This study examines the deterrent effect of the short-term application of police paramilitary units. The police in Buffalo conducted 39 police paramilitary unit raids during a two-day period in 2012. It is hypothesized that if police paramilitary units are used then there will be a reduction in calls for service, Part 1 crimes and drug arrests. The effect of the police paramilitary unit raids at micro-place street units was estimated by drawing a comparable sample of control units via propensity score modeling. A fixed effects negative binomial panel model was estimated for counts 35 weeks before and 35 weeks after the intervention. Calls for service and drug arrests increased in the treated areas compared with controls. There is slight evidence of a deterrent effect for Part 1 crimes in the two weeks after the intervention. The null findings suggest that, at best, police paramilitary unit raids have a short-term deterrent effect on crime.
AndenaesJ (1974) Punishment and Deterrence. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
3.
AngristJDPischkeJS (2009) Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist’s Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
4.
BragaAABondBJ (2008) Policing crime and disorder hot spots: a randomized controlled trial. Criminology46: 577–607.
5.
BragaAAKennedyDMWaringEJPiehlAM (2001) Problem-oriented policing, deterrence, and youth violence: An evaluation of Boston’s Operation Ceasefire. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency38(3): 195–225.
6.
BragaAAPapachristosAVHureauDM (2010) The concentration and stability of gun violence at micro places in Boston, 1980–2008. Journal of Quantitative Criminology26: 33–53.
7.
BragaAAPapachristosAVHureauDM (2012) An ex post facto evaluation framework for place-based police interventions. Evaluation Review35: 592–626.
CameronACTrivediPK (2013) Regression Analysis of Count Data. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
10.
ChaikenJM (1978) What is known about deterrent effects of police activities. In: CramerJA (ed) Preventing Crime. Beverly Hills, CA: SAGE, 109–135.
11.
ChappellATLanza-KaduceL (2010) Police academy socialization: understanding the lessons learned in a paramilitary–bureaucratic organization. Journal of Contemporary Ethnography39: 187–214.
12.
CohnEG (1990) Weather and crime. British Journal of Criminology30: 51–64.
13.
CohnEGRottonJ (2000) Weather, seasonal trends and property crimes in Minneapolis, 1987–88: a moderator-variable time-series analysis of routine activities. Journal of Environmental Psychology20: 257–272.
14.
CookTDCampbellDT (1979) Quasi-experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings. Chicago: Rand McNally.
15.
CrankJPKadleckCKoskiCM (2010) The USA: the next big thing. Police Practice & Research11: 405–422.
16.
DurlaufSNNaginDS (2011) Imprisonment and crime. Criminology & Public Policy10: 13–54.
17.
EckJE (2005) Crime hot spots: what they are, why we have them, and how to map them. In: EckJEChaineySCameronJGLeitnerMWilsonRE (eds) Mapping Crime: Understanding Hot Spots. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice.
18.
FalconeDNWellsLEWeisheitRA (2002) The small-town police department. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management25: 371–384.
19.
FieldS (1992) The effect of temperature on crime. British Journal of Criminology32: 340–351.
20.
GibbsJP (1975) Crime, Punishment, and Deterrence. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
21.
GibbsJP (1988) Toward theories about criminal justice. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice4: 20–36.
22.
GreenL (1995) Cleaning up drug hot spots in Oakland, California: the displacement and diffusion effects. Justice Quarterly12: 737–754.
23.
HerzogS (2001) Militarization and demilitarization processes in the Israeli and American police forces: organizational and social aspects. Policing & Society: An International Journal of Research & Policy11: 181–208.
24.
HilbeJM (2007) Negative Binomial Regression. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
25.
HillSBegerR (2009) A paramilitary policing juggernaut. Social Justice36(1): 25–40.
26.
HinkleJCWeisburdD (2008) The irony of broken windows policing: a microplace study of the relationship between disorder, focused police crackdowns and fear of crime. Journal of Criminal Justice36: 503–512.
27.
HinkleJCWeisburdDFamegaCReadyJ (2013) The problem is not just sample size: The consequences of low base rates in policing experiments in smaller cities. Evaluation Review37: 213–238.
28.
Institute for Intergovernmental Research (2015) After-Action Assessment of the Police Response to the August 2014 Demonstrations in Ferguson, Missouri. COPS Office Critical Response Initiative. Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services.
29.
JangHLeeCBHooverLT (2012) Dallas’ disruption unit: efficacy of hot spots deployment. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management35: 593–614.
KellingGLPateTDiekmanDBrownCE (1974) The Kansas City Preventative Patrol Experiment: A Summary Report. Washington, DC: Police Foundation.
32.
KimMde GuzmanMC (2012) Police paradigm shift after the 9/11 terrorist attacks: the empirical evidence from the United States municipal police departments. Criminal Justice Studies: A Critical Journal of Crime, Law & Society25: 323–342.
33.
KoperCS (1995) Just enough police presence: reducing crime & disorderly behavior by optimizing patrol time in crime hot spots. Justice Quarterly12: 649–671.
34.
KraskaPB (1996) Enjoying militarism: political/personal dilemmas in studying U.S. police paramilitary units. Justice Quarterly13: 405–429.
35.
KraskaPB (1999) Questioning the militarization of U.S. police: critical versus advocacy scholarship. Policing & Society: An International Journal of Research & Policy9: 141–155.
36.
KraskaPB (2007) Militarization and policing: its relevance to 21st century police. Policing: A Journal of Policy & Practice1: 501–513.
37.
KraskaPBCubellisLJ (1997) Militarizing mayberry and beyond: Making sense of american paramilitary policing. Justice quarterly14(4): 607–629.
38.
KraskaPBKappelerVE (1997) Militarizing American police: the rise and normalization of paramilitary units. Social Problems44: 1–18.
39.
KraskaPBPaulsenDJ (1997). Grounded research into U.S. paramilitary policing: forging the iron fist inside the velvet glove. Policing & Society: An International Journal of Research & Policy7: 253–270.
40.
LawtonBATaylorRBLuongoAJ (2005) Police officers on drug corners in Philadelphia, drug crime, and violent crime: intended, diffusion, and displacement impacts. Justice Quarterly22: 427–451.
41.
MaxfieldMBabbieE (2014) Research Methods for Criminal Justice and Criminology. Scarborough, ON: Nelson Education.
42.
NunnKB (2002) Race, crime and the pool of surplus criminality: or why the war on drugs was a war on Blacks. Journal of Gender Race and Justice6: 381–446.
43.
OberwittlerDWikstromPH (2009) Why small is better: advancing the study of the role of behavioral contexts in crime causation. In: WeisburdDBernascoWBruinsmaG (eds) Putting Crime in its Place: Units of Analysis in Geographic Criminology. New York, NY: Springer, 35–59.
44.
PateAA (1986) Experimenting with foot patrol: the Newark experience. In: RosenbaumDP (ed) Community Crime Prevention: Does it Work?Newbury Park, CA: SAGE.
45.
RottonJCohnEG (2000) Violence is a curvilinear function of temperature in Dallas: a replication. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology78: 1074–1081.
46.
RosenbaumPRubinD (1983) The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika70(1): 41–55.
47.
RosenbaumPRubinD (1985) Constructing a control group using multivariate matched sampling methods that incorporate the propensity score. American Statistician39(1): 33–38.
48.
SampsonRJRaudenbushSWEarlsF (1997) Neighborhoods and violent crime: a multilevel study of collective efficacy. Science277: 918–924.
49.
SchnelleJFKirchnerREJrCaseyJDUseltonPHJrMcNeesMP (1977) Patrol evaluation research: a multiple-baseline analysis of saturation police patrolling during day and night hours. Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis10, 33–40.
ShermanLWRoganDP (1995) Deterrent effects of police raids on crack houses: a randomized controlled experiment. Justice Quarterly12: 755–781.
52.
ShermanLWWeisburdD (1995) General deterrent effects of police patrol in crime “hot spots”: a randomized controlled trial. Justice Quarterly12: 625–648.
53.
ShermanLWGartinPRBuergerME (1989) Hot spots of predatory crime: routine activities and the criminology of place. Criminology27: 27–55.
54.
SmithMR (2001) Police-led crackdowns and cleanups: an evaluation of a crime control initiative in Richmond, Virginia. Crime & Delinquency47: 60–83.
55.
TonryM (2011) Less imprisonment is no doubt a good thing. Criminology & Public Policy10: 137–152.
56.
US Census Bureau (2010) State & County Quickfacts: Buffalo, NY. Retrieved fromhttp://quickfacts.census.gov(accessed 1 June 2015).
WeisburdD (2015) The law of crime concentration and the criminology of place. Criminology53: 133–157.
59.
WeisburdDEckJE (2004) What can police do to reduce crime, disorder, and fear?The Annals of the American Academy of Political & Social Science593: 42–65.
60.
WeisburdDGillC (2014) Block randomized trials at places: rethinking the limitations of small n experiments. Journal of Quantitative Criminology30: 97–112.
61.
WeisburdDGreenL (1995) Policing drug hot spots: the Jersey City drug market analysis experiment. Justice Quarterly12: 711–735.
62.
WooldridgeJM (2006) Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Mason, OH: Thomson/South-Western.
63.
WordenREBynumTSFrankJ (1994) Police crackdowns on drug abuse and trafficking. In: MacKenzieDLUchidaCD (eds) Drugs and Crime: Evaluating Public Policy Initiatives. Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE, 95–113.
64.
WrightBRCaspiAMoffittTEMiechRASilvaPA (1999) Reconsidering the relationship between SES and delinquency: causation but not correlation. Criminology37: 175–194.
65.
WrightBRCaspiAMoffittTEPaternosterR (2004) Does the perceived risk of punishment deter criminally prone individuals? Rational choice, self-control, and crime. Journal of Research in Crime & Delinquency41: 180–213.
