Abstract
Dear Readers,
Welcome to this special issue of the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies. I write both to introduce this journal and to announce that this will be last editorial from myself and our managing editor, Anil Sood. After this issue, SAGE Publishing will be taking over full production of this journal and will appoint a new Editor and Managing Editor. We feel this is the right direction for the journal and look forward to seeing how SAGE will evolve the journal in the coming years.
Given this notable change in the journal, we have assembled for this issue an interesting and diverse selection of articles which, in both micro and macro ways, I believe address some of the key challenges and issues facing world in the coming decade. I should note as well that all of these articles, save for the one by Marco Ferroni and Yuan Zhou, were also presented at the most recent Global Meeting of the Emerging Markets Forum in October 2017 in Washington, DC. There was fascinating and introspective discussion on each of these issues. As such, Anil Sood and I are happy to share them all with our readers, so that it may provoke further discussion beyond Washington on these pressing concerns.
Our first article, though, is of a different nature, addressing the private sector’s role in India’s agricultural transformation. Authored by the now-former Executive Director of the Syngenta Foundation, Marco Ferroni, and Head of Research and Policy Analysis at the Foundation, Yuan Zhou, this article argues that successful agricultural growth and transformations are inconceivable without a dynamic private sector serving and driving agriculture, farming and agri-food value chains, and analyzes this in the case of India. While written as a case study on the Indian economy and how the Indian governments has and can create enabling, regulatory, and institutional support, it has much wider implications for rural development. As much of the focus in emerging economies today is on industrialization and urbanization, it is important to remember that still more than half the population of low- and middleincome countries lives in rural areas and transforming their agriculture economies will be crucial to boosting growth and reducing poverty.
The next pair of articles address one of the most talked-about geopolitical development initiatives in recent memory. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), announced by President Xi Jinping in 2013, is seen by many as being the defining framework for Chinese global engagement in the coming years. Spanning over 60 countries and worth potentially trillions of dollars in investment, countries throughout Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe will all be grappling with how to approach this initiative. The first paper, which I have authored, focuses analysis on Central Asia, the initial focus of BRI when it was announced in Astana, Kazakhstan, and historic center of the Silk Road, upon which BRI is based. In this, I provide an overview of BRI, assess its implications for Central Asia, examine other potential economic relationships for Central Asia beyond China, and provide some broad ideas for Central Asian governments to be cognizant of as they begin to engage with China on BRI. Following this article, two renowned Chinese economists, Biliang Hu of Beijing Normal University and Qingzhong Pan of Tsinghua University, present a custom analysis of the development levels of all 65 BRI countries to determine the major challenges facing these countries.
Switching gears, the next set of papers look at some macro-level trends the world as a whole will face in the next decade. Claudio Loser, Jose Fajgenbaum, Harpual Alberto Kohli, and Ieva Vilkelyte, of Centennial Group International, look at an emerging discussion in demographics and macroeconomics: aging. They attempt to assess how aging societies will affect global growth prospects. According to the United Nations, the world’s population aged 65 and above will increase from 12 percent today to 16 percent in 2050, doubling the old-age dependency ratio to 25.2. These demographic shifts will almost certainly have material implications. Population aging and its dynamics will influence a number of economic variables and behavioral responses, particularly economic growth, productivity, labor force participation, consumption choice, personal savings and thus investment, and public finances. Loser, Fajgenbaum, Kohli, and Vilkelyte have made a major contribution to this discussion by making economic projections using Centennial’s global econometric model, adapted for the effects of aging, and make policy recommendations for how countries may mitigate some of the potential negative effects of these demographic shifts.
The next article, by former Deputy Director-General of the World Trade Organization Alejandro Jara, looks at the future of globalization in the context of new political realities. Jara notes that while many state that globalization is stalled, if not suffering reversals, there are, in fact, indications that international cooperation on trade issues is alive and can deliver results, provided adequate and timely leadership is exercised. He provides some well-needed optimism where pessimism often reigns, but also suggests the need for greater adaptability to the changing nature of globalization to mitigate declining public support for the phenomenon and the potential political consequences of that decline. To do this, he analyzes the drivers of globalization to better understand how to be adaptable to its changing nature.
Finally, this issue concludes with a profound examination of the threats to multilateralism, authored by the Emerging Markets Forum’s Distinguished Resident Scholar, Johannes Linn. In the wake of major global events such as Brexit and the election of US President Donald Trump, multilateralism and the multilateral institutions face serious threats. Linn outlines how these threats further hinder progress in solving global economic and social challenges such as global financial crises, growing inequality, persistent poverty, challenges to free and open trade, and risks of catastrophes like climate change. Linn not only assesses the threats faced by multilateralism and multilateral institutions but also develops some ideas on how they might be addressed. In this way, he contributes to the global efforts to develop and maintain rules-based and fair global economic and social relations, set norms and monitor their adherence, establish networks to trade in knowledge and data, and resolve conflicts in competition for global resources. I cannot think of a more fitting close to Anil’s and my final issue of the journal than addressing what may be the greatest threat to the global economy we will face going forward.
As they sparked illuminating discussions at our Forum, I too hope that these articles spark similar discussions among our readers and their respective intellectual circles. We are faced with a tumultuous world at this point in history, and we hope these articles can play a small role in cutting through the tumult to see clearly some of the most important issues policymakers must address.
Finally, on behalf of the whole GJEME team, I would like to thank all our readers for their continued support of our journal, and we look forward to seeing how it takes shape in the coming years and continues to contribute to critical policy discussions.