Abstract
My first thought when I saw Vaclav Smil’s latest book, “How the World Really Works,” was why that title hadn’t been previously claimed by someone like a Darwin, Einstein, Buffett, or Kissenger. Although any or all of these gentlemen might logically be expected to have, or have had, something to say on the topic, Professor Smil does an admirable job of presenting “the science behind how we got here and where we’re going.” By focusing on a few fundamental realities of the modern world, he places some of our most pressing and contentious issues in perspective.
For example, using a broad and deep array of very small to very large numbers, he provides ample evidence that fossil fuels won’t just disappear despite various governmental pledges to be “carbon free” or “carbon neutral” by 2040, 2050 or some other arbitrary date ending in 5 or 0. As he notes early on, “…we are a fossil-fueled civilization whose technical and scientific advances, quality of life, and prosperity rest on the combustion of huge quantities of fossil carbon, and we cannot simply walk away from this critical determinant of our fortunes in a few decades, never mind years.” Even though hindsight may view this as a Faustian bargain, and many will disagree with this statement, the absence of viable, mass-scale alternatives to petroleum fuels for trucking, flying, shipping, as well as agriculture and construction, and the need for oil and natural gas in the production of fertilizers, other agrochemicals, and plastics means that these fuels will likely be with us for a long time.
The book opens with a chapter on energy and how the journey from human power to draft animals to wind and water, and ultimately, to internal combustion and electricity helped to free people to live and not just labor. While the benefits to humanity of this transition have been enormous on many fronts, the environmental cost of carbon combustion has been enormous as well. Unfortunately, the near total dependence of the modern world on reliable electricity, and the significant role played by fossil carbon in generating it, makes the rapid displacement of these fuels highly unlikely. Although photovoltaics and wind turbines are definitely a carbon-free alternative, absent technologies for long-term, large scale electricity storage that do not yet exist, or the transmission infrastructure to convey electricity over long distances from sunny, windy places to urban and industrial centers where it is needed, these renewable sources alone will be insufficient to serve the needs of large, populous nations. Nuclear thermal plants could supply carbon free baseload power when solar and wind were not available, but this technology has been allowed to languish and has been rejected outright by countries such as Germany and Japan although both nations are now reconsidering decisions made in the immediate aftermath of the Fukushima disaster.
He moves next to a discussion of the role of oil and natural gas in supporting the global agricultural supply chain. Every bushel of grain, package of chicken breasts, or bunch of tomatoes we consume contains carbon embedded during the production, preparation, shipping, distribution, and marketing involved in getting them to our table. Again, he comes armed with lots of statistics to show that feeding the world is highly dependent on oil and natural gas in the form of fuel and agrochemicals, e.g., a surprising amount of diesel fuel goes into a bunch of out-of-season asparagus as does the natural gas used to produce nitrogen fertilizer. Local sourcing and organic farming can definitely reduce food’s carbon footprint, but this is simply not an option for the hundreds of millions who live in regions that cannot produce sufficient foodstuffs.
The next chapter deals with what he considers the “four pillars of modern civilization,” ammonia, plastics, steel, and cement, all of which are highly dependent on oil and/or natural gas. The Haber-Bosch process used to synthesize the ammonia that is the basis of nitrogen fertilizers has enabled the agricultural industry to keep pace with the nutritional demands of billions. He estimates that about half of the world’s population is dependent on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers which utilize natural gas as a source of hydrogen. Although this figure is subject to many assumptions and interpretations, the reality is that a great many people rely on natural gas for their food supply and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Plastics, often the villain in ocean pollution narratives, is another petrochemical product that has become indispensable in modern living. The physical and chemical properties of the many different compounds that fall under the “plastic” umbrella makes them ubiquitous in our lives, often in applications where suitable replacements are not available such as healthcare and hospital settings. The global production of plastics has more than doubled since 2000 and shows no sign of abating. Unless and until alternatives are developed, our dependence on them and the petroleum on which they are based will continue.
Steel and concrete, the two essential underpinnings of infrastructure and the built environment, are also responsible for significant emissions of greenhouse gases. Their physical properties (great strength, wide availability, durability, and low cost) set a very high bar for suitable replacements, certainly at mass scale. As much of the developed world is looking to renew or replace its aging infrastructure, and the developing world seeks to emulate the progress of China, the demand for these materials will only increase. How to meet this demand in a sustainable manner will be challenging to say the least. This is a good segue into Professor Smil’s overarching message.
Humankind has come a very long way over tens of thousands of years of evolution. We are where we are because we have managed to harness science and technology to overcome many barriers, hunger and disease among them. Prior to the discovery of the Haber-Bosch process, widespread famine and starvation posed an existential threat to much of the world. Although hunger still exists, its impact has been meaningfully reduced. The many comforts we take for granted have been made possible by our ability to recognize and solve problems, albeit not always holistically or sustainably. Much of what can be termed “progress” has placed enormous stress on the biosphere. Global warming as a result of CO2 emissions is causing climate change, ocean acidification, and a host of other ills. However, reducing this to a binary issue of either denying this reality or calling for the elimination of carbon emissions on totally unrealistic timetables is decidedly unhelpful.
There is no magic bullet! We will need to slow, and ultimately halt, carbon emissions while at the same time, finding a sustainable path that the developing world can follow to achieve a decent standard of living. To some, Professor Smil will come across as a climate change denier or technological reactionary. He is neither. He simply presents the case of where we are, how we got here, and the time and technology challenges we will face as we try to move off this carbon-dependent path. On a planet with a population rapidly approaching 8 million people, where many do yet enjoy, but aspire to a life relatively free from want and insecurity, change will not occur just because we want it to.
In this regard, he emphasizes the necessity of collective action. Much of the conversation surrounding climate change and other technological challenges has been left to scientists and technocrats with little power to implement change. National and local approaches to global issues are inherently political but lacking higher level direction are often sub-optimal if not counter-productive. Approaches that might be best for the U.S. will probably not work for China and definitely not for sub-Saharan Africa. Even if common threads can be found, absent some futuristic and globally empowered “Council of the Wise and Compassionate,” it will be exceedingly difficult to identify, let alone compel, appropriate action.
Professor Smil does not propose such a body nor does he anticipate one. He places his faith in the demonstrated ability of humans to grapple with challenges and muddle through with a combination of successes and failures while maintaining a positive slope in the path of progress. Although not a thunderclap from the heavens, this does seem to be “How the world really works.”