Unpacking Overtourism in Barcelona (1986–2025): A Longitudinal Process-Tracing Analysis and the Cascade Amplification Framework

Abstract

This study employs longitudinal process tracing to examine overtourism in Barcelona (1986–2025), tracing its trajectory from an industrial port to a global tourism hub. Drawing on 45 evidentiary units, Bayesian updating, and Collier’s (2011) diagnostic tests, we validate seven causal mechanisms: infrastructure lock-in, regulatory gaps, digital amplification, cultural commodification, resident resistance, governance fragmentation, and biopolitical erosion. These mechanisms interact through path-dependent feedback loops under neoliberal urbanisation, generating housing crises, cultural erosion, and social conflict. Challenging linear destination life-cycle narratives, we propose the Cascade Amplification Framework, a five-layered model designed to mitigate overtourism and offer transferable insights for other urban tourism destinations facing similar pressures.

Keywords

overtourism longitudinal process tracing causal mechanisms Bayesian updating Cascade Amplification Framework

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Aguilera

Artioli

Colomb

(2021). Explaining the diversity of policy responses to platform-mediated short-term rentals in European cities: A comparison of Barcelona, Paris and Milan. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 53(7), 1689–1712. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X19862286

Ajuntament de Barcelona. (2022, November 23). Airbnb required to remove over 4,100 ads for tourist rooms. https://www.barcelona.cat/infobarcelona/en/tema/tourism/airbnb-required-to-remove-over-4100-ads-for-tourist-rooms_1198277.html

Ajuntament de Barcelona. (2025, April 23). Barcelona steps up the fight against illegal tourist rentals. https://ajuntament.barcelona.cat/turisme/en/latest-news/news/barcelona-steps-up-the-fight-against-illegal-tourist-rentals-1543938

Ajuntament de Barcelona. (2020). The Barcelona 2020 strategic tourism plan. https://ajuntament.barcelona.cat/turisme/sites/default/files/barcelona_tourism_for_2020.pdf

Alonso-Almeida

M. D. M.

Borrajo-Millán

(2019). Are social media data pushing overtourism? The case of Barcelona and Chinese tourists. Sustainability, 11(12), Article 3356. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11123356

Balibrea

M. P.

(2001). Urbanism, culture and the post-industrial city: Challenging the ‘Barcelona model’. Journal of Spanish Cultural Studies, 2(2), 187–210. https://doi.org/10.1080/14636200120085174

Baroghi

Ribeiro

P. J.

(2024). Olympics-related urban interventions in Barcelona and in Rio de Janeiro: A look at territorial equality legacies. Cities, 155, Article 105503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2024.105503

Beach

(2017). Process tracing methods in the social sciences. In Hannah

(Ed.), Oxford research encyclopedia of politics. (p. 2). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.176

Beach

Pedersen

R. B.

(2013). Turning observations into evidence-using Bayesian logic to evaluate empirical material [Conference session]. APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper, American Political Science Association 2013 Annual Meeting, SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2301451

10.

Bei

(2025). The spatial effect of short-term rental regulations: The comparison between Barcelona and Paris. Cities, 158, Article 105603. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2024.105603

11.

Bennett

Checkel

J. T.

(Eds.). (2015). Process tracing. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139858472

12.

Bianchi

(2018). The political economy of tourism development: A critical review. Annals of Tourism Research, 70, 88–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2017.08.005

13.

Blanco-Romero

Blázquez-Salom

Cànoves

(2018). Barcelona, housing rent bubble in a tourist city. Social responses and local policies. Sustainability, 10(6), Article 2043. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10062043

14.

Blatter

Haverland

(2014). Case studies and (causal-) process tracing. In Engeli

Allison

C. R.

(Eds.), Comparative policy studies: Conceptual and methodological challenges (pp. 59–83). Palgrave Macmillan UK. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137314154_4

15.

Blázquez-Salom

Cladera

Sard

(2023). Identifying the sustainability indicators of overtourism and undertourism in Majorca. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 31(7), 1694–1718. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2021.1942478

16.

Bobic

Akhavan

(2022). Tourism gentrification in Mediterranean heritage cities. The necessity for multidisciplinary planning. Cities, 124, Article 103616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103616

17.

Bourliataux-Lajoinie

Dosquet

del Olmo Arriaga

J. L.

(2019). The dark side of digital technology to overtourism: the case of Barcelona. Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes, 11(5), 582–593. https://doi.org/10.1108/WHATT-06-2019-0041

18.

Butler

R. W.

(1980). The concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution and implications for management of resources. The Canadian Geographer, XXIV(1), 5–12. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0064.1980.tb00970.x

19.

Butler

R. W.

(2025). Tourism destination development: The tourism area life cycle model. Tourism Geographies, 27(3–4), 599–607. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2024.2325932

20.

Butler

R. W.

Dodds

(2022). Overcoming overtourism: A review of failure. Tourism Review, 77(1), 35–53. https://doi.org/10.1108/TR-04-2021-0215

21.

Calle-Vaquero

M. D. L.

Garcia-Hernandez

Mendoza

Miguel

(2020). Urban planning regulations for tourism in the context of overtourism. Applications in historic centres. Sustainability, 13(1), Article 70. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13010070

22.

Capocchi

Vallone

Pierotti

Amaduzzi

(2019). Overtourism: A literature review to assess implications and future perspectives. Sustainability, 11(12), Article 3303. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11123303

23.

Checkel

J. T.

(2021, September). Process tracing-towards a new research agenda [Conference session]. Proceedings of the Annual Convention of the American Political Science Association, Seattle, WA, USA, pp. 15–18. https://www.eui.eu/Documents/DepartmentsCentres/SPS/Profiles/Checkel/APSAAnnualConvention-CheckelPaper.0921.pdf

24.

Cocola Gant

. (2018). Struggling with the leisure class: Tourism, gentrification and displacement [Doctoral dissertation, Cardiff University]. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.34702.36164

25.

Cocola-Gant

Gago

(2021). Airbnb, buy-to-let investment and tourism-driven displacement: A case study in Lisbon. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 53(7), 1671–1688. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X19869012

26.

Collier

(2011). Understanding process tracing. PS: Political Science & Politics, 44(4), 823–830. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096511001429

27.

Degen

García

(2012). The transformation of the ‘Barcelona model’: An analysis of culture, urban regeneration and governance. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 36(5), 1022–1038. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2427.2012.01152.x

28.

Delahais

Toulemonde

(2017). Making rigorous causal claims in a real-life context: Has research contributed to sustainable forest management? Evaluation, 23(4), 370–388. https://doi.org.10.1177/0308518X19869012

29.

Diah

(2025). Overtourism after the COVID-19 pandemic: Ecological degradation and social tensions in tourist destinations. Environment Conflict, 2(1), 51–67. https://doi.org/10.61511/environc.v2i1.2025.1700

30.

Dodds

Butler

(Eds.). (2019a). Overtourism: Issues, realities and solutions (Vol. 1). Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. https://doi.org/10.1080/1743873X.2019.1701818

31.

Dodds

Butler

(2019b). The phenomena of overtourism: A review. International Journal of Tourism Cities, 5(4), 519–528. https://doi.org.10.1108/IJTC-06-2019-0090

32.

Dodds

Butler

(2024). Overtourism in urban environments. In Maxim

Morrison

A. M.

Day

Coca-Stefaniak

J. A.

(Eds.), Handbook on sustainable urban tourism (pp. 34–43). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781803926742.00011

33.

Duignan

M. B.

Everett

McCabe

(2022). Events as catalysts for communal resistance to overtourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 96, 103438.

34.

Elorrieta

Cerdan Schwitzguébel

Torres-Delgado

(2022). From success to unrest: The social impacts of tourism in Barcelona. International Journal of Tourism Cities, 8(3), 675–702. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJTC-05-2021-0076

35.

Garcia-López

M. À.

Jofre-Monseny

Martínez-Mazza

Segú

(2020). Do short-term rental platforms affect housing markets? Evidence from Airbnb in Barcelona. Journal of Urban Economics, 119, Article 103278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2020.103278

36.

Garcia-Ramon

M. D.

Albet

(2000). Pre-Olympic and post-Olympic Barcelona, a ‘model’ for urban regeneration today? Environment and Planning A, 32(8), 1331–1334. https://doi.org/10.1068/a3331

37.

Genç

Tûrkay

Ulema

(2022). Tourism gentrification: Barcelona and Venice. Turismo y Sociedad, 31, 125–140. https://doi.org/10.18601/01207555.n31.06

38.

Gibson

(2021). Critical tourism studies: New directions for volatile times. Tourism Geographies, 23(4), 659–677.

39.

González-Reverté

(2022). The perception of overtourism in urban destinations. Empirical evidence based on residents’ emotional response. Tourism Planning & Development, 19(5), 451–477. https://doi.org/10.1080/21568316.2021.1980094

40.

Goodwin

(2017). The challenge of overtourism. Responsible Tourism Partnership Working Paper 4. https://www.millenniumdestinations.org/uploads/4/1/9/7/41979675/rtpwp4overtourism012017.pdf

41.

Goodwin

(2019). Barcelona–crowding out the locals: A model for tourism management. In Dodds

Butler

(Eds.), Overtourism: Issues, realities and solutions (Vol. 1, pp. 125–138). https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110607369-009

42.

Goodwin

(2021). City destinations, overtourism and governance. International Journal of Tourism Cities, 7(4), 916–921. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJTC-02-2021-0024

43.

Gowreesunkar

V. G.

Vo Thanh

(2020). Between overtourism and under-tourism: Impacts, implications, and probable solutions. In Séraphin

Gladkikh

Vo Thanh

(Eds.), Overtourism: Causes, implications and solutions (pp. 45–68). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42458-9_4

44.

Guttentag

(2015). Airbnb: Disruptive innovation and the rise of an informal tourism accommodation sector. Current Issues in Tourism, 18(12), 1192–1217. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.827159

45.

Guttentag

(2019). Progress on Airbnb: A literature review. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Technology, 10(4), 814–844. https://doi.org/10.1108/JHTT-08-2018-0075

46.

Gyódi

Mazur

Cocola-Gant

(2025). Barcelona as a case study for the effectiveness of short-term rental market regulations. Cities, 162, Article 105915. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2025.105915

47.

Higgins-Desbiolles

Carnicelli

Krolikowski

Wijesinghe

Boluk

(2019). Degrowing tourism: Rethinking tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 27(12), 1926–1944. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2019.1601732

48.

Holden

Jamal

Burini

(2022). The future of tourism in the Anthropocene. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 47(1), 423–447. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-120920-092529

49.

Hughes

(2018). ‘Tourists go home’: Anti-tourism industry protest in Barcelona. Social Movement Studies, 17(4), 471–477. https://doi.org/10.1080/14742837.2018.1468244

50.

Jones

Svejenova

(2017). The architecture of city identities: A multimodal study of Barcelona and Boston. In Höllerer

M. A.

Daudigeos

Jancsary

(Eds.), Multimodality, meaning, and institutions (Vol. 54, pp. 203–234). Emerald Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0733-558X2017000054B007

51.

Jones

Z. M.

Ponzini

(2018). Mega-events and the preservation of urban heritage: Literature gaps, potential overlaps, and a call for further research. Journal of Planning Literature, 33(4), 433–450. https://doi.org/10.1177/0885412218779603

52.

Kay

Baker

(2015). What can causal process tracing offer to policy studies? A review of the literature. Policy Studies Journal, 43(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1111/psj.12092

53.

Koens

Postma

Papp

(2018). Is overtourism overused? Understanding the impact of tourism in a city context. Sustainability, 10(12), 4384.

54.

Kukkamäki

(2020). The connection between increased tourism and locals’ quality of life in Barcelona [Master’s thesis]. University of Applied Sciences. https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:amk-2020100621020

55.

Lashley

(2024). Tourists go home! Exploring conflicts between residents and visitors. In Lashley

(Eds.), Conflict and hostility in hotels, restaurants, and bars (pp. 191–204). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003364030-13

56.

Marshall

(2000). Urban planning and governance: Is there a Barcelona model? International Planning Studies, 5(3), 299–319. https://doi.org/10.1080/713672855

57.

Martins

(2018). Tourism planning and tourismphobia: An analysis of the strategic tourism plan of Barcelona 2010-2015. Journal of Tourism, Heritage & Services Marketing, 4(1), 3–7. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1247519

58.

Mihalic

(2020). Conceptualising overtourism: A sustainability approach. Annals of Tourism Research, 84, Article 103025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2020.103025

59.

Milano

(2018). Overtourism, malestar social y turismofobia. Un debate controvertido. PASOS Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural, 16(3), 551–564. https://doi.org/10.25145/j.pasos.2018.16.041

60.

Milano

Novelli

Cheer

J. M.

(2019). Overtourism and degrowth: A social movements perspective. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 27(12), 1857–1875. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2019.1650054

61.

Milano

Novelli

Russo

A. P.

(2024). Anti-tourism activism and the inconvenient truths about mass tourism, touristification and overtourism. Tourism Geographies, 26(8), 1313–1337. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2024.2391388

62.

Minca

(2025). On tourism, geography and the biopolitical. Tourism Geographies, 27(3–4), 840–850. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2025.2457766

63.

Montano

L. J.

Elsenbroich

Font

Ribeiro

M. A.

(2025). Impact evaluation with process tracing: Explaining causal processes in an EU-interreg sustainable tourism intervention. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 33(8), 1752–1774. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2024.2358115

64.

Montoriol Garriga

. (2019, July 1). Rent is on the rise in Spain. CaixaBank Research. https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/rent-rise-spain

65.

Morales-Pérez

Garay

Wilson

(2022). Airbnb’s contribution to socio-spatial inequalities and geographies of resistance in Barcelona. Tourism Geographies, 24(6–7), 978–1001. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1795712

66.

Munar

A. M.

(2022). Digital tourism communication and democracy. Tourism Culture & Communication, 22(2), 143–155. https://doi/org/10.3727/109830421X16296375579589

67.

Nieuwland

Van Melik

(2020). Regulating Airbnb: How cities deal with perceived negative externalities of short-term rentals. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(7), 811–825. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2018.1504899

68.

Novy

Colomb

(Eds.). (2017). Protest and resistance in the tourist city. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315719306

69.

Novy

Colomb

(2019). Urban tourism as a source of contention and social mobilisations: A critical review. Tourism Planning & Development, 16(4), 358–375. https://doi.org/10.1080/21568316.2019.1577293

70.

Patrichi

I. C.

(2023). The phenomenon of over-tourism in a post-pandemic context. Case of Barcelona. Romanian Economic and Business Review, 18(2), 69–76. http://www.rebe.rau.ro/RePEc/rau/journl/SU23/REBE-SU23-A8.pdf

71.

Rainsford

(2024, July 7). The protesters and residents pushing back on tourism in Barcelona. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8d87l6lplo

72.

Responsible Vacation. (2020). Overtourism in Barcelona. https://www.responsiblevacation.com/vacations/catalonia/travel-guide/overtourism-in-barcelona

73.

Reuters. (2025a, March 13). Spain’s top court backs Barcelona's plan to ban holiday apartments. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spains-top-court-backs-barcelonas-plan-ban-holiday-apartments-2025-03-13

74.

Reuters. (2025b, May 19). Spain blocks more than 65,000 Airbnb holiday rental listings. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spains-consumer-rights-ministry-blocks-more-than-65000-airbnb-listings-holiday-2025-05-19

75.

Roelofsen

Minca

(Eds.). (2023). Tourism and biopolitics in pandemic times. Springer Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-46399-0

76.

Russo

A. P.

(2002). The “vicious circle” of tourism development in heritage cities. Annals of Tourism Research, 29(1), 165–182. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(01)00029-9

77.

Russo

A. P.

Scarnato

(2018). “Barcelona in common”: A new urban regime for the 21st-century tourist city? Journal of Urban Affairs, 40(4), 455–474. https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2017.1373023

78.

Sánchez

Broudehoux

A. M.

(2013). Mega-events and urban regeneration in Rio de Janeiro: Planning in a state of emergency. International Journal of Urban Sustainable Development, 5(2), 132–153. https://doi.org/10.1080/19463138.2013.839450

79.

Sánchez-Aguirre

D. P.

Alvarado-Sizzo

Moury-Fernandes

B. G.

(2025). Intangible cultural heritage versus tourism: Residents’ reactions to temporal overtourism during the day of the dead in Mixquic, Mexico. Journal of Heritage Tourism, 20(2), 235–259. https://doi.org/10.1080/1743873X.2024.2415334

80.

Solís

A. T.

Gil

G. L.

(2024). The impact of tourism on the labor market of local service industries in Barcelona. Law and Economy, 3(7), 21–29. https://doi/org/10.56397/LE.2024.07.02

81.

Statista Research Department. (2025a). Cruise passenger traffic at Barcelona’s port 1990–2024. Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/457624/cruise-passengers-in-barcelona-spain

82.

Statista Research Department. (2025b). Number of tourists in hotels in Barcelona, Spain from 1990 to 2024. Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/452060/number-of-tourists-in-barcelona-spain/

83.

Statista Research Department. (2025c). Tourism in Barcelona – statistics & facts. Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/topics/4156/tourism-in-barcelona/#topicOverview

84.

Suno Wu

Font

Barbrook-Johnson

Torres Delgado

(2025). Social learning communities of practice as mechanisms for sustainable tourism: A process tracing evaluation of a government intervention. Tourism Recreation Research, 50(3), 521–534. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2023.2291589

85.

Tesfahuney

(2024). The Tourismocene: Barcelona, overtourism, and the spatial futures of the polis. In Eaves

L. E.

Nast

H. J.

Papadopoulos

A. G.

(Eds.), Spatial futures: Difference and the post-anthropocene (pp. 345–374). Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-9761-9_11

86.

United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization. (2024). Travel without leaving a trace: How to tackle overtourism. The UNESCO Courier. https://courier.unesco.org/en/articles/travel-without-leaving-trace

87.

Vennesson

(2008). Case studies and process tracing: Theories and practices. In Della Porta

Keating

(Eds.), Approaches and methodologies in the social sciences: A pluralist perspective (pp. 223–239). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511801938.013

88.

Wachsmuth

Weisler

(2018). Airbnb and the rent gap: Gentrification through the sharing economy. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 50(6), 1147–1170. https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X18778038

89.

Yuval

(2022). To compete or cooperate? Intermunicipal management of overtourism. Journal of Travel Research, 61(6), 1327–1341.

90.

Zaks

(2017). Relationships among rivals (RAR): A framework for analyzing contending hypotheses in process tracing. Political Analysis, 25(3), 344–362. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2017.12

91.

Żemła

(2020). Reasons and consequences of overtourism in contemporary cities—Knowledge gaps and future research. Sustainability, 12(5), Article 1729. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12051729