Global Social Policy Digest 23.1: Cost of living increases and looming crises

Redistribution

The cost-of-living increases continue to be significant from a global social policy perspective. Rises in energy and food prices have a disproportionate effect on households further down the income distribution who are often unable to account for price increases felt on a broad range of daily living items. United Nations Development Programme estimates that surges in energy and food prices have pushed 71 million into poverty in the developing world. ²³ Regions most affected are the Caspian Basin, the Balkans, and sub-Saharan Africa. ²⁴ An Ipsos poll finds that 1 in 4 people are struggling financially in a poll of 11 countries in the Global South. ²⁵ In the United Kingdom, food insecurity increased by 57%, affecting one of seven adults. ²⁶ Latest figures for the European Union (EU) find that in 2020 36 million Europeans were experiencing energy poverty, a figure that has most likely increased in the current climate. ²⁷

To counteract large fractions of the population falling into poverty, governments are responding with cost-of-living support packages. The IMF has found different responses to high energy and food prices in advanced economies in contrast to emerging markets and developing economies. ²⁸ In the former category, the three main policy responses were targeted toward consumption taxes, the use of vouchers or discounts, and cash transfers. In the latter category, the top three policy responses were consumption taxes, price subsidies, and custom duties. ²⁹

To provide an example of the redistributive mechanisms of these packages, we highlight a few responses put in place across the G7 and the Global South. ³⁰ France has capped electricity price increases at 4% until the end of 2022, and in 2023, electricity and gas price increases will be capped at 15% for households. The government also approved increases in public sector pay, pensions, and welfare payments and has scrapped the annual TV license fee. Italy and Germany have issued lump sum payments to workers and pensioners of a few hundred euros to alleviate surging prices. In addition, Germany has experimented with a €9 travel pass to keep the cost of travel affordable to all its citizens. ³¹ Japan has been discussing fuel subsidies and price caps on food imports. In Canada, there have been discussions about lump sum payments for low-income renters and dental programs for children in low-income families. ³² In the Global South, the Kenyan government has responded by raising the minimum wage by 12%. ³³ In Bangladesh, the Higher Court has proposed the government ration essential goods through ration cards; however, it has proven a challenge to families in need. ³⁴ The Chilean government has announced a rescue package of USD $1.2 billion, including a lump sum payment of USD $120 toward a large proportion of the population. ³⁵ This was announced during tax reforms imposed on copper mining royalties and high-income earners that will allow for redistribution toward social reform. ³⁶

These cost-of-living packages are putting pressure on government finances. It is estimated that combined, Austria, Germany, France, Greece, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands have spent over €300 billion on such packages. ³⁷ The GSP Digest 22.3 has reported that countries have started to introduce windfall taxes on extraordinary profits in the energy sector. In September 2022, the EU energy ministers have agreed on a solidarity contribution levied on energy companies with excessive profits to redistribute back to households in need, which is estimated to raise €140 billion. Frans Timmermans, Vice President of the European Commission, mentioned that he expects fossil fuel extractors to return 33% of excess profits. ³⁸ At the same time, the failure of British gas and oil company Shell to pay the windfall tax in the United Kingdom leads to questions surrounding the implementation of these tax agreements. ³⁹

The abovementioned developments bring out the importance of the tax justice debates extensively discussed in previous issues of the GSP Digest. Compared to a few years ago, there is a broader understanding of how tax practices affect society. There is a growing evidence base that feeds into the innovative fiscal policy responses we observe today, including the windfall tax on extraordinary energy profits. The EU tax observatory has estimated that it is possible to raise €80 billion (0.4% of EU GDP) by taxing energy firms at a rate of 33%, this would allow for a lump sum payment of €180 per person, over €700 for a family of four. If taxed at a rate of 50%, this would be over €1000 for a family of four. ⁴⁰

There are noticeable shifts in the way that tax policy is discussed by international organizations. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has previously announced the global minimum corporate tax rate, which is now explicitly being put forward as a tool to finance recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis. ⁴¹ The IMF has recently urged the United Kingdom to provide more support to families and businesses in response to announced tax changes that would benefit those at the upper end of the distribution, and concerns for rising inequality and monetary policy were listed as main concerns. ⁴² In September 2022, the World Bank organized its fourth tax conference on the topic of Global Tax Equity. The UN General Assembly has called for a body overseeing global tax cooperation and international tax standards. ⁴³ These developments provide a strong signal that the taxation of high-net-worth individuals and tax transparency are entering the global sphere. ⁴⁴ Consideration of external border rights for migrants will be considered largely within EU policymaking in the upcoming year as previous lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic and climate crisis drive a need for redistribution and reform to support vulnerable populations.

Rights

The period of June to September 2022 has been characterized as a period of both politicization and cooperation in the sphere of human rights. If drawing conclusions from the elections to the UN Human Rights Council (HRC), Latin America and Asia-Pacific regions have shown marginally higher rates of contestation for a seat at the UN HRC. The African Group, Eastern European Group, and Western European Group held ‘clean slate’ elections (i.e., the number of candidates matched the number of available seats). Six states ran for four Asia-Pacific seats, and three states competed for two seats in the Latin America and Caribbean Group. The 77th UN General Assembly elected 14 new Council members in October 2022: Algeria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Chile, Costa Rica, Georgia, Germany, Kyrgyzstan, Maldives, Morocco, Romania, South Africa, Sudan, Viet Nam. ⁴⁵ The members of the Council shall serve for a period of 3 years starting in January 2023.

As a sign of a significant clash in global human rights, the 51st session of the UN HRC discussed the necessity to monitor permanently the situation of human rights in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China. On 31 August 2022, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published an assessment of human rights concerns related to that issue, and the JUSCANZ (a group of countries originally founded by Japan, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand but that now also includes others) and EU groupings decided to push for a draft resolution, which would have established a debate on the situation in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in February 2023. As a result, the Council rejected the draft decision by vote (17 votes in favor, 19 against, 11 abstentions). Contrary to the failure of China, the JUSCANZ and EU grouping succeeded in the creation of a special rapporteur to monitor the human rights situation in the Russian Federation and report in September 2023 (17 votes in favor, 6 against, and 24 abstentions). ⁴⁶

Among the highlights in global human rights, the appointment of an Austrian lawyer and UN official, Dr. Volker Türk, as the next UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. As noted by the civil society organizations, Dr. Türk has an intimate understanding of the UN system manifested in the advancement of the human rights efforts of the UN Secretariat: The renowned Secretary-General’s report ‘Our Common Agenda’ and the 2020 ‘Call to Action for Human Rights’ by Antonio Guterres. ⁴⁷ The Call to Action highlights key priorities through which the UN system could be enhanced:

(1) rights at the core of sustainable development; (2) rights in times of crisis; (3) gender equality and equal rights for women; (4) public participation and civic space; (5) rights of future generations, especially climate justice; (6) rights at the heart of collective action; and (7) new frontiers of human rights. ⁴⁸

The new frontiers involve digitalization of welfare systems, protection of the right to privacy, response to human rights violations from businesses, and advocacy for a ban on lethal autonomous weapon systems.

As presented in the June 2022 annual report of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the COVID-19 pandemic represents a challenge of unprecedented proportions to the implementation of the 2030 Agenda and has demonstrated the fragility of development processes when not anchored in human rights. ⁴⁹ To be able to deliver on its mandate, the human rights monitoring of the OHCHR has shifted its methodology toward online monitoring tools and hybrid conferencing, which UN High Commissioner found constraining. The backlog of reports of states reporting to the 10 treaty bodies has increased to 434, which has put the OHCHR under bureaucratic pressure.

In the June session of the HRC, special attention was brought to the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the realization of the equal enjoyment of the right to education by every girl. ⁵⁰ According to the report, the COVID-19 pandemic risks reversing decades of human rights progress as the preexisting inequalities in the enjoyment of the right to education have been exacerbated. Based on the analysis, the report recommends that in responding to and recovering from the pandemic multiple stakeholders prioritize reopening schools and/or keep schools open, considering the significant discriminatory impact of school closures on marginalized learners, especially girls belonging to marginalized groups.

The June 2022 Report of the Working Group on the issue of human rights and transnational corporations and other business enterprises highlighted that global unemployment is expected to remain above prepandemic levels until at least 2023. ⁵¹ The pandemic exacerbated many existing problems, including problematic government public procurement practices, notably in the context of purchasing personal protection equipment, and the lack of respect for workers’ rights, especially in global supply chains. As for a conclusion, the Working group recommended that states and business should ensure that pandemic responses contribute to building back better in the longer term, including by tackling poverty, inequalities, and underinvestment in health care and public services, to build a more inclusive and sustainable world.

The July report by Special Rapporteur on sanctions focused on the negative impact of secondary sanctions and overcompliance within the sanction regimes. The Special Rapporteur expresses concern about report that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other providers of humanitarian assistance have encountered frequent difficulties when working in countries, causing some to withdraw from those countries. She notes that essentially all of the problems faced by such groups are attributable to over compliance because their work involves the provision of goods and services that are exempted from sanctions for humanitarian reasons. Consequently, deliveries of food, medicine, vaccines, and other essential goods are not reaching vulnerable populations in sanctioned countries. ⁵²

Social protection

International agencies have debated how social protection can help in alleviating the effects of the unfolding cost-of-living increases. According to a new report by the UN’s Global Crisis Response Group (GCRG), around 1.6 billion people from 94 countries feel crisis effects in some way, and around 1.2 billion people have become particularly vulnerable. Since poor people are most affected by the cost-of-living increases, the GCRG declares the expansion of social protection as an essential measure to save lives and livelihoods. Low levels of social protection coverage, which are common in low- and lower-income countries, exacerbate the problem since households are forced into types of behavior that further deteriorate their ability to cope with the crisis—which involves reductions in spending on health, an increasing prevalence of child labor, and the closing down of businesses. Since fiscal space for social protection in poorer countries is notoriously low, the GCRG vigorously promotes international support and warns that otherwise, crisis effects might spill over to more affluent countries, result in food catastrophes, and increase political instability around the world. Circa USD $1.2 trillion per year is needed to fill the social protection gap in developing countries, according to International Labour Organization (ILO) calculations—and even more to meet other SDG goals. ⁵³

The 2022 UN General Assembly saw world leaders, international financial institutions, UN agencies, and other participants in the broad agreement of the value of social protection as a crisis response measure. On the one hand, it is thus indicative of a general consensus of the beneficial nature of social protection in crisis contexts; on the other hand, it is unclear how much of this talk will lead to substantial action. Participants at the Assembly stressed their support of the UN’s Global Accelerator on Jobs and Social Protection for Just Transitions. The initiative, as previously reported on in past editions of the Digest, has the goal of creating not only 400 million jobs but also extending social protection to all, who are not yet covered, by the year 2030. Launched during the COVID-19 pandemic by the UN and the ILO, the Accelerator is now discussed as a potential solution to a number of interlocking crises, including the current cost-of-living increases. ⁵⁴ Still, within current discourses on social protection, positions strongly diverge on the question if universal or targeted transfers should be favored as well as around the scope and duration of proposed measures, that is, if largely temporary social protection measures, implemented to alleviate immediate crisis effects, should be made permanent.

Several publications come out in favor of more targeted types of social protection. The aforementioned GCRG, for instance, advocates for the expansion of temporary measures to counter the immediate crisis through targeted and time-bound emergency social protection that is explicitly not based on norms of universality, while remaining consistent with SDG standards. ⁵⁵ Based on estimates and simulations of poverty and vulnerability, and the effects of social protection policy responses, the UNDP finds that cash transfers are more effective measures to combat poverty in the current cost-of-living increases than energy subsidies. Taking the same line as the GCRG, the document, published as part of the UN High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development, advocates for targeted and temporary transfers to the needy rather than more universal transfers. ⁵⁶

In a similar vein, the World Bank argues that the expansion of targeted transfers constitutes a necessary step toward the final goal of universal social protection. In an update of its social protection strategy, termed the Social Protection and Jobs Compass, the World Bank responds to the challenges instituted by the multiple crises currently haunting the world. According to the document, climate change, adverse side effects of technological innovation, conflicts, and the pandemic all together continue to disrupt economies around the globe and simultaneously show the value of social protection, not only to avert poverty in the short-term but also to build human capital for a long-term productive societal benefit. While the Compass renews the Bank’s commitment to universal social protection as a fundamental goal to achieve a world free of poverty, the Bank argues that those most needy should still be prioritized, which means that universality remains but an ultimate goal that is to be only gradually attained. For that reason, the document promotes building strong foundational social protection systems, increasing coverage and resilience, scaling up effective labor systems and creating more fiscal space for social protection, while leaving the exact format of social protection open, which the Bank states should be based on the specific country conditions in question. Achieving effective targeting systems thus remains World Bank policy in relation to social protection. The updated strategy particularly emphasizes resilience—not only as a goal of social protection to achieve within countries and poor households but also as a key requirement for social protection systems themselves, in light of the challenges of interlocking crises. The Bank thus draws attention to its concept of adaptive social protection. ⁵⁷

An entirely different position on appropriate social protection in crisis response is held by OECD researchers, who have argued for the increase of in-kind family benefits in the form of early childhood education and child care. The researchers argue that these measures are more appropriate than direct cash payments to the poor, since they strengthen the employment sector, especially by boosting the availability of female workers, and, in effect, the disposable income of households. ⁵⁸ Despite the fact that social protection thus continues to be high up on the agenda of international agencies, it is also still found lacking worldwide. In a number of new publications, the ILO draws attention to social protection coverage gaps for workers in rural areas and those doing domestic work but also takes a closer look at Asia and the Pacific, where these gaps are much more pronounced than in other regions. Around 80% of the global workforce lives in rural areas, and these incorporate some of the most vulnerable categories of workers, including informal, casual, temporary, subcontracted, and day laborers. The 16 case studies of rural economies, that the ILO condenses, highlight social protection gaps as crucial contributors to the vulnerability of rural workers. ⁵⁹ Domestic workers also disproportionately exhibit low rates of social protection coverage, despite the crucial nature of their work, which includes catering to care needs. According to a new report, around half of domestic workers worldwide do not have access to social protection at all, while only a meager 6% have access to comprehensive social protection. Despite drastic differences in coverage between regions, domestic workers experienced the worst effects of the pandemic. ⁶⁰ Asia and the Pacific continue to exhibit comparably low coverage rates of social protection and below-average levels of social protection spending. According to a regional update of the ILO’s World Social Protection Report 2020-22, only 44.1% of the region’s population is at least covered by one social protection benefit, and social protection spending averages 7.5% of GDP, much lower than the global average of 12.9%. A particular problem in Asia and the Pacific relates to the ‘missing middle’, which incorporates all those not covered either by a formal contributory social protection benefit or by a non-contributory means-tested measure, combined with low benefit levels overall. ⁶¹

On the other hand, the G7, in their Leaders’ Communiqué, have committed themselves to accelerate progress toward achieving universal social protection for all by 2030 and emphasize the value of universal social protection, particularly for times of crisis. ⁶² The ILO’s Bureau for Workers’ Activities (ACTRAV) as well as trade unions also continue to advocate for universal social protection rather than for targeted transfers. ACTRAV has compiled a ‘resource package’ for workers’ organizations that is supposed to assist in the promotion of universal social protection coverage. The single components tend to how gender gaps in coverage can be addressed, how the informally employed can receive adequate social protection, how fiscal space for social protection can be increased, how pension models can be implemented, and—generally—how the ILO’s standards can best be enforced. ⁶³ The commitment to social protection by trade unions was also further stressed at the 5th meeting of the Social Protection, Freedom and Justice for Workers Network, which particularly drew attention to the struggles of informal workers. Participants were eager to address the role of workers’ organizations in assisting with appropriate responses to the COVID-19 crisis, including addressing the gender dimension of the crisis and strengthening global solidarity to create more fiscal space. ⁶⁴

Employment and work

The 110th Session of the International Labor Conference (ILC) was held from 27 May to 11 June ⁶⁵ in Geneve and three topics occupied the center of the agenda: occupational safety and health, apprenticeships and social and solidarity economy. On the first one, the most relevant outcome was the resolution ⁶⁶ on the inclusion of a safe and healthy working environment in the ILO Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work. This goes hand in hand with the shared concern of WHO and ILO on mental health issues at work, a dimension that is still taboo at workplaces worldwide. The recent publication of a joint policy brief by WHO and ILO ⁶⁷ contributes to emphasize the importance of putting this issue in the public dialogue. The document is based on data from the World Mental Health Report released in June 2022 ⁶⁸ , and it contains key figures on the impact for workers and the economy, for instance, that depression and anxiety lead to an estimated loss of 12 billion workdays per year. ⁶⁹ It also provides a set of recommendations for governments as well as to conduct organizational interventions, based on international instruments for mental health at work.

Moreover, the 2022 ILC opened the first round of discussions to set a new international labor standard for apprenticeships to address the current regulatory gap on this matter. The starting point was the analysis of the questionnaire included in the 2019 report ⁷⁰ on existing national regulations served. The document ⁷¹ includes the Office commentaries of the Governments, workers’ and employers’ organizations replies as well as the set of conclusions that were considered during the Conference. Regarding the form of the instrument, the general consensus was that it should be a Recommendation. The main reason, as indicated by the majority of respondents, was that it would give the flexibility to acknowledge national specificities. Also, there’s a consensus on the need to take into consideration the already existing frameworks at national, regional, and international levels. In addition, the content of the instrument definition of terms and concepts includes the reference to ‘traineeships’ (on-the-job learning), as distinctive from ‘apprenticeship’ in the light of the replies of the majority of workers’ organizations governments, contrasting with the majority of employers’ organizations lack of support to the proposed definition.

The social and solidarity economy (SSE) became for the first time a high-level debate in the UN system ⁷² and the ILC adoption of a resolution concerning decent work and the SSE put this topic at the center of the ILO agenda. The document sets a definition for SSE organizations that includes enterprises as well as other forms of entities that serve collective interests based on the primacy of people and social purpose over capital in the distribution and use of surpluses and/or profits as well as assets. ⁷³ According to this definition and considering different national contexts, it includes workers cooperatives, social enterprises, foundations and other forms of association which follow the principles of engaged of voluntary cooperation and mutual aid, democratic and/or participatory governance, autonomy and independence. In addition to the guidelines for governments, the ILO, and social partners, it states the main challenges that the SSE faces in terms of informality, legal uncertainty, lacking access to finance, and unfair trade practices.

The importance of addressing informality and enhancing the principles of decent work (employment creation, social protection, rights at work, and social dialogue) in SSE and in micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) emerges as one of the leading trends of the 110th ILC. This was also reflected in the conversations at the World of Work Summit 2022. ⁷⁴ On the 10^th of June, ILC participants, officials of the UN system, academics and academia, and nongovernmental organization actors debated on actions to deal with the impacts of the multiple crises from a human-centered approach. The idea of identifying what must be done differently was the guiding concept for the conversations on how to move forward with the creation of decent work opportunities for the so-called hardest-hit groups, meaning women, young people, refugees, and displaced persons as well as workers of the informal economy, mainly in MSMEs.

Regarding regional analysis of trends in decent work, Asia represents almost two-thirds of the total growth: 42% in China alone, followed by Brazil and the EU, both of which account for 10%. If data are disaggregated by sector, solar photovoltaic emerges as the fastest-growing one (4.3 million jobs), followed by hydropower and biofuels (2.4 million each). With reference to job quality, the report acknowledges that there is a persistent wide range of labor standards, due to local legislations and among sectors, for instance, the utility sector wages are still far better than those in construction. Concerning unionization, that variation can also be identified across countries and industries, but the article highlights some positive achievements, such as the case of one of the largest offshore wind developers from Denmark (Orsted) leading a project for labor agreements for all its contractors and subcontractors which includes a Workforce Equity Committee to promote the employment of women and LGBTQ people. To what extent these particular efforts can be more widely extended depends on stronger public policy interventions. But, it requires a bottom-up social dialogue among all actors involved to warrantee that ‘not only the ultimate outcome of the energy transition but also the process of a decades-long transformation of all economies must be just’. ⁷⁵

In opposition to these progressive tendencies, the gender pay gaps, as documented by international actors is far from being reversed. Specifically, in the health sector, where woman represent nearly 70% of the workforce, the percentage gap is 24%. ⁷⁶ In relation to other economic activities, wages in the health and care sector tend to be lower as in all feminized areas. In line with this, the Global Gender Gap Report 2022, ⁷⁷ published by the World Economic Forum, states that, at the current pace, it will take at least 132 years to close the global gender gap (see Gender). In comparison to 2021 results, the overall gender parity score increased only from 67.9% to 68.1%, while the regional disparities show little shift in their imbalances. North America is at the top having closed 76.9% of its gender gap, followed by Europe with 76.6% of its own. Latin America and the Caribbean are in third place with 72.6% while East Asia and the Pacific are at 69.1% and 69%, respectively. Further down, sub-Saharan Africa has closed its gender gap at 67.8% and the Middle East and North Africa stand at 63.4%. The lowest performance is in South Asia, with a percentage of 62.4%.

Another highlight in the world of work is related to the debates on just transition and green jobs. The article by the International Renewable Energy Agency in collaboration with the ILO provides data to analyze the impact of the renewable energy sector in job creation against the background of negative COVID-19 consequences on global labor markets. ⁷⁸ With 12.7 million positions created in 2021, it portrays an optimistic scenario for the 2030 energy transition goal estimated to create a total of 139 million jobs. In an effort to combat the effects of the climate crisis, establishing a network and opportunity for green jobs can help get the world back on track to slowing climate threats and meeting SDGs.

Environment and climate justice

The recent COVID-19 crisis, the armed conflict in Ukraine, and now the cost-of-living increases constitute the triple disasters that have brought the world to a state of quagmire. Specifically, the cost-of-living increases have a co-relation with the climate crisis, and this nexus has direct impacts on global welfare and well-being. But the climate change crisis has exacerbated the cost-of-living and vice versa, especially from the oil and agricultural sectors. That is, fossil fuels increased the cost-of-living as companies such as Shell, Total, Exxonmobil, and BP hiked prices disguising themselves in the armed conflict in Ukraine which had a multiplier effect on prices of other commodities. ⁷⁹ Also, big agri-chemical companies have leveraged the oil-inflation to increase food prices because they have several farmers dependent on synthetic nitrogen fertilizer made from fossil fuel gas. ⁸⁰ As such, the inflation has created opportunities for making ‘windfall’ profits for the big companies, for instance, BP has made USD $8.5 billion—its biggest windfall in the last 14 years, ⁸¹ and Exxon Mobil USD $17.9 billion. In sum, the UN head António Guterres called the record profits in the oil industry immoral as they hit almost USD $ 100 billion of combined profits in the first quarter of this year. ⁸² In addition, the consumption-based economic consume-as-you-go model powered by e-commerce with which you can get anything from anywhere, anytime, has been achieved at a high cost for the planet.

Although the cost of living is assumed to be an opportunity to move to sustainable lifestyles, ⁸³ it has dire consequences and implications. For one, inflation will affect climate financing where most funds for investing in environmental projects could be redirected to state subsidies for basic survival needs. This may increase the debt burden of individual nation-states that may have to acquire loans to sustain their economies (see Global Social Governance and Redistribution). This is reflected in the failure to fulfill pledges for financing in Africa. ⁸⁴ To this effect, the Nationally Determined Contributions may also be reduced or delayed to meet hunger and energy needs, which in the long-run will slowdown the race to net zero. Second, it has increased inequality and vulnerability of the poor households as well as the middle class who were not previously vulnerable. ⁸⁵ It has also increased the energy crisis which is also impacting the increase in rent and utility payments by landlords ⁸⁶ due to the soaring gas prices, alongside low wages. ⁸⁷ Consequently, inflation is causing a crisis of survival as it is bound to sustain the economies and profits of big companies as opposed to sustaining lives. Thus, the cost-of-living increases are leading to the crossroads of opportunity cost—where the alternatives foregone would be very basic for the survival of populations globally, especially large populations in the Global South ⁸⁸ as well as Black, native, Hispanic Americans, and people of color communities in the Global North.^89,90 This could create a dilemma between heating and eating, which could imply foregoing some meals to pay for energy bills during winter for individuals and families.

Moreover, various interventions have been advanced to address the ongoing crises, for instance, taxing the windfall profits in the energy sector to encourage decarbonization of energy generation (see Redistribution). ⁹¹ This is intended to ensure environmental justice through ‘diverting the money to vulnerable nations suffering worsening losses from the climate crisis’. ⁹² Also, there are prospects to de-carbonize farms dependent on synthetic fertilizer; construction of sustainable cities that reduce urban heat island effects and cooling needs in buildings, clean air, ⁹³ and more. Another way is to revisit urban planning which promotes biking, walking, and public transport, exempting fruits, vegetables, and rail from taxes and imposing taxes on meat and kerosene. However, some solutions such as not consuming energy or skipping meals are only idealistic and do not necessarily address the substantial underlying difficulties of everyday realities.

Nonetheless, these crises and interventions rotate back to the need for changing systems through strong, visionary leadership. In many respects, the upcoming 27th Conference of Parties (COP27) due to take place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, from 6 to 18 November 2022 ⁹⁴ is a prospective avenue to discuss and act on the on-going interdependent economic and geo-political turbulences, with a vision ‘focusing on how the world pays for the estimated USD $125 trillion bill to tackle climate change by 2050’. ⁹⁵ A provisional agenda was developed ahead of the conference to discuss matters pertaining to organizational issues, reporting, adaptation, loss and damage, finance, development and transfer of technologies, capacity building, least developed countries, gender, equitable representation. ⁹⁶ and more.

In addition, the COP27 presidency engaged global climate leaders at the Petersberg climate dialogue in Berlin, Germany, with environment ministers from close to 40 countries. ⁹⁷ The ministers pledged to ‘build on the outcomes from Glasgow through recognizing the new headwinds and tailwinds which the world presents for global climate cooperation and action’. Later, United States President Joe Biden signed an inflation reduction act (IRA) with the intention of cutting the social costs of climate change through: (i) reducing expensive property damage from sea level rise and natural disasters and (ii) reducing costs related to increasing temperatures, with hope that the law could cut the social costs of climate change by up to USD $1.9 trillion by 2050. ⁹⁸ In the course of events, both the United Kingdom’s COP26 and Egypt’s COP27 presidencies published a summary of informal consultations on loss and damage caused to those on the battlefront of the climate crisis, for which they recognized the need for enhanced funding. ⁹⁹ Specifically, various catastrophes have happened in 2022 including wildfires in Afghanistan, Tunisia; volcanic eruptions in the Philippines; flooding in Bangladesh, India, Gambia, Sudan, Pakistan, South Africa, Nigeria, and Honduras. ¹⁰⁰ In this regard, COP27 President-Designate, Sameh Shoukry vowed not to leave anyone behind with major reference to small island states. ¹⁰¹ With due regard, immediate action is imperative for leaders to ensure that all communities on the frontlines acquire redress for the injustices suffered as well as a collective responsibility to achieve the set goals. These may take the form of holding the offenders accountable for the injustices caused, in addition to the loss and damage compensation. Henceforth, these matters demand steadfast attention and action to reduce the environmental casualties and victims, causing uprooting of populations and forced migration, resulting from ignoring the bells and sirens of nature.

Migration

The cost-of-living increases considering the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, armed conflict in Ukraine, and climate and energy crises have caused a surge in migration around the world, driving people out of their homes due to rising costs. Currently, there are more than 1 billion migrants in the world, and this continues to increase as international crises and prices and inflation rise. As an outcome of the armed conflict in Ukraine, mass migration has been largely impacted by a weakened global food system. ¹⁰² The armed conflict in Ukraine, along with simultaneous international crises, has further perpetuated already existing and worsening inequality issues and exacerbated poverty largely within developing nations and poor populations. ¹⁰³ The growing phenomena of migration have highlighted the need for international entities to collaborate and identify policies that protect the worsening conditions for migrants, including both internally and externally displaced persons, and the increasing patterns of mixed migration streams. ¹⁰⁴

Climate change has had a drastic impact on migration and continues to worsen. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underlined the detrimental impacts of the climate crisis, seen through rising sea levels, increasing drought, and the constant warming of the global temperature (see Environment and Climate Justice). ¹⁰⁵ The direct impact of climate change can be seen throughout global migration, with a prediction of about 143 million people forced to relocate over the next 30 years. ¹⁰⁶

In 2022, the world, particularly EU member states, has seen an increase in migrant populations due to technological, geopolitical, and environmental challenges, impacting both forced and chosen migration and mobility. ¹⁰⁷ Moreover, international organizations prompt EU migration measures to be improved in accordance with rising levels of food prices, cost-of-living increases, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and armed conflict in Ukraine. ¹⁰⁸ The instability within countries of origin of migrant populations has been faced with the economic impacts of the pandemic and global crises, leaving behind a decrease in population and fragmented infrastructure. Main migration routes due to new policies implemented by EU nations, such as an increase in border control to refuse migrants and refugees attempting to enter Greece, have forced main migration routes to drastically change and further place migrants and refugees in danger. ¹⁰⁹ Since newly established policies obstruct migrants and refugees from entering Greece and a lack of transparency around policies, the EU has demanded transparency regarding Greece’s response to current and future migrants, refugees, and asylum seekers. ¹¹⁰ Issues surrounding the Taliban overthrow in Afghanistan and increased tensions in Libya and Syria have been overshadowed by the armed conflict in Ukraine, highlighting the long-existing migration patterns that have increased drastically in recent years. ¹¹¹ Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen, Myanmar, Burkina Faso, and Chad have also suffered from a loss in population due to internal conflicts, forcing a historical number of 100 million people to be displaced.^112,113

In June, the Council of the EU adopted a reform to the Schengen borders code, including three new provisions to improve policies around migration. The reformed code includes providing new tools to organize oncoming migration flows and patterns, ascertaining a legal framework that aims to improve the health of migrants externally, and an overall update to the legal framework which aims to safeguard free movement within the migration. ¹¹⁴ Collaterally, the armed conflict in Ukraine, worsening cost-of-living increases and climate change, calls for heightened international support surrounding the governance of migration and mobility, which is predicted to be affected for many years to come. ¹¹⁵ The WHO published the first world report examining the health of refugees and migrants, offering prevention measures, good practice suggestions to protect health, and called for mobility across multilateral international entities to promote the health of these populations (see Health). ¹¹⁶

Health

On 23 July, WHO Secretary-General Tedros declared the Mpox outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern to accelerate international cooperation in order to contain the outbreak. While being neglected as an endemic disease in central and West Africa, the disease has spread to 75 countries across all WHO regions with 5 deaths and 17,186 total cases at the day of the declaration. As a next step, global health experts demand the creation of a global action plan that would strengthen national health systems and accelerate scientific cooperation and the sharing of vaccines and therapeutics. ¹¹⁷ However, there is the concern that vaccine inequality and vaccine nationalism that spurred the spread of COVID-19 will repeat itself with Mpox vaccines. Most of the vaccines exist only in bulk form and bringing them to people would take months, and wealthier nations (that are also reporting the largest outbreaks) have been quickest to get vaccines. ¹¹⁸ In the meantime, the second meeting of the WHO Intergovernmental Negotiating Body took place, which works toward a new pandemic legal accord. While there is broad agreement among member-states that there is a need for some sort of pandemic treaty, there is still contestation about the scope of legally binding elements. ¹¹⁹ Furthermore, the World Bank established the new Financial Intermediary Fund (FIF) for Pandemic Prevention, Preparedness, and Response in September. While the Fund was formally established as part of the inaugural meeting of the Governing Board, it is not yet in operation. There will be a Technical Advisory Board, which is chaired by the WHO, while the World Bank will host its secretariat. There are already US $1.4 billion announced as a financial commitment to the Fund. ¹²⁰

Concerning vaccine inequality and nationalism in regard to COVID-19 (see previous GSP Digest from 20.3 on), it is important to note that on 17 June 2022, the 12th Ministerial Conference adopted the TRIPS Waiver agreement, which was started based on an initiative of several Global South countries. However, the agreement has widely been criticized to be a ‘Sliver of a Waiver’ ¹²¹ that would not accomplish the initial objective of global equitable access to COVID-19 and treating live-saving technology to combat COVID-19 as a global public good. First, it is only limited to vaccines and excludes therapeutics and diagnostics. Second, it only increases export under a compulsory license which still comes with a royalty fee. Furthermore, it waives only patent rights but does not apply to other intellectual property, such as trade secrets, which would be crucial in order to build up manufacturing in low- and middle-income countries. Disappointed by the outcome, the WHO Council on the Economics of Health for All did not mince words and states that considering it ‘took Members 18 months to agree on a way forward despite an ongoing global health crisis, the approved deal is a cause for concern’. ¹²²

In regard to non-communicable diseases and the ‘cost-of-living increases’, the latest The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World states that globally the number of people suffering from hunger rose within 2021 to 828 million. Moreover, the number of persons that are not able to access a healthy diet increased to almost 3.1 billion, an increase of 112 million. While those increases are largely blamed to be due to uneven recoveries from COVID-19, the report expects further increases due to the armed conflict in Ukraine, in the words of the UN GCRG on Food, Energy and Finance created ‘the greatest cost-of-living increases in a generation ¹²³ because it has triggered massive increases of prices rise for cereals, fertilizers, and energy. To solve the food crisis, the report advocates to reintegrate Ukraine’s and Russia’s food and fertilizer production into global markets and increasing the fiscal space of developing countries by, for example, emitting Special Drawing Rights through the IMF, which would enable them to put comprehensive social protection measures in place (see GSP Digest 21.3). ¹²⁴

In the first World report on the health of refugees and migrants, the WHO addresses the inequality that migrant workers, particularly low-skilled ones, suffer from more detrimental health outcomes than the hosting communities. The report shows that they are not inherently less healthy, but that this difference is due to the social conditions with which migrants and refugees have to cope in the receiving countries. The report highlights the importance of inclusive health systems and notes that the inclusion of such migrants and refugees is crucial within the agenda of right to health for all and universal health coverage. ¹²⁵ The latest Women in Global Health report Subsidizing Global Health: Women’s Unpaid Work in Health Systems investigates calculates that six million women work unpaid or underpaid in community health roles (see Gender). However, in some countries, women also work unpaid as nurses. They fulfill important roles in national health systems, such as providing diagnostic treatment, health education, psychosocial support, and supporting the relationship between health services and community members. However, not only women take up unpaid roles in health systems, but also men. They do so to a less extent and the gender gap in the health sector is 28% due to allocation to low-status roles (the gap would be higher if it included unpaid work). Also, women are usually the first to be in contact with patients, often not equipped with the necessary protection, which makes their health community service even more dangerous for them. ¹²⁶ Education as a social determinant of health can be seen as a threatened entity with continuing crises and cost-of-living increases, forcing youth and adolescents to leave behind education to offset external pressures (see Education). The current impacts of a loss in proper education have implications to impact future generations’ health and well-being.

Education

Among the balancing act of opening up public life in a period of rising COVID-19 cases in September, OECD, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and World Bank published insights from their now fourth survey on education responses to the school closures during the pandemic. ¹²⁷ At least half of the 93 countries surveyed have introduced measures to reach disengaged students for re-enrollment, like cash transfers and community mobilization. In addition, a majority improved infrastructure such as enhanced cleaning facilities. Nonetheless, UNESCO estimates that still 244 million children and youth between the ages of 6 and 18 worldwide are out of school. ¹²⁸

Despite these revelations, a lack of data on the impact of school closures becomes apparent so far. There are few studies trying to actually map the impacts of school closures on children’s cognitive and noncognitive skills. The international organizations administering the survey implore countries to instigate a ‘regular and inclusive learning assessment culture’, which leverages possibilities for different forms of assessment. These data should then be used to flexibly adjust the curriculum to help children recover their learning losses as quickly as possible.

In the same vein, the OECD in July asked the question ‘Who Cares about Using Education Research in Policy and Practice?’ The report starts from the consensus that teachers’ and policy makers’ involvement in research can make that research more relevant and reinforce its use. To advance stakeholders need incentives for engaging in and with research, traditional academic incentives constitute a hindrance to the co-operation of practitioners and researchers. Thus, the authors argue that funding mechanisms should be better aligned with the needs of ‘high-quality research-policy-practice’ engagement. ¹²⁹

From 16 to 19 September, UNESCO held the Transforming Education Summit, which was intended as a starting point to ‘reboot education systems’. ¹³⁰ During the summit 130 countries committed to prioritize education; albeit with different foci. Only half of the countries prioritize addressing learning losses, and only a third aim at supporting the psycho-social well-being of students and teachers. At the summit, the International Financing Facility for Education (IFFEd) was launched. ¹³¹ This is the first-of-its-kind finance facility, and it was developed in partnership with the UN, the Governments of Sweden, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands as well as the Asian and African Development Bank. The IFFEd will provide an initial USD $2 billion in additional affordable funding for education programs to be disbursed starting in 2023 and could unlock an extra USD $10 billion of additional financing for education and skills by 2030. In terms of digitalization, at the Transforming Education Summit, UNESCO and UNICEF launched Gateways to Public Digital Learning, a global, multipartner initiative to support countries in securing equitable access to digital learning resources. ¹³² Also, the Teacher Task Force used the summit to launch a new advocacy campaign that aims at raising the status of the teaching profession, among others through targeted support by governments and donor organizations. ¹³³

The UN Economics Commission for Africa urges African countries to increase funding for higher education. Its recent report titled Existential Priorities for the African Continent Trade Area prompts that the success of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will crucially depend on the capacities of universities and science academies on the continent to produce adequate and broad-based experts. ¹³⁴ The authors are convinced that challenges that threaten the emergence of an African free trade bloc could be overcome through the transformation of higher education. They argue that, if an AfCFTA were to arise, universities should lead in finding solutions to practical challenges of implementation, low levels of industrialization and poor infrastructure. Among these discussions students of the University of Zimbabwe have filed an application at the High Court because of an expected hike in tuition fees for the university. ¹³⁵

In the reported period the armed conflict in Ukraine still impacts schools and students in multiple ways. Inflation for instance impacts the delivery and quality of school meals as schools struggle with rising prices. ¹³⁶ More direct impacts are that, according to an article by the New York Times, Russian-Speaking pupils around Europe increasingly face bullying and harassment. ¹³⁷ Also tertiary education is affected by the conflict; as Russia’s higher education sector is seriously hurt as ‘many European governments, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Poland, Norway, Latvia, and Lithuania have asked their universities to cut ties with Russia entirely’. ¹³⁸ However, Universities are divided on these demands, especially because sanctioning individual Russian students and academics could make the lives of those actually opposed to the invasion ‘more challenging’. ¹³⁹ That is also why, for instance, Belgian universities will continue to welcome Russian students, so long as they apply individually and not through their institutions. ¹⁴⁰

As tertiary education became more important, its institutional outlines developed in diverse ways. Taking this as a starting point, the OECD attempted to map these different shapes and forms of professional programs also called higher Vocational Education and Training (VET). ¹⁴¹ The diversity, however, makes cross-country comparisons quite difficult as there is currently no common ‘dictionary’ for the different programs – in particular for those programs that combine both an academic and a professional part such as for teachers, nurses, or medical doctors. A proposed three-way classification is said to mitigate these problems. However, the way to a cross-nationally applicable classification scheme seems lengthy and full of obstacles.

In June, the UNESCO Institute for Lifelong Learning (UIL) held the 7th International Conference on Adult Education in Morocco. ¹⁴² Delegates of 142 member states as well as an abundance of civil society actors agreed upon the Marrakech Framework for Action which recognizes the need for increased adult participation in learning. In addition, the framework entails commitments to increased financial support. In conjunction with the conference, the UIL published the fifth edition of the Global Report on Adult Learning and Education (GRALE). It introduces data in the three fields of adult education: literacy and basic skills; vocational skills and professional development; and citizenship skills. ¹⁴³ In particular, the report indicates that three-quarters of participating countries are developing or already implementing policies in relation to citizenship education. Also, GRALE finds that the main challenge for adult education remains to be reaching those who need it most, despite advances in online distance learning schemes for adults. ¹⁴⁴ Yet, the recent expansion of mechanisms for the recognition, validation, and accreditation of non- or informal learning suggests that education systems are transitioning to lifelong learning systems. However, there is still a great deal of progress to be made for many countries. A look at the Compare Your Country database by the OECD makes the stark differences in of adults’ skills very apparent. For instance, the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies survey reveals that in Sweden 44% of participants showed relevant problem-solving skills while in Turkey the amount was 8%. Similarly, on average, adults in the highest performing countries have a more than 80 score-point advantage (or more than 10 years of formal schooling) on the literacy and numeracy dimensions over the adult population in the lowest performing countries. ¹⁴⁵ Other issues highlighting disparities in progress among educational systems can be seen largely in gendered gaps. Harmful gender norms and stereotypes play an important role in education. An example is girls’ low self-confidence in mathematics, which influences their economic opportunities later in life. According to UNICEF’s report, biological factors cannot explain the disparities in mathematical abilities between boys and girls, while sociocultural influences like gender stereotypes can. In fact, girls perform better in mathematics in more gender-equal societies, which can affect future education and career choices. ¹⁴⁶ Acknowledging gender inequalities in education is even more relevant in face of the effects of school closures during the pandemic. School closures led to tens of millions of girls around the world to lose access to education, putting them at greater risk of child marriage and pregnancy.

Gender

In 2022, the global gender gap has been recorded to be at 68.1%, meaning that at the current rate of progress, it will take 132 years to reach full parity. ¹⁴⁷ Harmful social norms and structures were reinforced by the COVID-19 pandemic leading to higher disparities, particularly in the workforce and share of care as well as higher rates of violence and discrimination against women and girls. Shifting from harmful social norms goes hand-in-hand with women's and girls’ empowerment, of which progress can be understood by their participation and access across the political, health, educational, and economic dimensions.

While women and girls are systematically disadvantaged by gender inequality, toxic notions of gender norms and roles expose boys and men to life-threatening risks. ¹⁴⁸ According to the International Men and Gender Equality Survey (IMAGES), inequitable gendered roles and ideas about masculinity and manhood persist. ¹⁴⁹ Although norms are changing, younger men rarely have more gender-equitable attitudes than older men. ¹⁵⁰ Boys who experience their fathers as engaged in care are more likely to be engaged themselves later, while boys who are exposed to harmful gender stereotypes like violence are more likely to be violent themselves. ¹⁵¹

While the number of children and adolescent mothers is declining worldwide, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) notes that this is slower than expected. ¹⁵² A girl’s pregnancy can carry serious and long-lasting consequences, embodying a grave violation of human rights even if the circumstances make it appear acceptable or desirable. Important determinants that drive adolescent pregnancy include a lack of services for sexual and reproductive health, inaccessible education, and limited economic opportunities. Harmful social and gender norms, structural gender inequality, and discrimination play a vital role as well. ¹⁵³ Effective policies and programs take into consideration the geographical distribution and the adolescent childbearing timing, frequency, and quantity. Interventions include keeping girls in school, tackling gender norms, and reducing extreme poverty also through employment. Comprehensive multisectoral approaches include education on sexual and reproductive health and life skills, mentoring, and cash transfers. Prioritizing access to health services and contraception and community outreach, prevention of intimate partner violence also plays a vital role. ¹⁵⁴

Gender gaps in political, economic, educational, and health dimensions show the impact of social norms and values on women’s ability to access the labor market and exercise control over resources. In this respect, the Global Gender Gap Index has identified the emergence of a crisis in the workforce to the detriment of women’s labor participation. This results from the accumulated effects of the 2008 global financial crisis’ austerity measures, geopolitical conflict, climate change, and the current cost-of-living increases. ¹⁵⁵ While the gender gap in the labor market has come to the lowest level at 62.9%, unemployment rates have increased and remain consistently higher for women. While the burden of care work increased for all, this has been by three times more for women than men. This trend is likely to increase because of the cost-of-living increases, and it is expected to impact women’s well-being even further as they are already more likely to experience higher levels of stress. In being decision makers, more women are in leadership roles than before, although they are nearly absent in under-feminized economic sectors including science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), where the gap in access to lifelong education is the widest.

While the widest gender gaps persist in STEM areas, the health and care sector shows relevant gender gaps as well. Women account for 63.8% and 75.3% of workforce in low-middle-income and high-income countries, respectively, and wages in this sector are lower compared to other economic sectors (see Health). ¹⁵⁶ A report conducted by WHO and ILO, observed that there is both horizontal and vertical segregation—women are predominant in lower wage jobs while the largest wage-gap is in male-dominated areas. ¹⁵⁷ COVID-19 underplayed progress toward gender pay parity while it impacted workers in the lower pay scale most. Much of the wage gap is not justified by factors that determine wages in the labor market, pointing to other factors, including discrimination. One of the major factors that accounts for the gap is life events, in particular motherhood, which undermines a woman’s wages for the rest of her working life.

One of the most useful available tools to close the gender pay gap is pay transparency legislation. This includes gender pay audits and implementing measures that enact the employee’s right to request information on pay difference. Social dialogue between institutions, employers, and workers is a key enabler to the efficacy of pay transparency measures. ¹⁵⁸ Digitalization of these services and having an employee representative as a mediator is also important. Other policy measures, identified as beneficial to close the gender pay gap in the health sector, and other sectors too, are to invest to address poor working conditions, promote STEM careers for young women, equalize the gender balance across categories and promote women in leadership roles, standardizing working conditions between women and men with respect to contracts, redress the motherhood pay gap and facilitate the transition of workers from the informal to formal economy. ¹⁵⁹ Particularly relevant to sectors that require complex value chain supplies, including the health sector, ILO developed a guide to effectively create gender-responsive approaches to value chain development. ¹⁶⁰ Besides implementing policies and legislation to counter the gender inequality trends in the labor market, it is also important to increase women’s political participation, where the gap remains the widest, compared to other dimensions, at 88%. ¹⁶¹

The importance of women’s participation in the political sphere has been further demonstrated in relation to measures taken by governments to counter the increasing rates of violence against women and girls (VAWG) that emerged during COVID-19. Renamed the ‘shadow pandemic’, VAWG is strongly associated with leadership inequalities, unpaid care, and women’s economic security. According to a recent study published by UNDP and UN Women, 163 countries adopted 856 measures to address the shadow pandemic. The report further observed that countries with strong feminist movements adopted on average three more measures addressing VAWG than those with weak feminist movements. In line with prepandemic dynamics, a combination of strong democratic institutions, a higher representation of women in parliament, and strong feminist movements were associated with a greater number of gender-sensitive measures during the pandemic. ¹⁶²

At the 50th session of the HRC, several resolutions relevant to achieving gender equality were adopted. One focused on the elimination of female genital mutilation ¹⁶³ and the second called for action on the elimination of all forms of discrimination of women and girls. ¹⁶⁴ In addition, WHO called to recognize and frame menstruation as a health issue, not a hygiene issue, highlighting the importance among others access to information and education, menstrual products, and facilities and the destigmatization of it. ¹⁶⁵

In face of the mounting challenges, the UN HCR, UNICEF, the World Food Programme (WFP), and UNDP have published strategies, policies, and reports on gender equality.^{166,167,168,169} Building from lessons learned in 2021, UNICEF plans to improve girls’ well-being and empowerment by countering rising trends of VAWG, scaling up quality maternal health care and preventing malnutrition, and promoting equitable learning opportunities while involving young people in decision-making processes.^{15, 16} UNDP is planning to gender mainstream across six solution areas: resilience to the economic and climate crisis, governance, poverty and inequality, environment, energy, and gender equality, which are all aligned with UNDP’s identified enablers of finance, digitalization, and innovation. ¹⁷⁰ WFP is to introduce measures to enhance women and girls’ equitable participation, as well as their protection for safety, dignity, and meaningful access to food, strengthen their leadership and decision-making roles, and address social norms and structural barriers through transformative change, which is critical amid the cost of living crisis. ¹⁷¹

Ensuring the full and equal inclusion of women and girls in all spheres of society and across the world should be a key pillar in all economic recovery plans following the economic and social disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing climate crisis, and current cost-of-living increases. Harmful gender norms and roles need to be tackled within households as well as at the local, regional, and national political levels including societal and political pushback against anti-feminist movements to ensure well-being and prosperity for all genders. National governments and UN organizations must work hand in hand and exchange knowledge with other countries on effective policies to reduce the gender (pay) gap.