Probabilistic fatigue damage prognosis using surrogate models trained via three-dimensional finite element analysis

Utilizing inverse uncertainty quantification techniques, structural health monitoring (SHM) can be integrated with damage progression models to form a probabilistic prediction of a structure’s remaining useful life (RUL). However, damage evolution in realistic structures is physically complex. Accurately representing this behavior requires high-fidelity models which are typically computationally prohibitive. In this paper, high-fidelity fatigue crack growth simulation times are reduced by three orders of magnitude using a model based on a set of surrogate models trained via three-dimensional finite element analysis. The developed crack growth modeling approach is experimentally validated using SHM-based damage diagnosis data. A probabilistic prediction of RUL is formed for a metallic, single-edge notch tension specimen with a fatigue crack growing under mixed-mode conditions.