary shares of Al Shaheer Corporation would be offered to the general public and the subscription period of these shares would be within seven and thirty days from the publication of the final prospectus. The estimated issuance cost of the offering was over PKR 63 million (Exhibit 7).
Competition, Outlook and Risks
Hassan Khan, a food sector research analyst at Al Meezan Investment Management, evaluated the prevailing situation of the formal meat industry in Pakistan. The competition in the export segment was growing with fourteen players operating in the market, leaving Al Shaheer with a market share of 16 per cent (Hussain, 2015). Ali was also concerned that the export sales were primarily to the Middle East which implied a significant concentration risk and there was need to diversify its export markets. Kamran Khalili, the CEO of Al Shaheer, acknowledged the intensifying competition in the export segment but remained optimistic about the future of his company. He remarked (Business Recorder, 2015b):
This market is so huge that one can comfortably retain a decent market share even if there are as many as 50 players competing against each other.
The government had announced a tax holiday for four years to new halal meat producers, setting up their facilities and acquiring halal certification by December 2016 (Ali, 2015). Benefiting from the tax holiday, Fauji Meat Limited, a meat subsidiary of Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Limited (FFBL), could become a strong competitor of Al Shaheer.
Ali had found that Al Shaheer was operating significantly below its full capacity. The daily slaughtering capacity of Al Shaheer was 60 tons of beef and 80 tons of mutton, whereas the actual capacity utilization, in 2014, stood at 24 tons of beef and 6 tons of mutton (Al Shaheer Corporation Limited Preliminary Prospectus, 2015). Another concern of Ali was the poultry business in Pakistan. ‘Engro Foods pilot meat project had failed leading to significant book losses,’ Ali cautioned. On the positive side, Pakistan was the third largest consumer of goat meat and ninth largest beef eating nation in the world (Hussain, 2015). Al Shaheer had immense potential to cater to the local demand along with tapping into the global halal meat market. The company had recently received a go ahead for exports to Egypt and was exploring business opportunities in Iraq and China to broaden its clientele base. On the local front, Al Shaheer intended to expand its retail network. While analyzing the financial data of Al Shaheer, Ali realized that Meat One offered higher margins than export sales. However, the outlets needed good traffic flow and time to break even.
Valuing the IPO
Hassan extracted the financial data from the preliminary prospectus and gathered other relevant information from various sources to assess the investment opportunity (Exhibit 8). As a first step, the research team had to confirm that Al Shaheer met the Shariah criteria of Al Meezan (Exhibit 9). His research team also gathered multiples data on selected food sector companies for relative valuation (Exhibit 10). The real challenge was coming up with realistic base-case assumptions to project cash flows and value the enterprise.
Based on their analysis, the research team came up with some key assumptions to be used in determining the target stock price of Al Shaheer. They used a risk-free rate of 8.2 per cent 9 and the market risk premium of 6 per cent at the time. In the debt market, Al Shaheer faced borrowing cost of about 16 per cent with target debt to total value ratio of 36 per cent. A beta of 1 was used for Al Shaheer by the research team in estimating the cost of equity capital. The team arrived at the forecasted sales and margins as indicated in Table 3 for the five years (2016–2020) as the base-case values. The revenue projections implied a significant growth over the next five years and then tapering down to the long-term growth rate of about 4–5 per cent. The tax rate for the next four years (2016–2019) was assumed to be zero because of the tax holiday announced by the government over the next four years. However, 2020 onwards, an effective tax rate in the range of 10–20 per cent could be assumed after adjusting for subsidies and tax rebate on exports. The capital expenditure and working capital requirements were to be met according to the proposed year-on-year projected needs of the company from the IPO proceeds. Depreciation was assumed at 10 per cent of the net non-current assets at the end of each year. The company was not expected to pay out dividends during the next five years. Its focus would be to consolidate the business through expansion and retain any surplus cash in the business.
Forecasted Sales and Margins
The analyst report on the IPO was fairly comprehensive, highlighting the key value drivers, risks faced by the company, and indicative prices based on the two commonly used approaches to price IPO shares, namely market multiples and DCF. Since the two methods indicated significantly different prices for the IPO, Asad had asked you to conduct an independent analysis and valuation of Al Shaheer stock over the weekend and share your findings with him early Monday morning. Asad had indicated to you that MIF could allocate a significant amount to the IPO, depending upon the upside potential of the opportunity. He had also given you an extract from the Al Shaheer bidding form (Exhibit 11) to pencil in your suggestive bid type and quantity of shares at the bid price(s) based on the available information and your analysis. You should be ready to present your findings and defend your position convincingly when you meet Asad on Monday.
Details of IPOs in Pakistan


Utilization of IPO Proceeds by Al Shaheer Corporation
Cost Breakup of Poultry and Meat Processing Plant
Cost of Retail Network Expansion
aCosts to be spread evenly over five years (2016 to 2020).
bUtilized after the start of commercial production, that is, in 2018.
Al Shaheer’s Poultry Business—Project Milestones

Estimated IPO Expenses of Al Shaheer Corporation
Al Shaheer Corporation Limited—Condensed Financial Statements and Ratios
Financial Ratios
Shariah Screening Criteria of Al Meezan Investment Limited
Peer Group Data
Extracted from Al Shaheer Bidding Form
Important Instructions:
Bids should be placed for a minimum amount of Any bid received below the floor price will not be accepted by the Joint Book Runners.
