Abstract
Much has been written about various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hardly any global event in recent memory rivals the impact of the pandemic in scale, breadth or depth, as reflected in the sheer volume of the literature on the topic. Yet the present volume carves out a niche for itself as it explores the complex interplay, shaped by institutions, between political leadership and the citizenry, in the context of the socio-economic impact of the pandemic. Indeed, it is a hallmark of the analysis in the book that its scope is global, and the narrative while comprehensive remains focused despite an overarching, broad outlook. The wealth of literature cited in the book is another one of its strengths—this aspect will no doubt be useful and appeal especially to researchers.
The book is divided into three main parts, each consisting of two chapters, apart from a concluding chapter with lessons for the future and an epilogue.
The first part of the book provides a snapshot of past episodes of pandemics and health crises that have gripped the world throughout history, dating back from the nineteenth century (Russian flu), right down to the HIV/AIDS and Ebola crises in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. It then goes on to outline the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 on a global scale, focusing especially on the heavy toll on lives in the context of extant healthcare infrastructure. The analysis throws in stark relief how the pandemic brought to its knees different countries in the developed North as well as the developing South. In doing so, it highlights the remarkable achievement of the developing world in tackling the massive shock given comparatively meagre resources and health infrastructure.
The second part constitutes the heart of the book, wherein its central thesis is laid out in two well-researched chapters (chapters 3 and 4). To begin with, the third chapter spells out the basic framework for assessing the relationship between leaders and common citizens (‘followers’ according to the author), which is mediated by the existing set of government and private institutional arrangements (‘agents’) supporting the economy. The main argument in the framework is that for ‘success’ in dealing with a major crisis like the pandemic, it is important to have a consensual rather than conflictual relation among these three sets of players. To begin with, it is explicitly recognised that leadership itself plays a very important role and the ‘type’ of the leader—whether an authoritarian ‘strongman’ leader or a ‘collegiate’ one or ‘charismatic’ leaders providing ‘transformational’ leadership—holds the key to the nature of strategy formulated by the political class at the onset of the crises. For instance, certain political leaders did not recognise the gravity of the situation and remained in denial in the initial stages as the pandemic struck (such as President Trump of the United States), which magnified the loss of lives as it spread widely and rapidly. The gender of the leader, it is also pointed out, might make a difference, as comparative analyses provide some evidence to indicate that nations headed by female leaders (such as Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand) fared better in a number of cases in overall handling of the pandemic. Among the other points made in the framework, it is explicitly recognised that the nature of the political system, whether it is an authoritarian regime or a democracy, is also likely to make a significant difference in the interactions among leaders, agents and followers. Centralised instructions are likely to be implemented with less dissent and discussion and hence with greater alacrity in the former. Further, the extent of ‘trust’ placed by citizens in their leaders and in the effectiveness of the overall sociopolitical systems will play a crucial role in their behaviour and hence in the management of the pandemic.
The fourth chapter puts the hypothesised framework to the test against actual country experiences, by drawing on the performance of 16 leaders from the developed world, as well as from selected middle- and low-income countries from Africa, Asia and Latin America. Based on actual experience, the selected leaders are classified into five categories, viz., populist leaders who are mostly ‘showmen’; modest and pragmatic leaders; democratic and bold leaders; relatively inexperienced but well-meaning leaders and dictatorial leaders who have the advantage of working under planned systems. The top political leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, India and Brazil are classified under the first category. The inclusion of the Indian Prime Minister under this category is somewhat too dismissive of the role of leadership in the Indian story. After all, India’s exceptional performance with respect to tracing and tracking of Covid cases, the orderly conduct of agencies and of the generally large, diverse and often unruly public in respecting the nationwide lockdown, high vaccination rates, and so on, all bear testimony, inter alia, to the strong leadership and trust of the general public in the political leadership. Germany and South Korea are placed in the second category of pragmatic leadership, while New Zealand, France and South Africa are seen as examples of bold, democratic leadership. Vietnam and China are cited as examples of dictatorial leadership, while Canada, Italy and Spain are seen to have been under relatively inexperienced leaders.
The role of public and private institutional arrangements in these countries is also meticulously examined by the author in this chapter, along with the role of the citizenry. In particular, the role of public functionaries in carrying out the diktat of the political establishment is closely examined, alongside that of strong private players such as big pharma, social networks, NGOs and public–private partnerships. So far as the role of the public is concerned, the author’s analysis leads to the conclusion that in part at least, reasons for the failure of the public to uphold Covid-related restrictions imposed by the state can be traced to shortcomings in the conduct of the state itself. For instance, mixed messaging from the state regarding individual freedom vis-à-vis restrictions, clear-cut science-based policies vis-à-vis other considerations could have contributed to confusion and hence lack of clarity regarding the need to observe behavioural restrictions imposed by the state. Such government failures merely add to the complexity of the problem, given the diversity of ‘types’ within the public, especially with regard to their attitude towards and capacity to bear risk.
The third part of the book comprising the final two chapters (wherein chapter 5 is co-written with Colin Mackerras) considers the prospects for and hindrances to global cooperation to combat large-scale, all-pervasive threats like COVID-19. The author examines this question in the context of the strained Sino-US relations, the questions that were raised about the role of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the long drawn-out negotiations that ruled the distribution of vaccines among countries (especially in the global North and South), in the wake of the pandemic. An extremely nuanced analysis is carried out in this context regarding the role of (often strident) nationalism vis-à-vis bilateral and multilateral forces, in a world where globalisation is being called into question. The conflicting forces governing interaction between nations in the context of the pandemic came to the fore as never before, on the vaccine question! The restriction on vaccine exports by nations and the tendency to put ‘my citizens first’, especially among the developed nations in the North, at the expense of developing nations, are brought out succinctly in the discussion in this part of the volume.
In the penultimate chapters, the author reviews cross-country engagements and efforts to address the pandemic and focuses especially on the role of the WHO. This part is rich in details with respect to international arrangements and initiatives that have been in place, often at the behest of the G20, and the role of multilateral organisations such as the WHO, the United Nations, the World Bank, the IMF, to name a few. The book ends with an update on the status of COVID-19 and related restrictions in China, as it reflects on the road ahead for the country and the world at large.
A ‘globalist’ spirit pervades the analysis in this book. The author is concerned that countries’ responses in dealing with a pandemic are limited by institutional capacities. Further, behavioural responses of the citizenry are circumscribed by their degree of trust in systemic parameters. In such situations, cross-border exchanges can lead to win-win situations by transcending domestic constraints and providing real-time lessons for upscaling. The basic message reverberating throughout is that a pandemic affecting the entire world, both developed and developing countries, calls for large-scale cooperation between countries with a strong and coordinating role for multilateral agencies.