Abstract
Pakistan in National and Regional Change is a valuable read for students and observers of contemporary Pakistan. The special issue comprises six articles from scholars across disciplines and foci and covers relevant and hot-button issues facing Pakistan today; ranging from the virtual diplomatic stand-off with the United States (US) to the plight of minorities and the economic effects of the 2010 floods. Beset by a plethora of crises and debates, Pakistan is a challenging country to understand and any analysis must go beyond the apparent discussions. The contributors attempt to capture and understand this complexity in a manner that holds the readers’ attention, despite some rough edges. The book is a useful read for keen observers of the country and for those who wish to come up to date with more contemporary developments, particularly since the events of 11 September 2001.
In the first chapter, Joshua T. White examines, at length, the connotations of the term ‘moderate’ in Pakistani political discourse, and unpacks layers of inherent contradictions and debates underlying this term. In the context of rising militancy, a perceived sense of apathy from the ‘moderate’ silent majority appears baffling to observers, within and outside Pakistan. This becomes the starting point for White to examine the complexity in defining what qualifies as a moderate view and by extension, who is a moderate? White outlines alternate barometers that have been employed to identify political moderation. Following thorough examination, White concludes that each of the measures is limited in encapsulating moderation. For instance, while Barelvi Sunni traditions have a long history of tolerance and reasoning, White points out that its adherent groups overlooked the assassination of Salman Taseer, the Governor of Punjab, who sought to reform Pakistan’s controversial blasphemy laws. Similarly, the Islamist religious parties under the banner of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), while long perceived as obscurantist, exercised a moderating influence on more extremist elements when they were in power. White argues that lesser attention has been paid to how participating in the democratic process (itself a key requirement in several moderation checklists), in fact, makes parties such as the MMA vested in moderation rather than espousing more vigilante action. He concludes by calling for a fine-grain approach to defining moderation, one that is specific to the particular dispute and relative to the community in which it is situated.
Shaun Gregory examines, in detail, the issues confronting religious minorities, particularly Christians in Pakistan. Citing the high-profile assassinations of two prominent politicians, Salman Taseer and Shehbaz Bhatti, over their support of reform in the country’s blasphemy laws, Gregory delves into the historical, socio-legal and political developments that have shaped minority rights and experience in Pakistan. He argues that the commitment Pakistan made to a secular state at its inception (albeit never intended to cede as much space as to allow any challenge to Islamic dominance) has steadily eroded. In more recent times, the rise of militant groups, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA), has further led to persecution and has created a sense of insecurity among the Christians. In sum, Gregory fears that the wave of radicalization and conservatism is strengthening as the space for minorities within the Pakistani mainstream shrinks.
Alexander Evans focuses on the persistence of patronage networks and their continuing importance in Pakistani politics. He examines the role of patrimonialism, distinct from feudalism, in that patrimonial networks ‘can alter and be rearranged’ (p. 42) in the matters of the state. He underscores the ability of patrimonial networks to reform themselves over time and argues this inherent mutability has ensured the dependence of political parties on patronage networks. That the inertia implied by the continuity of such patrimonialism, in fact, curtails wider social justice is acknowledged only in passing by the author. The author’s focus remains on emphasizing the structural continuity and persistent nature of patronage networks, rather than also examining nascent developments that may fundamentally challenge the status quo, such as the electronic media boom or a perceptible decline in middle-class political apathy.
In Chapter 5, Robert Looney assesses the economic impact of the massive flooding that beset the nation in 2010–2011. Looney surveys secondary sources to provide an overview of direct and indirect costs of the floods; while the former refer to the death, injury and destruction caused by direct exposure to the floods, indirect costs are identified so as to include income losses, increases in expenditure and curtailed production that arise as a result of the direct costs. He goes on to assess short and long-term impacts of the floods, reminding the reader of the difficulties that the Pakistan economy faced even before the onset of the floods (the long-standing, low tax-to-gross domestic product [GDP] ratio, for one). The overview of flooding impact on the productive sectors is detailed and insightful; on fiscal and monetary policy effects, the review is even-handed. However, the brief analysis of the impact of the floods on poverty is short on causal evidence and offers no nuance of the mechanisms through which flooding may have exacerbated poverty. On refugees, the review fails to distinguish distress-induced and forced migration from longer-term trajectories of migration to Karachi and Lahore, for instance. Surprisingly, the specific, large-scale, donor-funded relief and reconstruction programmes, as well as the much discussed expansion of religious charities, finds no mention. Finally, towards the end of the chapter, the author attempts to link the post-flood economic scenario with the Planning Commission’s New Growth Framework for Pakistan. The link with the floods, however, remains unclear, making the section appear more as a deliberate afterthought, as does the assertion that its central thrust, promoting entrepreneurship, rather than aid dependence ‘holds out hope’ (p. 68).
In Chapter 6, Christine Fair reviews the evolution of the US–Pakistan relationship over the course of the tumultuous decade and more since 9/11. Fair begins by stating upfront the disconnect between the high levels of military investment by the US in Pakistan (to the tune of US$ 21 billion over the decade) and the deep anti-American sentiment on the streets of Pakistan. She argues that a long-standing difference in strategic vision, patched over in times of crises because of more immediate shared concerns, lies at the heart of the severe impasse that has come to be. Pakistan’s cooperation with the US, starting with the use of its air bases and land routes and efforts to contain terrorist groups, soon was held hostage to misgivings between the two countries. Fair argues that the US influence over the region is limited and that enlisting Pakistan’s commitment to combat Islamist extremism would not have been possible whilst simultaneously promoting Indian geostrategic and economic interests. As a result, neither country remains satisfied with the other and suspicions of Pakistan’s intent to contain extremism, and not only its capacity to strike, have been questioned. Fair prophesizes that Pakistan’s domestic security situation will remain intractable due to Pakistan’s continuing focus on the Indian threat and the likelihood of an intensified proxy war in Afghanistan after 2014.
In the final chapter, Lisa Curtis examines the repercussions of the deteriorating US–Pakistan diplomatic relationship on Pakistan’s renewed efforts to engage with its neighbourhood. She argues that while Pakistan has pursued China with greater vigour, based on a shared interest to counter both India and the US, in the aftermath of worsening ties with the latter, China continues to have its own concerns about Pakistan’s ability to rein in terror groups. Furthermore, it plays a limited role in military and other aid and is unlikely to become a strong counter to the US; Pakistan will continue to depend on the US cooperation. Curtis also provides a good overview of calculations in the bilateral relationships between Pakistan and Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and Afghanistan, covering economic interests, nuclear cooperation and security concerns. The wider reaching out could usher in greater economic prosperity, even as terrorism remains a challenge, unless China and Saudi Arabia are able to use their leverage towards this end. Curtis highlights key political developments in recent history that indicate the direction of Pakistan’s foreign policy in the region. Regrettably, the latter parts of the chapter are addressed explicitly to the US national interests (‘The US needs to…’, p. 95) and not as much to the more Pak-focused or neutral reader.
The issue could do with a coherent conclusion, drawing on the constituent chapters to provide a bigger-picture understanding of the important questions facing Pakistan in the years to come. Certain chapters could benefit from greater substantiation of arguments with relevant data. In some cases, one feels that the collection of chapters does not clearly identify its intended audience. Pakistan stands at the crossroads of yet another political watershed with the 2014 drawdown of the US troops in Afghanistan. This, combined with several other internal and external complexities, means that it would only be naive not to expect potentially far-reaching and important consequences on the nation’s politics, economics and security situation. Pakistan in National and Regional Change is a timely and useful reference for Pakistan scholars, especially those who seek to examine the recent past as well as those looking towards the near future.