The study of electoral stability or volatility in Latin America calls attention to profound differences between most Latin American party systems, which are quite volatile, and West European party systems, which remain comparatively stable notwithstanding a trend toward greater volatility in recent decades. The examination of Latin American party systems poses interesting questions about why they differ so markedly from West European systems along this important dimension and what the consequences are for democracy. This paper focuses on volatility in one country, Brazil, in order to examine these issues. I make four arguments: that the Brazilian party system was moderately volatile during Brazil's first democracy (1946-64); that the party system has been highly volatile since 1982; that Brazil's volatility is much higher than that in the advanced industrial democracies; and finally, that the high volatility of the post-1985 period was caused by a combination of structural and institutional factors inimical to strong ties between citizens, political elites and parties, and further boosted by the dismal economic results of 1987-94.
Ames, Barry (1995) `Electoral Strategy under Open-List Proportional Representation', American Journal of Political Science39: 406-433.
2.
Bartolini, Stefano and Peter Mair (1990) Identity, Competition and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates, 1885-1985. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
3.
Carey, John M. and Matthew Soberg Shugart (1995) `Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote: A Rank Ordering of Electoral Fomulas', Electoral Studies14: 417-439.
4.
Claggett, William , William Flanigan and Nancy Zingale (1984) `Nationalization of the American Electorate', American Political Science Review78: 77-91.
5.
Coppedge, Michael (1995) `Freezing in the Tropics: Explaining Party-System Volatility in Latin America', mimeo, University of Notre Dame.
6.
Dix, Robert H. (1989) `Cleavage Structures and Party Systems in Latin America', Comparative Politics22: 23-37.
7.
Fleischer, David (1998) `Brazilian Political Parties and Party System, 1945-1997', Working Paper 98-1. Institute of Brazilian Business and Public Management Issues, The George Washington University.
8.
Huntington, Samuel P. (1991) The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press.
9.
Inglehart, Ronald (1990) Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Society. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
10.
Jones, Mark P. (1995) Electoral Laws and the Survival of Presidential Democracy. Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press.
11.
Kinzo, Maria D'Alva Gil (1988) Legal Opposition Politics under Authoritarian Rule in Brazil: The Case of the MDB, 1966-1979. New York: St Martin's.
12.
Laakso, Markku and Rein Taagepera (1979) ` “Effective” Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to Western Europe', Comparative Political Studies12: 3-27.
13.
Lamounier, Bolivar (1989) `Authoritarian Brazil Revisited: The Impact of Elections on the Abertura', in Alfred C. Stepan (ed.) Democratizating Brazil: Problems of Transition and Consolidation, pp. 43-79. New York: Oxford University Press.
14.
Lamounier, Bolivar , ed. (1990) De Geisel a Collor: O Balanço da Transição. São Paulo: Ed. Sumaré.
15.
Lamounier, Bolivar and Rachel Meneguello (1986) Partidos Políticos e Consolidação Democrática: O Caso Brasileiro. São Paulo: Brasiliense.
16.
Lavareda, Antônio (1991) A Democracia nas Urnas: O Processo Partidário Brasileiro. Rio de Janeiro: IUPERJ/Rio Fundo.
17.
Lima Júnior, Olavo Brasil (1993) Democracia e Instituições Políticas no Brasil dos Anos 80. São Paulo: Loyola.
18.
Lipset, Seymour Martin and Stein Rokkan (1967) `Cleavage Structures, Party Systems, and Voter Alignments: An Introduction', in Seymour Martin Lipset and Stein Rokkan (eds) Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives, pp. 1-64. New York: Free Press.
19.
Mainwaring, Scott (forthcoming) Rethinking Party Systems Theory in the Third Wave of Democratization: The Case of Brazil. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
20.
Mainwaring, Scott and Timothy R. Scully (1995) `Party Systems in Latin America', in Scott Mainwaring and Timothy R. Scully (eds) Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America, pp. 1-34. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
21.
Nicolau, Jairo Marconi (1995) `De Desproporcionalidades e Reformas Eleitorais', Monitor Público2(6) (July-August): 37-42.
22.
Nicolau, Jairo Marconi (1996) Multipartidarismo e Democracia: Um Estudo sobre o Sistema Partidário Brasileiro (1985-94). Rio de Janeiro: Fundação Getúlio Vargas.
23.
Nohlen, Dieter , ed. (1993) Enciclopedia Electoral Latinoamericana y del Cáribe. San José: Instituto Interamericano de Derechos Humanos.
24.
O'Donnell, Guillermo (1994) `Delegative Democracy', The Journal of Democracy5(1): 55-69.
25.
Pedersen, Mogens N. (1983) `Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility in European Party Systems, 1948-1977: Explorations in Explanation', in Hans Daalder and Peter Mair (eds) Western European Party Systems: Continuity and Change, pp. 29-66. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
26.
Przeworski, Adam (1975) `Institutionalization of Voting Patterns, or is Mobilization the Source of Decay?'American Political Science Review69: 49-67.
27.
Remmer, Karen L. (1985) `Redemocratization and the Impact of Authoritarian Rule in Latin America', Comparative Politics18: 253-275.
28.
Remmer, Karen L. (1991) `The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s', American Political Science Review85: 777-800.
29.
Roberts, Kenneth M. and Erik Wibbels (1997) `Party Systems and Electoral Volatility in Latin America: A Test of Economic, Institutional, and Structural Explanations', paper for the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, 28-31 August.
30.
Samuels, David J. (forthcoming) `Incentives to Cultivate a Party Vote in Candidate-Centric Electoral Systems: Evidence from Brazil', Comparative Political Studies.
31.
Schattschneider, Elmer E. (1942) Party Government. New York: Farrar and Rinehart.
32.
Shugart, Matthew Soberg and John Carey (1992) Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
33.
Soares, Gláucio Ary Dillon (1973) Sociedade e Política no Brasil. São Paulo: Difusão Européia do Livro.
34.
von Mettenheim, Kurt (1995) The Brazilian Voter: Mass Politics in Democratic Transition, 1974-1986. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
35.
Weyland, Kurt (1996) Democracy Without Equity: Failures of Reform in Brazil. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.
