Lifting the Hood on the Straight-talk Express

Abstract

As Arizona Senator John McCain emerged to win the New Hampshire and Michigan Republican primaries, much was made of his distinctive campaign tactics. Most notably, the press pointed to his willingness to open himself up to the media and voters. The authors argue that McCain's success was less tactical and idiosyncratic than has been suggested. McCain's rise was fueled by a confluence of circumstances. First, there was a latent pool of support for an antiestablishment, reformist candidate. Second, several high profile competitors departed right as McCain began his book tour and the New Hampshire primary started receiving attention. Third, for a variety of reasons, McCain was able to use subsequent free media attention to increase his support in New Hampshire and other primary states. Finally, the structure of the initial contests—open primaries in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan—allowed reformist-minded independents to vote alongside registered Republicans.

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Abramson, P. R. , Aldrich, J. H. , Paolino, P. , & Rohde, D. W. (1992). “Sophisticated” voting in the 1988 presidential primaries. The American Political Science Review, 86, 55-69.

Alvarez, R. M. (1997). Information and elections. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Bartels, L. M. (1988). Presidential primaries: The dynamics of public choice. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Brown, C. W. , Powell, L. W. , & Wilcox, C. (1995). Serious money: Fundraising and contributing in presidential nomination campaigns. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Cahoon, L. S. , & Hinich, M. J. (1976). A method for locating targets using range only. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 22(2), 217-225.

Cahoon, L. S. , Hinich, M. J. , & Ordeshook, P. (1978). A statistical multidimensional scaling method based on the spatial theory of voting. In P. C. Chang (Ed.), Geographical representation of multidimensional data (pp. 243-278). San Diego: Academic Press.

Crouse, T. (1974). The boys on the bus. New York: Ballantine.

Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of democracy. New York: Harper and Row.

Endersby, J. , & Hinich, M. J. (1992). The stability of voter perceptions: A comparison of candidate voter positions across time using the spatial theory of voting. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 16(8/9), 67-84.

10.

Enelow, J. , & Hinich, M. J. (1984). The spatial theory of voting. New York: Cambridge University Press.

11.

Hadley, C. D. , & Stanley, H. W. (1996). The southern super Tuesday. In W. G. Mayer (Ed.), In pursuit of the White House: How we choose our presidential nominees (pp. 158-189). Chatham, NJ: Chatham House.

12.

MacKuen, M. , Erikson, R. S. , Stimson, J. A. , & Ostrom, C. W., Jr. (1992). Question wording and macropartisanship. American Political Science Review, 86, 475-486.

13.

Mayer, W. G. , & Hagen, M. G. (2000). The modern politics of presidential selection: How changing the rules really did change the game. In W. G. Mayer (Ed.), In pursuit of the White House 2000: How we choose our presidential nominees (1-59). Chatham, NJ: Chatham House.

14.

Norrander, B. (1992). Super Tuesday: Regional politics and presidential primaries. Lexington: University of Kentucky Press.

15.

Patterson, T. (1993). Out of order. New York: Knopf.

16.

Polsby, N. W. (1983). Consequences of party reform. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

17.

Ranney, A. (1975). Curing the mischief of faction: Party reform in America. Berkeley: University of California Press.

18.

Robinson, M. J. , & Sheehan, M. A. (1983). Over the wire and on TV: CBS and UPI in Campaign `80. New York: Basic Books.

19.

Shaw, D. R. (1999). A study of presidential campaign effects from 1952 to 1992. Journal of Politics, 61, 387.