Abstract
Introduction. Patients proposed to vascular noncardiac surgery (VS) have several comorbidities associated with major adverse cardiac events (MACE). We evaluated incidence, predictors, and outcomes, and compared different scores to predict MACE after VS. Methods. We included all patients admitted from 2006 to 2013. Perioperative MACE included cardiac arrhythmias, myocardial infarction (MI), cardiogenic pulmonary edema (CPE), acute heart failure (AHF), and cardiac arrest (CA). Lee Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI), Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI-CRI), Vascular Study Group of New England (VSG-CRI), and South African Vascular Surgical (SAVS-CRI) Cardiac Risk Indexes were calculated and analyzed. We performed multivariate logistic regression to assess independent predictors with calculation of odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). To reduce overfitting, we used leave-one-out cross-validation approach. The Predictive ability of scores was tested using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results. A total of 928 patients were included. We observed 81 MACE (28 MI, 22 arrhythmias, 10 CPE, 9 AHF, 12 CA) in 60 patients (6.5%): 3.3% in intermediate-risk surgery and 9.8% in high-risk surgery. Previous history of coronary artery disease (OR = 3.2, CI = 1.8-5.7), atrial fibrillation (OR = 5.1, CI = 2.4-11.0), insulin-treated diabetes mellitus (OR = 3.26, CI = 1.51-7.06), mechanical ventilation (OR = 2.75, CI = 1.41-4.63), and heart rate (OR = 1.02, CI = 1.01-1.03) at admission were considered independent risk factors in multivariate analysis. The AUROC of our model was 0.79, compared with RCRI (0.66), VSG-CRI (0.69), VQI-CRI (0.71), and SAVS-CRI (0.73). Conclusions. Observed MACE were within predicted range (1% to 5% after intermediate-risk surgery and >5% after high-risk surgery). SAVS-CRI and VQI-CRI had slightly better predictive capacity than VSG-CRI or RCRI.
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