Speaking Up and Silencing Out in Face of a Changing Climate of Opinion

This paper relies on panel data from Israel to test the spiral of silence theory's assumptions concerning overt expression of opinion. The research design provides a way to examine the effect of a changing climate of opinion on who speaks up and who silences out over time and changing circumstances. In addition, a multivariate approach is adopted to test the role of climate perceptions relative to other factors, and extend our understanding of public speech. Perceptions of the climate of opinion are found to be related to overt expression of opinion cross-sectionally; however, their impact is not consistent and weaker than other factors. General political involvement is most important, and also various sociodemographic characteristics of people are more powerful than climate perceptions. Over time this relationship does not hold, and the paper focuses on political discontent and value expression considerations.