Abstract
Drivers of Long-term Insecurity and Instability in Pakistan: Urbanization provides a brief yet vivid examination of the key trends in the country’s urbanization and their potential implications on its political and internal security challenges, from a global perspective.
The book comprises six chapters. Chapter 1 outlines the project background and study methodology. It states that urbanization has significantly changed Pakistan’s political landscape; however, there is a lack of information on the topic, leading to this study by the RAND Corporation. The research question is: ‘What are the most salient observations about Pakistan’s urbanization, in relation to the nation’s electoral politics, likelihood of governmental stability or reform, and security challenges directed at both domestic and global targets?’ The work specifically studies three provincial capital cities: Karachi, Lahore and Quetta. It relies on published data sets on population, linguistic distribution, voting behaviour, literacy and citizen’s perceptions of the economic situation for answering the sole research question.
Chapter 2 highlights a steady increase in the country’s urban population, fuelled by natural increase, rural to urban migration and the influx of Afghan refugees in the past four decades. It shows that a majority of the urban population is concentrated in 10 large cities, with only two of them, Karachi and Lahore, housing nearly half of all the urbanites. It contends that the share of urban population is estimated around 40 (official) to 50 per cent (unofficial) 1 of the total population, but the urban ‘sphere of influence’ reaches beyond urban boundaries, into the rural areas, due to the continuous ties of urban migrants with their ancestral villages. Further, Pakistanis, who work mostly in Gulf countries, make a ‘de facto Pakistani city abroad’ with a considerable ‘urban’ influence on the country’s economic, ideological and political thinking. As a result, the urban areas are gaining increased importance in a rural-dominated country. By providing greater economic opportunities and relatively better quality of life, Pakistani cities have kept millions out of poverty. They also provide greater information on day-to-day events and facilitate the easy communication of ideas between masses. Major cities, like Karachi, house economically, politically and intellectually influential and ethnically heterogeneous population, which is politically more active and has a greater interest in the country’s governance. However, the urban areas, particularly the larger cities, have generally failed to live up to the expectations of most of their residents. The observation is supported by the data from various studies which highlight a general negative shift in perception about economic welfare among urban residents over time.
Chapters 3 and 4 examine the current and future political orientation of the country. Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) is the ruling party with its core constituency of ethnic Punjabis, mostly residing in the largest province of Punjab. Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) is the second leading party in the country and the main party of Sindhi speakers. The province of Sindh and the rural areas of Punjab are its main support areas which are likely to remain so in the future. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has emerged as the third force who is quite vociferous against the PMLN and PPP. However, regardless of its popularity among the young Pakistanis, it has a shallow vote bank capable of creating the state government only in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), previously known as Mohajir Qaumi Movement, is the next major political party which represents the ethnic Urdu-speaking Mohajir community. However, there has been a stagnation of population growth among the Mohajirs and the demographic changes in its constituency are less likely to expand the support base of MQM any further. A couple of fundamentalist parties, like Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), have some support in the country; however, they are not dominant power players in the country’s political scenario. Urbanization and near-term demographic trends are not likely to empower these Islamist parties.
The first case study is the city of Karachi which is the largest city besides being the economic backbone of Pakistan. Its ethnic and sectarian heterogeneity shapes its political outcomes. MQM shares the political power in the metropolis with PPP. However, the increasing inflow of Pashtun migrants has challenged the Mohajir–Sindhi balance in the metropolis, leading to a violent struggle for power between the political parties. The second case study is the city of Lahore which is the stronghold of PMLN and it is likely to remain so as the voters are somewhat satisfied with the party. The third case study is the city of Quetta that represents all the small- and medium-sized cities of the country. A considerable share of its current population consists of internally displaced Pashtuns and Punjabis. The city’s evolving ethnic mix has caused polarization in the political space along sectarian lines that makes its future extremely unpredictable.
Chapter 5 is the most important of all. It provides five unique insights into the effect of urbanization on the political and security scenarios in the country. First, it argues that urbanization may fuel anti-American rather than anti-Western sentiments. It supports the argument with the view of the occurrence of Muslim-sensitive events around the world, such as blasphemous videos over the Internet or the role of the US in counterterrorism in the Middle East. These have become more noticeable in urban areas due to higher access to information, which often results in mass protests against the local government or foreign countries. Second, the book states that urbanization may fuel radical transnational Islamist groups in the country. It argues that the cities have hosted and harboured the imported and less moderate forms of Islam, which have instigated radical religious groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba. This process has affected Quetta the most, where a significant share of marginalized Shia population, the Hazara Community, resides and continues to face the brunt of sectarian conflicts. Third, the chapter asserts that increasing urbanization is likely to change the dynamics of counterterrorism in the country. It points out that the tactical ‘migration’ of terrorist groups from isolated and sparsely populated rural locations to the well-connected and dense settlements makes cities a potential site for religious or ethnic unrest. Cities have become a preferred destination for extremists as they offer safer hideouts, large human capital and a number of high-profile targets such as airports and other military instalments. As a result, the governments would also need to change their counterterrorism and security strategies with the increasing urbanization in the country. Fourth, it states that the demographic shifts are likely to make Karachi a potential site for increased terrorism and anti-Western activities. The existing political violence and insecurity in the city is likely to expand in the future as the linguistic and ideological heterogeneity will continue to provide safe havens to extremist groups. Lastly, on a more positive note, it contends that, urbanization is likely to increase the popular demand for political reforms in the country. Urban residents are less likely to continuously bear the negative outcomes of poor governance and instability. Urbanization may increase the demands for greater accountability from political leaders and improved service delivery that will force the political parties to be more transparent and clean on the country’s social, economic and political viewpoints.
The book provides an interesting and a thought-provoking account of how urbanization is likely to affect the country’s political and security dynamics but falls significantly short in fully teasing out the links between the two vital issues. The work is largely based on literature review, with a ‘foreign’ perspective, which lacks the desired support for local understandings and a solid empirical evidence. For example, the work should have utilized publically available security data sets, such as Global Terrorism Database or the South Asia Terrorism Portal, to examine how terrorism has evolved in the urban centres over time. Similarly, a review of changes in urban politics and urban security measures, such as closed-circuit television installations and security checkpoints, remains missing in this book. More surprisingly, the work completely overlooks the city of Peshawar in this thought-provoking debate. Peshawar has been in the forefront of urbanization and security turmoil in the country. It has been a top destination of refugees, internally displaced population and extremists, since the past three decades. At the same time, the economy and citizens of Peshawar have borne the worst of impacts of extremism in the country. Inclusion of Peshawar would have given this work more depth and potentially unique and important insights.
Despite a clear lack of a ‘new’ or empirical evidence and a narrower focus on fewer urban centres, the work remains useful reading for people with urban, social, political and security interests in the Pakistani and wider Asian contexts. Overall, the book is easy to understand and a welcome read for experts and general public alike.
