Does Climate Variability Influence Internal Migration Flows in Senegal? An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the total effect of climate variability on interregional migration flows in Senegal. We match regional climate data at origin, represented by normalised rainfall and normalised temperatures (maximum and minimum), with regional migration flow data from Senegal’s Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie (ANSD) censuses to construct a panel database covering the five-yearly internal migration waves of 1976, 1988, 2001 and 2013. Using a gravity equation model where migration flows are explained by measures of climatic variability at origin, controlled for geographical, socioeconomic and demographic factors traditionally identified in the literature. Our results show that only negative precipitation anomalies at the origin area act as a push factor and accelerate emigration. In the predominantly agricultural regions, rainfall deficits appear, alongside traditional socioeconomic variables, as an additional significant factor shaping mobility across the country.

Keywords

climate variability internal migration adapation strategy panel data gravity model Senegal

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Afifi

(2011). Economic or environmental migration? The push factors in Niger. International Migration, 49(s1), 95–124. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2435.2010.00644.x

Afifi

Warner

(2008). The impact of environmental degradation on migration flows across countries. (UNU-EHS Working Paper No. 5).

Agence Nationale de Statistique et de la Démographie (ANSD) . (2011). Situation économique et sociale du Sénégal en 2011 ». Ministère de l’Économie et des Finances.

Agence Nationale de Statistique et de la Démographie (ANSD) . (2013). Recensement général de la population et de l’habitat, de l’agriculture et de l’élevage (RGPHAE). Rapport définitif, UNFPA, USAID.

Anderson

J. E.

(2011). The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics, 3(1), 133–160. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-111809-125114

ANSD (2013). Enquête suivie de la pauvreté au Sénégal II-2011, version finale février 2013. https://www.ansd.sn/sites/default/files/2022-11/Rapport_ESPS-2011.pdf

Attané

A. A.

Oumarou

Soumaré

M. A.

(2015). Quand la nature nous parle. Une analyse comparée des représentations des changements climatiques et environnementaux. In: Les sociétés rurales face aux changements climatiques et environnementaux en Afrique de l’Ouest (pp. 111–128). IRD. Available on: https://file:///C:/Users/diallala/Desktop/senegal-country-situation-assessment.pdf consulté le 03/02/2017.

Austin

P. M.

(1987). Relation between measured radar reflectivity and surface rainfall. Monthly Weather Review, 115(5), 1053–1070. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1053:rbmrra>2.0.co;2

Barrios

Bertinelli

Strobl

(2006). Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Urban Economics, 60(3), 357–371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2006.04.005

10.

Bassett

Turner

(2007). Sudden shift or migratory drift? Human Ecology, 35(1), 33–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-006-9067-4

11.

Beine

Bertoli

Fernández‐Huertas Moraga

(2016). A practitioners’ guide to gravity models of international migration. The World Economy, 39(4), 496–512. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12265

12.

Beine

Jeusette

(2021). A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration. Journal of Demographic Economics, 87(3), 293–344. https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2019.22

13.

Beine

Parsons

(2015). Climatic factors as determinants of international migration. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 117(2), 723–767. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12098

14.

Bertoli

Fernández-Huertas Moraga

(2013). Multilateral resistance to migration. Journal of Development Economics, 102, 79–100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.12.001

15.

Beyer

R. M.

Schewe

Lotze-Campen

(2022). Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 9(1), 56–110. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01067-x

16.

Black

(2001) Environmental refugees: myth or reality? (Vol. 34): UNHCR.

17.

Bohra-Mishra

Oppenheimer

Hsiang

S. M.

(2014). Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111(27), 9780–9785. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1317166111

18.

Bonnassieux

Gangneron

(2015). Rôle des migrations saisonnières et pluriannuelles dans la réduction de la vulnérabilité. Les communes de Hombori et Djougou. In : Les sociétés rurales face aux changements climatiques et environnementaux en Afrique de l’Ouest (pp. 269–313). IRD.

19.

Cattaneo

Peri

(2016). The migration response to increasing temperatures. Journal of Development Economics, 122, 127–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2016.05.004

20.

Ciach

G. J.

(2003). Local random errors in tipping-bucket rain gauge measurements. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 20(5), 752–759. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2003)20<752:lreitb>2.0.co;2

21.

Cissé

Zorom

Barbier

Maiga

A. Y.

(2010). Les migrations, une stratégie d’adaptation a la variabilité climatique en zones sahéliennes. Revue de Géographie du Laboratoire Leidi.

22.

Colin Cameron

Miller

D. L.

(2015). A practitioner’s guide to cluster-robust inference. Journal of Human Resources, 50(2), 317–372. https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.317

23.

Coniglio

N. D.

Pesce

(2015). Climate variability and international migration: An empirical analysis. Environment and Development Economics, 20(4), 434–468. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x14000722

24.

Coulibaly

Vaugelade

(1981, December). Impact de la Sécheresse 1969–1974 sur les Migrations en Haute-Volta. In In international population Conference, Manila.

25.

CSAO-CILSS . (2013). Profil sécurité alimentaire au Sénégal (pp. 1–31). MEEF/UE.

26.

Dallmann

Millock

(2017). Climate variability and interstate migration in India. CESifo Economic Studies, 63(4), 560–594. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifx014

27.

Deaton

(1985). Panel data from time series of cross-sections. Journal of Econometrics, 30(1–2), 109–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(85)90134-4

28.

Defrance

Delesalle

Gubert

(2020). Is Migration Drought-induced in Mali? An Empirical Analysis Using Panel Data on Malian Localities Over the 1987-2009 Period (No. UCL-Université Catholique de Louvain). Institut de recherche économiques et sociales.

29.

de Haas

(2010). Migration and development: A theoretical perspective. International migration.

30.

Dell

Jones

B. F.

Olken

B. A.

(2014). What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature. Journal of Economic Literature, 52(3), 740–798. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.3.740

31.

de Sherbinin

Grace

McDermid

van der Geest

Puma

M. J.

Bell

(2022). Migration theory in climate mobility research. Frontiers in Climate, 4, 882343. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.882343

32.

Drabo

Mbaye

L. M.

(2015). Natural disasters, migration and education: An empirical analysis in developing countries. Environment and Development Economics, 20(6), 767–796. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x14000606

33.

Dubois

J. P.

(1974). Les Serer et la question des Terres Neuves au Sénégal. Centre ORSTOM de Dakar.

34.

Dustmann

Okatenko

(2014). Out-migration, wealth constraints, and the quality of local amenities. Journal of Development Economics, 110, 52–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.05.008

35.

EACH-FOR . (2009). Environmental Change and forced migration scenarios, final activity report, FP6. https://www.each-for.eu

36.

FAO . (2013). Statistical Yearbook. World food and agriculture. FAO.

37.

FAO/WHO Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives. Meeting, & World Health Organization . (2010) Evaluation of Certain Food Additives: Seventy-first Report of the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (Vol. 71). World Health Organization.

38.

Feng

Krueger

A. B.

Oppenheimer

(2010). Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(32), 14257–14262. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1002632107

39.

Findley

S. E.

(1994). Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983–1985 drought. The International migration review, 28(3), 539–553.

40.

FORESIGHT . (2011). Migration and global environmental change: Future challenge and opportunities. Final project report. The Government Office for Science.

41.

Gastineau

Gibigaye

Kosmowski

Adjamagbo

Hougbégnon

(2015). Populations rurales face aux aléas environnementaux. Les sociétés rurales face aux changements climatiques et environnementaux en. Afrique de, l’Ouest,, 233–348.

42.

Gaye

A. T.

H. M.

Sakho-Djimbira

Fall

M. S.

Ndiaye

(2015). Sénégal: Revue du contexte socioéconomique, politique et environnemental. Rapport de l’ied Afrique.

43.

Gemenne

Blocher

(2017). How can migration serve adaptation to climate change? Challenges to fleshing out a policy ideal. The Geographical Journal, 183(4), 336–347. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12205

44.

Gourley

J. J.

Hong

Flamig

Z. L.

Wang

(2010). Intercomparison of rainfall estimates from radar, satellite, gauge, and combinations for a season of record rainfall. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 49(3), 437–452. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jamc2302.1

45.

Gray

Mueller

(2012). Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World Development, 40(1), 134–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.05.023

46.

Gray

Wise

(2016). Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration. Climatic Change, 135(3), 555–568. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1592-y

47.

Gray

C. L.

(2009). Environment, land, and rural outmigration in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. World Development, 37(2), 457–468. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.05.004

48.

Gray

C. L.

Mueller

(2012). Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(16), 6000–6005. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1115944109

49.

Gujarati

D. N.

(2004). Econométrie. De Boeck Superieur.

50.

Harouna

(2008). Changement climatqiue, démographie et migration au Niger, Magasine trimestriel d’informations générales n° 007.

51.

Henry

Schoumaker

Beauchemin

(2004). The impact of rainfall on the first out- migration: A multi-level event-history analysis in Burkina Faso. Population and Environment, 25(5), 423–460. https://doi.org/10.1023/b:poen.0000036928.17696.e8

52.

Hermans

McLeman

(2021). Climate change, drought, land degradation and migration: Exploring the linkages. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 50, 236–244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2021.04.013

53.

Hoffmann

Dimitrova

Muttarak

Crespo Cuaresma

Peisker

(2020). A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration. Nature Climate Change, 10(10), 904–912. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0898-6

54.

Homer-Dixon

T. F.

(1994). Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: Evidence from cases. International Security, 19(1), 5–40. https://doi.org/10.2307/2539147

55.

Hugo

(2008). Migration, development and environment. International Organization for Migration.

56.

Hunter

L. M.

Nawrotzki

(2016). Migration and the environment. In International handbook of migration and population distribution (pp. 465–484): Springer.

57.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) . (2014). Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability”, the working group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth assessment report (WGII AR5). IPCC.

58.

International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) . (2007). The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Vol. 996). Cambridge University Press.

59.

Jacobson

J. L.

(1988). Environmental refugees: A yardstick of habitability. Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society, 8(3), 257–258. https://doi.org/10.1177/027046768800800304

60.

Kaczan

D. J.

Orgill-Meyer

(2020). The impact of climate change on migration: A synthesis of recent empirical insights. Climatic Change, 158(3–4), 281–300. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02560-0

61.

Kassé

(1996). L’état, le technicien et le banquier face aux défis du monde rural sénégalais. Nouvelles Editions Africaines Du Senegal.

62.

Kassé

(2015). L’économie du Sénégal: les 5 défis d’un demi-siecle de croissance atone. L’Harmattan.

63.

Kergoat

(2015). Introduction. In Les sociétés rurales face aux changements climatiques et environnementaux en Afrique de l’Ouest (pp. 131–133). IRD.

64.

Knerr

(2004). Desertification and human migration. In In Biological resources and migration (pp. 317–337). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

65.

Lalou

Delaunay

(2015). Migrations saisonnières et changement climatique en milieu rural sénégalais : forme ou échec de l'adaptation? In Les sociétés rurales face aux changements climatiques et environnementaux en Afrique de l’Ouest (pp. 287–313). IRD.

66.

Lebel

Ali

(2009). Recent trends in the central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990–2007). Journal of Hydrology, 375(1–2), 52–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.11.030

67.

Lericollais

(1999). La dégradation de l'aménagement agraire. In Léricollais

(Ed.), Paysan Sereer dynamiques agraires et mobilités au Sénégal (pp. 200–211). IRD.

68.

Marchiori

Maystadt

J. F.

Schumacher

(2012). The impact of weather anomalies on migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 63(3), 355–374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2012.02.001

69.

Mastrorillo

Licker

Bohra-Mishra

Fagiolo

Estes

DL.

Oppenheimer

(2016). The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa. Global Environmental Change, 39, 155–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.014

70.

McKee

T. B.

Doesken

N. J.

Kleist

(1993, January). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17(22), 179–183.

71.

McLeman

R. A.

(2014). Climate and human migration: Past experiences, future challenges. Cambridge University Press.

72.

Meze-Hausken

(2000). Migration caused by climate change: How vulnerable are people in dryland areas? Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 5(4), 379–406. https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1026570529614

73.

Missirian

Schlenker

(2017). Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations. Science, 358(6370), 1610–1614. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao0432

74.

Moore

Wesselbaum

(2023). Climatic factors as drivers of migration: A review. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 25(4), 2955–2975. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02191-z

75.

Mueller

Gray

Kosec

(2014). Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan. Nature Climate Change, 4(3), 182–185. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2103

76.

Myers

(1993). Environmental refugees in a globally warmed world. BioScience, 43(11), 752–761. https://doi.org/10.2307/1312319

77.

Myers

Kent

(1995). Environmental exodus: An emergent crisis in the global arena. Climate Inst.

78.

Ndiaye

P. M.

Bodian

Diop

Panthou

Dacosta

Deme

Dezetter

… Vischel

(2020). Recent trend in hydroclimatic conditions in the Senegal River Basin. Water, 12(2), 436.

79.

Nicholson

S. E.

(2013). The West African Sahel: A review of recent studies on the rainfall regime and its interannual variability. ISRN Meteorology, 2013, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/453521

80.

Nielsen

J. Ø.

Reenberg

(2010). Cultural barriers to climate change adaptation: A case study from northern Burkina Faso. Global Environmental Change, 20(1), 142–152. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.10.002

81.

Nystuen

J. A.

(1999). Relative performance of automatic rain gauges under different rainfall conditions. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 16(8), 1025–1043. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(1999)016<1025:rpoarg>2.0.co;2

82.

Panthou

Vischel

Lebel

(2014). Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel. International Journal of Climatology, 34(15), 3998–4006. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3984

83.

Piguet

(2022). Linking climate change, environmental degradation, and migration: An update after 10 years. WIREs Climate Change, 13(1), e746. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.746

84.

Pison

(1997). Les changements démographiques au Sénégal (Vol. 138). Ined. Social dimensions of climate change: Equity and vulnerability in a warming world, 2, p. 47–74.

85.

PNA Climate Analytics GmbH, Berlin (2019). Etat des lieux des connaissances scientifiques sur les changements climatiques pour les secteurs des ressources en eau, de l’agriculture et de la zone côtière. Report produced under the project “Projet d’Appui Scientifique aux processus de Plans Nationaux d’Adaptation dans les pays francophones les moins avancés d’Afrique subsaharienne”. 76 pages. www.climateanalytics.org/publications.

86.

Ravenstein

E. G.

(1885). The laws of migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167–235. https://doi.org/10.2307/2979181

87.

Ravenstein

E. G.

(1889). The laws of migration. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 52(2), 241–305. https://doi.org/10.2307/2979333

88.

Reuveny

Moore

W. H.

(2009). Does environmental degradation influence migration ? Emigration to developed countries in the late 1980s and 1990s. Social Science Quarterly, 90(3), 461–479. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2009.00569.x

89.

Ribot

(2010). Vulnerability does not fall from the sky: Toward multiscale, pro-poor climate.

90.

Robalino

Jimenez

Chacón

(2015). The effect of hydro-meteorological emergencies on internal migration. World Development, 67, 438–448. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.10.031

91.

Roquet

(2008). Partir pour mieux durer: la migration comme réponse à la sécheresse au Sénégal? Espace Populations Sociétés, 2008/1, 37–53. https://doi.org/10.4000/eps.2374

92.

Sall

Tall

S. M.

Tandian

Samb

(2011). Changements climatiques, stratégies d’adaptation et mobilités. Evidence à partir de quatre sites au Sénégal. Human Settlements working paperseries. IIED.

93.

Scheffran

Marmer

Sow

(2012). Migration as a contribution to resilience and innovation in climate adaptation: Social networks and co-development in Northwest Africa. Applied Geography, 33, 119–127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.10.002

94.

Šedová

Čizmaziová

Cook

(2021). A meta-analysis of climate migration literature. CEPA Discussion Papers 29. Center for Economic Policy Analysis.

95.

Semple

E. C.

(1911). Influences of geographic environment, on the basis of ratzel’s system of anthropo-geography. H. Holt.

96.

Shiva

Molana

(2018). Climate change induced inter-province migration in Iran. University of Aberdeen Business School, 18(2), 2–18.

97.

Sultan

Roudier

Quirion

Alhassane

Muller

Dingkuhn

Ciais

Guimberteau

Traore

Baron

(2013). Assessing climate change impacts on sorghum and millet yields in the Sudanian and Sahelian savannas of West Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 8(1), 014040. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014040

98.

Tacoli

(2011). Not only climate change: Mobility, vulnerability and socio-economic transformations in environmentally fragile areas in Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania. IIED.Human Settlements Working Paper 28. International Institute for Environment and Development.

99.

Tamondong-Helin

Helin

(1991). Migration and the environment: Interrelationship in sub- Saharan Africa. Field Staff report No. 22. Environmental change in the west African Sahel. Natural Heritage Institute and National Academy Press.

100.

Thiede

B. C.

Gray

C. L.

(2017). Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia. Population and Environment, 39(2), 147–172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-016-0265-8

101.

Vichel

Lebel

Penthou

Quantin

Rossi

Martinet

(2015). Le retour d’une période humide au Sahel. Observations et perspectives. Les sociétés rurales face aux changements climatiques et environnementaux en Afrique de l’ouest, Edition IRD Marseille, 2015 , 43-60.

102.

Vinke

Bergmann

Blocher

Upadhyay

Hoffmann

(2020). Migration as adaptation? Migration Studies, 8(4), 626–634.

103.

Wooldridge

J. M.

(2015). Introduction to econometrics: A modern approach. Michigan State University.

104.

World Bank Rigaud

K. K.

de Sherbinin

Jones

Bergmann

Clement

Ober

Midgley

(2018). Groundswell: Preparing for internal climate migration. World Bank.

105.

World Bank . (2014). Situation économique du Sénégal : Apprendre du passé pour un avenir meilleur. World Bank Group.

106.

World Meteorological Organization . (2012). Standardized precipitation index user guide. (M. Svoboda, M. Hayes and D. Wood). (WMO-No. 1090), Geneva. [PDF].