Objective: The purpose of this study was to (a) evaluate the relative effectiveness of wraparound services versus conventional services for juvenile delinquent youth and (b) create a predictive model that would assist the juvenile court system in correctly identifying youth at greatest risk of reoffending. Method: The study employed a pretest/posttest, control group design, with 6-, 12-, and 18-month follow-up assessments, of 141 youth court-ordered into community-based treatment programs for delinquent youth. Results: Analysis indicated that few of the variables studied differentiated between wraparound services recipients and conventional service recipients. However, a logistic regression model was developed that correctly predicted recidivism for 79% of the sample at the 6-month follow-up assessment (chi-square = 27.211, df =6, p = .0001) and 78% of the sample at the 18-month follow-up assessment (chi-square = 16.453, df =8, p = .036). Conclusions: Implications of the findings for improving community-based juvenile diversion programs for delinquent youth were explored and discussed.
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