Using original data and ordinary least squares regression analysis, this article examines primary turnout for elections to the House of Representatives in 1992 and 1994. These data are compared to earlier estimates of primary turnout that used a substitute measure. The author finds that the previous measure biased regression coefficients, inaccurately estimating the impact of political party and overestimating the influence of some variables while failing to capture the effects of others. Future research ought to rely on the new measure, used here, because substantive conclusions drawn from analyses that use the old measure are in jeopardy.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Abramson, P. R.
, Aldrich J. H., & Rohde, D. W. (1995). Change and continuity in the 1992 elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
2.
Beck, P. A.
(1997). Party politics in America. New York: Longman.
3.
Black, E.
, & Black, M. (1992). Southern politics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
4.
Burden, B. C.
, & Ezra, M. (1999). Voter turnout in house primary elections. Electoral Studies, 18, 89-99.
5.
Conway, M.
(1981). Political participation in midterm congressional elections. American Politics Quarterly, 9(2), 221-244.
6.
Erikson, R. S.
, Wright, G. C., & McIver, J. (1993). Statehouse democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
7.
Flanigan, W. H.
, & Zingale, N. H. (1994). Political behavior of the American electorate. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
8.
Herrnson, P. S.
(1995). Congressional elections: Campaigning at home and in Washington. Washington, DC: CQ Press.
9.
Jewell, M. E.
(1984a). Northern state gubernatorial primary elections: Explaining voter turnout. American Politics Quarterly, 12, 101-116.
10.
Jewell, M. E.
(1984b). Parties and primaries: Nominating state governors. New York: Praeger.
11.
Kenney, P. J.
(1986). Explaining primary turnout: the senatorial case. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 11, 65-73.
12.
Kenney, P. J.
, & Rice, T. W. (1986). The effect of contextual forces on turnout in congressional primaries. Social Science Quarterly, 67, 329-336.
13.
Knack, S.1995. Does motor voter work? Evidence from state-level data. Journal of Politics, 57, 796-811.
14.
Norrander, B.
(1986). Measuring primary turnout in aggregate analyses. Political Behavior, 8(4), 356-373.
15.
Petrocik, J.1987. Voter turnout and electoral preferences. In K. Schlozman (Ed.), Elections in America. New York: Allen and Unwin.
16.
Piven, F. F.
, & Cloward, R. A. (1989). Government statistics and conflicting explanations of nonvoting. PS: Political Science and Politics, 22, 580-588.
17.
Radcliff, B.
(1994). Turnout and the democratic vote. American Politics Quarterly, 22(3), 259-276.
18.
Rhine, S. L.
(1995). Registration reform and turnout change in the American states. American Politics Quarterly, 23(4), 409-426.
19.
Rosenstone, S. J.
, & Hansen, J. M. (1993). Mobilization, participation and democracy in America. New York: Macmillan.
20.
Rosenstone, S. J.
, & Wolfinger, R. E. (1980). Who votes?New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
