Demographic Impact on Environment - A Case Study Focussing on CO 2 Emission in China

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission derived from economic activities results primarily from the fossil fuels consumed. The variety of fossil fuels used, the degree of efficient consumption of energy, economic growth and national population size determine the total amount of CO₂ emission in a country. Considering its population size as well as its potential for economic development, China is expected to play a key role in the global warming issue in concert with other industrialized Asian countries, including Japan.

In the present study, the impact of population increase on total CO₂ emission in China during the period 1982-1990 was analyzed. During the study period, population increase and CO₂ emission per capita were 21 per cent and 70 per cent, respectively. In terms of population increase by region, some provinces in the inland areas and megacities, like Shanghai and Beijing, contributed the highest figures. To cope with high fertility in the inland areas as well as massive population inflow into the urban areas simultaneously, increasing the number of medium-sized cities to be located in the inland areas could be a solution.

For CO₂ emission per capita, the figures for the North-Eastcrn provinces and South-Eastern provinces along the coast are remarkable. The estimate of total emission of CO₂ by 2010 is 1.6 million tons, a 74 per cent increase from 1992. Energy transition is the key to the stabilization of CO₂ emission in China.