This article analyzes the prospects for agriculture in Central Asia up till 2050 and makes recommendations about what is needed to achieve the aspirational vision. Geography and climate favor two major export crops, cotton in the south and wheat in the north, but a pressing issue is the appropriate amount of area to be devoted to these crops and how to produce them efficiently; the answer will change as technological improvements are adopted, wages increase, and capital is substituted for labor, and as the water situation is affected by climate change and other factors. The traditional livestock sector that shrank drastically after 1991 could revive as incomes increase and diets change, and niche products could also be developed. The article is structured around these four subsectors (cotton, wheat, livestock, and niche products), but also recognizes the influence of national policies toward land, water, and rural development.
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